Airlines internationally are reviewing the aggressive growth plans they had adopted in the previous period, as the skyrocketing cost of fuel puts increasing pressure on their profitability.
From Europe to the United States, major airline groups are freezing capacity increases, removing flights from their schedules and rethinking low-performance routes, looking for a new balance between supply, cost and revenue.
Aviation is an industry accustomed to strong turbulence, which, according to market players, occurs almost every five years. The current situation, however, does not have the characteristics of a pandemic, when aviation activity was essentially frozen.
Demand remains active. What has changed drastically is the equalization of costs, with the main problem being the rally in fuel prices, which is directly linked to the war in the Middle East and the turbulence in energy markets and supply networks.
At 350 billion dollars the expenditure on fuel
The impact on the industry is immediate, as fuel is already one of the largest operating cost categories. The International Air Transport Association estimates that in 2026 it will account for 31.4% of the total operating costs of airlines.
The industry's total spending on jet fuel is expected to reach about $350 billion, forcing administrations to scale back their growth plans.
Aegean limits capacity
Typical is the case of Aegean, which had entered 2026 with a goal of increasing capacity by 7%-9%, but has already significantly revised its plan.
As Eftihis Vassilakis stated in a recent teleconference with analysts, in the third quarter the increase in available mileage seats was limited to about 2%-2.5%. For the fourth quarter, a change of between -1% and +1% is expected, which essentially corresponds to zero capacity growth.
The same discipline is expected to be maintained in 2027. Based on the current data, the administration does not foresee a substantial increase in the capacity of the fleet and leaves open the possibility of selective frequency reductions on domestic and international routes.
Mr. Vassilakis estimated that fuel represents about 20%-22% of an airline's cost, pointing out that the additional burden can hardly be covered solely through higher fares.
For Aegean, the net impact from more expensive fuels and emission allowances amounted to €40 million in the first half of the year, even after the benefit from the hedging operations.
Lufthansa cuts 20,000 flights
Aegean is not an isolated case. A similar strategy is followed by several of Europe's largest airlines.
At Lufthansa, the cuts are already evident, as around 20,000 short-haul flights — mostly unprofitable — are being removed from the summer schedule until October.
At the same time, the group is limiting capacity and accelerating changes to its fleet by retiring older aircraft and reducing the use of less efficient types. These moves are estimated to save more than 40,000 tons of jet fuel.
At IAG, the parent company of British Airways, Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus, planning for 2026 has also become more conservative. The group now predicts that total capacity will remain at 2025 levels.
Already in the first half of the year, the supply of seats in Europe had fallen by 2.8%, while Iberia and Vueling limited part of their flights. Aer Lingus reduced its schedule by 6%, mainly cutting back on routes with a lower profit margin.
Air France-KLM has cut its capacity growth forecast for 2026 to 2%-3%, while on short- and medium-haul flights it now expects a decrease of about 1%. At the same time, it leaves open the possibility of new changes to the winter program, if fuel prices remain high.
Cuts in low-cost companies
Low-cost airlines are moving in the same direction. Ryanair has lowered its passenger target for the 2027 fiscal year from 216 million. to 214 million passengers and decided not to substantially increase its winter capacity.
Wizz Air also announced a 5% reduction in planned winter capacity, despite the fact that about 80% of its fuel needs had already been met through compensation operations at lower prices.
American companies are also reviewing the programs
A similar picture prevails in the US, where American Airlines, United Airlines and Southwest are reviewing their schedules for the end of 2026 and 2027.
American Airlines estimates that the latest rise in fuel prices will increase its costs by about $1 billion in the fourth quarter. United has already removed flights from its schedule for December.
Airlines' moves show that tackling expensive jet fuel doesn't just go through higher fares or hedging energy risk. It now includes limiting supply, frequency cuts, and a stricter evaluation of the profitability of each route.
Capital.gr
