In her State of the EU address on 16 September 2026, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set an ambitious but clear goal: To double the share of electricity in Europe's final consumption by 2040, so that the EU can drastically reduce its fossil fuel import bill and strengthen its energy independence.
She stressed that the EU cannot remain an industrial power if energy prices are structurally high and that the answer lies in the electrification of the European economy, with clean, domestic production from renewable energy sources, nuclear energy and other technology-neutral solutions, accompanied by investments in networks, interconnections and storage.
For a small, hitherto electrically isolated economy like Cyprus, such a European strategy is not an abstract slogan, but a very concrete challenge. To determine how much additional net electric power and what mix of technologies is required to support the full electrification of our country.
Full electrification means much more than "more photovoltaics and storage". It means that gradually transport, heating and cooling of buildings, part of the industry and a significant part of fuel production, such as green hydrogen, will be transferred to the electricity system.
This implies an increase in annual electricity demand from current levels of the order of a few terawatt hours to levels above 30-35 terawatt hours in the long term, if we really want to replace fossil fuels in transport, heating-cooling and industry with electric and hydrogen-powered solutions. How much electrical power is needed cannot be answered with a simple number, but with a coherent picture of how much demand increases when all energy sectors are electrified and how this is met on an annual basis with reliable, clean generation units.
This is exactly where the conclusions of our recent study emerge, which comprehensively examines electricity, water, transport and the hydrogen economy in 2026-2060. Even if the technical potential of photovoltaic systems is fully utilized, there is a practical limit of around 7000 megawatts of installed capacity due to limited available land and restrictions on the transmission grid.
In the "renewables only" scenario, this power leads to an annual electricity production of about 15 terawatt hours around 2060, sufficient to decarbonize electricity, fuel desalination, and produce significant amounts of green hydrogen, but not to support a fully electrified economy with mass electrification, electric heating, and electricity exports.
In other words, even if we fill every available square meter with photovoltaics and make the most of storage systems, the technical cap on renewable energy capacity alone is not enough to simultaneously meet increased demand for electricity, water through desalination, hydrogen production and energy exports.
In the mixed scenario "renewable energy sources and small modular reactors (SMRs)", the total installed capacity of photovoltaic systems remains at the limit of 7000 megawatts, but is gradually added up to about 2860 megawatts of power from SMRs, offering stable and at the same time flexible, non-interruptible production.
Annual electricity production in the mixed scenario jumps to about 37 terawatt hours by 2060, more than twice as much as in the "renewable energy only" scenario, allowing not only a complete decarbonization of electricity production but also significant demand coverage in transport, industry, heating-cooling and hydrogen production, without cutting back on renewable energy production.
These results show in numbers that the full electrification of the economy of Cyprus requires a total net capacity of several gigawatts beyond the technical limit of renewable energy sources, in order to ensure reliability and the ability to export energy.
Boosting installed capacity, however, is not enough if Cyprus remains energy isolated. Future electrical interconnections with Greece and, by extension, with the single European electricity market can turn excess net production into an exportable energy product. Annual exports, due to price coupling, could amount to about 1 terawatt hour in the "renewable energy only" scenario and about 3 terawatt hours in the "renewable energy sources and small modular reactors" scenario by 2060.
Thus, the additional net capacity from renewable energy sources and SMRs not only covers the full electrification of Cyprus' domestic economy, but also creates an "electric corridor" to the EU, aligned with the European Grids Package and projects of common interest that reduce renewable energy cuts and enhance security of supply.
The political dimension of these figures is equally important. The full electrification of Cyprus requires a national energy strategy over decades, cross-sectoral planning (electricity, transport, heating-cooling, water, hydrocarbons, hydrogen), institutional continuity independent of governments and cross-party agreements on technology options, such as the consideration of the possibility of developing small modular reactors, storage systems, electrical interconnections, hydrogen infrastructure and networks.
Serious discussion is needed not only on renewables and storage, but also on the need for stable clean power and the geo-economic dimension of interconnections, with evidence-based, transparent and societal involvement.
The debate on electricity prices, subsidies and short-term measures must not distract us from the basic fact that, without sufficient clean electricity, beyond the limit of renewable energy sources and without reliable interconnections, there can be neither energy security nor a competitive economy in an electrified world. Cyprus has the opportunity to design its 2060 energy system from today.
* Professor of Energy Systems, Frederick University
