Filenews 31 December 2025
Donald Trump said he could not rule out the possibility of a US war with Venezuela, while the possibility of a new Israel-Iran conflict in the coming months remains in the foreground, in a scenario that could bring 2026 in front of two war fronts with wider international implications.
On December 29, Trump met with Benjamin Netanyahu, with reports indicating that the Israeli prime minister informed the US president of the possibility of another attack on Iran. Washington intervened in June, ending the "12-Day War" by bombing underground Iranian nuclear facilities and intercepting Iranian missiles and drones fired at Israel.
However, according to the text, if the US becomes involved in a "precise" conflict with Venezuela in 2026, its military resources will be limited, which may reduce its ability to support Israel in practice in the event of a new war with Iran.
Israeli officials, according to an Axios report, have alerted the Trump administration over an Iranian missile exercise, expressing fears that it could be a cover for an attack on Israel. After the "12-Day War", Tehran reportedly rushed to rebuild and expand its missile program, while Israel now views the Iranian missile program as a much greater threat.
In the same context, it is reported that Iranian officials have openly stated that, in a subsequent war, they will have the ability to hit Israel with even 2,000 missiles in a single attack, almost four times the number of missiles fired during the "12-Day War".
Netanyahu, during his visit to the White House, may have asked for support for another pre-emptive Israeli attack on the Iranian missile program. The text argues that if U.S.-Venezuela tensions escalate into a military conflict in the meantime, Washington may not be able to support Israel to the extent it did in June.
The analysis points out that a conflict aimed at overthrowing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro could develop into a stalemate, comparable to the expensive and controversial war in Iraq (2003-11). While the U.S. is expected to prevail in conventional battles, the scenario of prolonged operations to suppress militia insurgency is presented as a possibility, noting that Venezuela is twice the size of Iraq.
Even in the initial conventional phase, the US Navy could use a large number of Tomahawk and Standard air defense missiles (SM-2, SM-3, SM-6), with the text highlighting that the US has already used huge quantities of these missiles after October 2023 in the Middle East.
It is reported that in January 2024 alone, the US launched 80 Tomahawks against the Houthis in Yemen, while Tomahawk production in recent years has ranged from 55 to 90 new missiles per year. In addition, since January 2025, the US Navy has launched at least 120 SM-2s, 80 SM-6s and 20 SM-3s and Evolved Sea Sparrow to repel Houthi drones and missiles.
The text adds that the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower launched 155 Standard missiles and 135 Tomahawks during a 9-month mission that ended in mid-2025. In Operation Midnight Hammer, the US strike against the Iranian nuclear program, 30 Tomahawks were fired at a facility in Isfahan. In the same war, the U.S. reportedly launched about 80 ballistic missile interceptor SM-3s and about 150 THAAD interceptors, costing about $10 million each. Israel, according to the text, also used a significant number of Arrow 3 missiles.
Particular reference is made to Trump's decision to order the USS Gerald R. Ford to move from the Mediterranean to South America in October, with the text noting that there are no longer any US aircraft carriers near the Middle East, unlike previous periods where there were even two at the same time in the region.
In conclusion, it is pointed out that a war in Venezuela could undermine the ability of the US to immediately send air and naval means to the Middle East, in the event of a new Israel-Iran conflict, which would be an advantage for Iran due to fewer US defense assets in the field. As reported, no one can rule out the possibility of simultaneous wars in the Middle East and South America within 2026, with an impact around the world.
