The world remains on alert, with concerns intensifying about a new energy shock, with analysts not yet able to determine the size of the impact, since they will depend on how long the conflict in the Middle East lasts.
At the same time, the US has made important decisions to ensure the free passage of the Strait of Hormuz, since this is the biggest concern in terms of energy at the moment.
For Cyprus, the first estimates speak of a gradual increase in the price of fuel at gas stations, which is estimated to be around 6 to 7 cents and this in case oil internationally fluctuates close to $90 per barrel. If oil approaches $100 a barrel, the impact will be even greater.
Prices remain high
Yesterday, a slight decline was recorded in TTF gas prices in the Netherlands hub, but also in Brent oil prices, but prices remain much higher than the levels before the start of the new conflict.
Specifically, Brent oil moved yesterday around $81 per barrel, remaining at high levels compared to previous weeks, while European natural gas TTF stands at around €51 per MWh, according to data from international energy markets.
Prices fluctuate sharply as investors assess the impact of escalation in the Middle East and the potential risk of disruptions to global energy supply.
Compared to the levels before the start of the conflict, the increase is noticeable. Brent was moving close to $72 per barrel, while European natural gas TTF was at around €32 per MWh. This means that within a few days the price of oil increased by about $9-10 per barrel, while natural gas strengthened by about €20 per MWh.
Investors are looking for
Economists and analysts have already warned of an imminent increase in inflation, which will drag up interest rates, with the ramifications touching every economy, every country and every household.
According to Reuters, investors have already begun to prepare for the possibility of a protracted conflict in the Middle East, with the biggest fears being a new wave of inflation.
Inflation concerns remain at the top of their list, while the possibility of a change in monetary policy is now looming, possibly resulting in the abandonment of plans for interest rate cuts or even a return to increases.
American Insurance for the Straits
Iran has already attacked energy facilities in the Gulf countries and at the same time is blocking the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important maritime corridors for transporting oil and gas, mainly for Asian markets.
The bet at the moment is to continue the flows from the Persian Gulf, in order to avoid further increases in prices and to avoid the energy and inflationary shock.
The US has already announced measures to ensure the smooth transport of oil from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
In particular, the US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessed, announced yesterday a series of measures to stabilize the region but also to secure the shipping companies, which, in addition to the concern for the safety of their seafarers and ships, also had to face cancellations in their insurance policies to cover "war risk", instructing their ships to sail in "safe waters".
According to Mr. Bessed, the US Government will proceed with the provision of insurance for tankers and cargo ships operating in the Gulf region, adding that this insurance will be provided by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the US state development bank.
The announcements came a day after US President Donald Trump wrote in Truth Social that he had instructed the American Development Finance Association (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially in the energy sector, passing through the Gulf.
In fact, the US President had said something else important regarding the safety of ships in the Persian Gulf, since, as he wrote in the same message, "if necessary, the US Navy will escort the tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Whatever happens, the US will ensure the free passage of energy to the world."
