Filenews 3 August 2021
Major reversals have brought about the Delta mutation - which now prevails in 70% of cases heading towards absolute domination - while causing intense concern about what will develop in the coming autumn and winter. At the same time, infections even vaccinated have created a parallel... wave of reasonable questions about the new, more infectious strain, but also the effectiveness of vaccines.
Below are the secrets the scientific community has unlocked about the Indian mutation, the latest data on vaccines, and the pandemic challenges of the immediate future.
How infectious is the Delta mutation?
Far more infectious than previous mutations of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses, according to an internal briefing paper from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), revealed by The Washington Post. In more detail it is reported to be more contagious than all MERS, SARS, Ebola, the common cold, seasonal influenza and measles, while it is just as contagious as chicken pox. What's that supposed to mean? According to the CDC, every case bearing the Delta strain transmits the virus to 8 to 9 people on average. By comparison, last year each case of COVID-19 transmitted the virus to 2 people on average, so SARS-CoV-2 looked more like a common contagion cold.
How does the Delta mutation affect the "wall of immunity"?
The percentage of a population that must have become immune in order to develop herd immunity varies according to the disease, as the professors of the EKPA, Dimitris Paraskevi and Thanos Dimopoulos (rector of the EKPA) analyse in an earlier briefing note. For example, a highly infectious disease, such as measles, requires an immunity rate of more than 95% of the population in order to limit the transmission of the disease and achieve herd immunity. This is why scientists' estimates of the necessary vaccination coverage rate are gradually increasing, now reporting more than 80% or even 90%.
Why do vaccinated people get infected?
In Los Angeles, USA, the rate of COVID-19 infections in fully vaccinated people was 2% in March, 5% in April, 11% in May and reached 20% in June 2021. One explanation is that constant exposure to high virus loads, i.e. very high-risk contacts, can lead to infection even those fully vaccinated with a strong immune response. It is recalled that studies have shown that the virus load after infection with the Indian mutation is a thousand times greater than the first pandemic strain. This explains that vaccinated people also transmit the virus, but less often.
What are the suspected symptoms?
The symptoms of the 4th wave differ significantly from those recorded during the previous waves. In particular, the manifestations that characterize the strain "Delta" are investigated by clinicians and researchers in real-world conditions, i.e. when patients vaccinated and unvaccinated seek medical help. So according to the data they have collected, runny nose, persistent cough, sore throat, headache, fever or diarrhea are the suspect signs that someone is infected with the new mutation. However, the symptoms are milder and last less in the vaccinated, as experts observe.
How much do vaccines protect us from the new strain?
'The likelihood of someone being infected after exposure to the virus 14 days after receiving both doses of the vaccines is up to three times lower than if they had not been vaccinated. Then, after a vaccinated person is infected, the chance of getting a serious disease is reduced by eight times than if he had not been vaccinated," Assistant Professor of Epidemiology Gikas Magiorkini notes in a recent briefing of the EKPA. Meanwhile, scientists at Yale University School of Medicine stress that the question of whether the new strain causes a more serious disease remains unanswered. In this context, they cite research in Scotland showing that the risk of hospitalisation for unvaccinated people is doubled.
Which regions around the world seem to be most affected today by this mutation?
Asia and Australia seem to have the dreary lead at the moment, although the rate of increase in new cases is worrying everywhere - after all, in Europe and the US by the end of the summer this strain will be the absolute dominant and responsible for almost 90% of cases.
Can the Delta mutation affect the economic recovery path in the eurozone and elsewhere?
Already, the ECB has decided to continue loose monetary policy and zero interest rates "for as long as necessary", while the possibility of extending the government bond-buying programme beyond March 2022, when it officially ends, remains open. This picture reflects the concerns that exist in the administration, despite the fact that, on the basis of the data, the economic recovery appears to be faster - which is also the case in the US and Britain.
Is there any chance that the restraining order will come back and lockdowns because of Delta?
The chief US epidemiologist, Anthony Faucci, said that based on current data and forecasts made, he does not believe his country will return to this kind of regime. Similar statements have been made in most European countries, by governments and competent committees of epidemiologists and infectious diseases - no one, however, can predict with certainty whether and when the 'red line' that will reverse the situation will be overcome.
Will a third, booster dose be required to deal with the looming resurgence of the pandemic due to the Delta mutation?
Although Israel has already started this process, while other countries are considering this scenario, the WHO and most experts insist that the key is not in the third tranche for fully vaccinated people, but in two other points: on the one hand, the acceleration of vaccinations in the poorest countries, which remain fertile ground for the development of new mutations and , on the other hand, the drastic restriction of those who persist in their opposition to vaccines against Covid-19.
How do large pharmaceutical companies respond to the situation that is being created?
The companies have declared themselves ready to respond to the increased demand, to provide a third booster dose if required and approved, while continuing their investigations to make new batches of vaccines more effective against all mutations. They note, however, that the demand is now much higher, and demand is constantly increasing.
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