THE COST OF THE WAR WITH IRAN AND THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS - Filenews 5/3
By William Hartung
The war that broke out between Iran and Israel, with the support of the United States, has now evolved into a conflict that spreads throughout the Middle East. Since February 28, airstrikes have spread to various countries in the region, including Lebanon, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, hitting military bases, Israeli cities and even an elementary school in Iran. The attacks have left more than 1.000 victims, with most of the victims recorded in Iran and Lebanon.
The situation is constantly escalating, with Iran's leadership declaring that it will close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical sea route for transporting oil, raising serious concerns for international markets. The attacks then expanded to strategic targets, such as the US embassy in Saudi Arabia and an Apple data center. At the same time, US President Donald Trump has previously announced the continuation of the bombings, while the US expects more losses in the ranks of its soldiers.
The cost of this conflict, both in human lives and in economic resources, is difficult to calculate exactly, given the constant escalation. However, as observed in previous wars, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan, early cost estimates turned out to be significantly lower than the final burden borne by the United States. In Afghanistan, for example, estimates were for a rapid war, but it ultimately lasted more than 20 years, causing more than $8 trillion in costs, including long-term obligations to care for veterans.
According to the Institute for Policy Studies, the U.S. spends over $59 million a day to move military forces in the region, while the cost of bombs and missiles is constantly increasing. This situation, combined with the possibility of an increase in oil prices due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, may cause serious economic consequences worldwide. Post-conflict retaliation and reconstruction costs add new burdens to the U.S. budget and its citizens.
Iran, despite President Trump's assurances that the country will develop a nuclear capability, takes years to build nuclear bombs. Initial estimates of the duration and cost of the war are already completely different from the actual consequences. Iran's agreement to curb its nuclear program, which was interrupted by the Trump administration, seemed like a possible solution to avoid an uncontrolled military conflict.
The lesson to be learned from this conflict is clear: the use of force does not usually bring the desired results, and its costs are usually greater than any short-term benefits. With the war continuing, the restoration of peace and the reduction of humanitarian and economic costs seem more distant than ever.
