The underlying vulnerability of international energy markets turns any bet against a price shock into an extremely risky option. The planet coped with the initial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by depleting decades of reserves, the replenishment of which requires a long series of years. Now, in the new explosive phase of the confrontation between the United States and Iran, Donald Trump is risking an empty tank, as political optimism is confronted with the inexorable reality of the market.
Strained relations between the United States and Iran are shaking international stability, leading to a surge in Brent oil.
In the first phase of the conflict, prices did not reach the catastrophic levels predicted by some analysts. This development led the White House to the erroneous conclusion that the global system is more resilient than doomsayers claim.
Shock-absorbing mechanisms have disappeared
Although prices remain lower than in previous wars, markets are under intense pressure. The relative stability in the first half of 2026 was based on stocks from previous decades, which are now critically depleted. The resurgence of hostilities, the re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi naval embargo against Saudi Arabia point to a faster spike in prices, as shock-absorbing mechanisms have disappeared.
At the beginning of the conflict, global reserves amounted to 8.4 billion barrels, but according to J.P. Morgan, only 800 million were immediately accessible without causing an operational crash in pipelines and refineries.
At the same time, U.S. strategic reserves shrank to 316 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983 — due to the largest coordinated release of 32 states in the history of the International Energy Agency (IEA), raising concerns about the resilience of the aging U.S. infrastructure.
The possibility of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz has been exhausted, while the Houthi blockade in Bab el-Mandeb threatens to force tankers to encircle Africa, more than doubling the cost.
The widespread drop in demand by 5 million barrels per day, mainly due to China's shift to electrification and the forced fuel rationing, offered a temporary breather, but a protracted conflict will once again test international government stability.
The Houthis brought a rise, but without creating panic
At the beginning of the conflict, global reserves amounted to 8.4 billion barrels, but according to J.P. Morgan, only 800 million were immediately accessible without causing an operational crash in pipelines and refineries.
At the same time, U.S. strategic reserves shrank to 316 million barrels — the lowest level since 1983 — due to the largest coordinated release of 32 states in the history of the International Energy Agency (IEA), raising concerns about the resilience of the aging U.S. infrastructure.
The possibility of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz has been exhausted, while the Houthi blockade in Bab el-Mandeb threatens to force tankers to encircle Africa, more than doubling the cost.
The widespread drop in demand by 5 million barrels per day, mainly due to China's shift to electrification and the forced fuel rationing, offered a temporary breather, but a protracted conflict will once again test international government stability.
The Houthis brought a rise, but without creating panic
The most immediate source of uncertainty is located in the Bab el-Madeb Strait, which global shipping and insurance organizations have designated as a high-risk zone for commercial activities. Oil prices have been rising since the Houthis declared a naval embargo on Saudi ships, but did not reach panic levels, reflecting the unpredictability of investors.
Severe shortages within a few weeks
However, the depletion of stocks and the escalation of tensions prescribe severe shortages in supply within a few weeks. Markets may remain calm in anticipation of a short-term de-escalation, but optimism cannot overcome the objective reality of supply and demand.
Market psychology was the last safeguard, as traders assumed that Donald Trump would back down in order to avoid a shortfall ahead of the election.
This assumption was refuted, as the IEA recorded natural crude changing hands near $150 in April.
Although Vice President J. D. Vance sought to replenish stocks during the truce, the goal failed. Now, the US president will shoulder the political cost of expensive gasoline, which may trigger panic markets.
The cost to consumers at the pump is for ready-made fuels, such as diesel, which affect food and transportation prices.
The crack spread has soared to a four-year high as Persian Gulf refineries remain inactive and Ukrainian strikes have forced Moscow to ban exports of Russian diesel.
The expected depletion of international reserves portends severe shortages in supply within a few weeks, which proves that the time frames for averting a generalized energy crisis have now narrowed dramatically.
naftemporiki.gr
