This year was undoubtedly better than last year and allowed for greater flexibility in the management of water resources. However, despite the significant increase in stocks compared to 2025, the technical assessments of the Water Development Department (WDD) show that in some of the country's most important water bodies, the stocks projected to remain at the end of 2026 and in the period 2027-2028 are still below the 35% safety level or have very limited room for management.
Cyprus continues to be in a state of increased water precariousness like all countries in both the Mediterranean and Central Europe.
The increased rainfall, with the significant inflows into the dams during the period January – May 2026, led to a partial improvement in the water picture. The country has gained valuable time and significantly improved its position, but the need for prudent management, water conservation, limitation of losses in the networks and strengthening of alternative sources of water supply remains absolutely necessary.
The positive picture formed in 2026 should not lead to complacency, but should be used as an opportunity to further strengthen the country's resilience against the effects of climate change and prolonged drought.
According to the WDD, the total reserves in the dams amount to 38.9% (113.1 million cubic meters – ECM), dangerously reaching the critical safety limit of 35%. The WDD warns that a further decline in stocks will substantially increase the risk of severe water scarcity for the years 2027 and 2028.
The dams of the Single Southern Pipeline Plan (ESNA) record an occupancy of only 36.1% (68.4 ECU), while the dams of Paphos are at 41.5% (29.7 ECU), while the safety limit set for large water bodies is 35%.
The WDD analysis over time shows that Cyprus is going through recurring 10-year cycles, consisting of 7 years of low inflows and 2-3 years of temporary recovery. This fact requires conservative management.
Despite the measures taken, the Paphos Large Irrigation Project (MAEP) shows depletion trends within the three-year period 2026-2028 due to increased water consumption.
Furthermore, water consumption is increasing, exceeding the initial targets. The WDD highlights the need for rigorous controls by Provincial Local Government Organizations (NGOs), reducing losses in networks, and implementing pricing tools.
The total occupancy of the dams today amounts to about 39%, compared to about 16% in the corresponding period last year. At the same time, the inflows of this hydrological year were particularly increased and significantly higher than those of previous years.
An important parameter in the maintenance of these reserves has been the contribution to date of more than 51 ECM of water from the total desalination plants in operation, of which 6 ECM of water concern supply from the four mobile units that have been put into operation in 2025 and 2026. These facts are indisputable and are a positive development for the country.
But what is often omitted is that the comparison is made with one of the worst periods of the last decades. The fact that occupancy doubled compared to 2025 does not mean that the reserves are at levels that allow unlimited water use.
The technocratic evaluation of the WDD, which was examined by the SEDY and formed the basis of the decisions of the Council of Ministers, set a minimum acceptable safety limit of occupancy of 35%. This limit results from the long-term experience of managing Cyprus' water resources and aims to maintain sufficient reserves so that the system can respond to successive dry years.
The question for the WDD is what the reserves will be at the end of this year and especially in the years 2027 and 2028, if conditions of low inflows are repeated, regardless of the strengthening of the balance with desalinated water. The scenarios that have been developed show that the objective of maintaining stocks above the safe limit is not achieved in all water bodies. In some cases, projected stocks fall below this level as early as the end of 2026 and remain at low levels over the next two years if arid years follow.
Another common mistake is focusing exclusively on the total number of dam occupancy. Cyprus does not function as a single dam. There are different water bodies with different possibilities, different requirements and different risks.
For example, the Integrated Southern Pipeline Plan had fallen from about 42% at the beginning of 2024 to just 10% at the beginning of 2026, while the Paphos Large Irrigation Project had decreased from about 54% at the beginning of 2024 to about 9% at the beginning of 2026, indicators that confirm both the diversity in use and the resilience of each system.
Despite the significant recovery recorded in 2026, these systems still require particularly careful management, precisely because they are called upon to serve millions of cubic meters of needs.
The WDD has developed scenarios with a time horizon until the end of 2028. The results showed that in the ESNA the safety margins remain limited, while in the Paphos Large Irrigation Project the reserves may be led to levels of almost depletion by the end of 2028. Increased water consumption, especially in Paphos, significantly affects the balance of reserves. As the WDD points out, a good year is not enough to undo the effects of several previous dry years.
Desalination is a critical factor
Desalination remains a critical pillar of the country's water security. In recent years, an extensive program has been implemented to support the production of desalinated water through mobile units.
Permanent desalination plants, until 2025, had the capacity to cover 70% of the ever-increasing water supply needs throughout Cyprus, amounting to 121 ECM of water, i.e. 85 ECM. With the inclusion of the mobile desalination units within 2026, an additional 9 ECM of water for water supply is expected to be covered, with the percentage amounting to 76%.
It is important to emphasize that over time, annual water supply needs increase by at least 5%, which reduces the contribution rates of desalination. To this end, the installation of additional units and the implementation of new permanent infrastructure in various areas of Cyprus by 2029 are being promoted.
These interventions are expected to significantly strengthen the country's water balance in the coming years. However, some projects are still in the implementation phase or are subject to permitting, legal or other administrative procedures, which creates reasonable uncertainties as to the exact timing of their inclusion in the system. For this reason, the management of water resources continues to be based on the precautionary principle and the maintenance of sufficient safety stocks until the full completion of the planning.
