The climate phenomenon El Niño is expected to be "the most intense" observed in over a century, an expert from the British Met Office warned today, confirming the predictions of most experts.
El Niño is a temporary natural phenomenon, amplified by human-induced global warming, recurring every two to seven years and translating into warmer and drier climates in some areas and cooler and wetter in others, causing extreme weather events.
"I have never seen such a phenomenon outlined in our forecasts (...). We are expecting the most intense El Niño episode in more than a century, at its peak it will exceed three degrees (sea surface temperature rise in a Pacific reference zone), which is unprecedented in modern climate data," Aidham Scaif, in charge of long-term forecasts for the British Met Office, told the BBC.
He underlined that the consequences will be "particularly strong around the Tropics", with extreme droughts in South America and the western Pacific, adding that the turbulence will nevertheless be felt even in the United Kingdom.
"We are also already seeing signs that rain and storms will strengthen here in the UK towards November," as well as across northwestern Europe, the expert said.
According to the predictions of the Met Office and other experts, the extent of the El Niño phenomenon could make 2027 the hottest year on record, with its consequences mainly felt next year.
What is El Niño
El Niño is a climate cycle characterized by unusually high ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Warmer waters transfer huge amounts of heat into the atmosphere through clouds and heavy rainfall, subsequently affecting weather systems across the planet.
The effects can be very different from region to region. Usually, El Niño favors drought in Indonesia and Australia, while it can cause heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of South America.
The intensity of the phenomenon is determined by how much higher the sea surface temperature in a particular area of the tropical Pacific is compared to the average. This year, scientists estimate that the deviation will exceed 2,5 degrees Celsius.
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