Putin's attempt to subjugate Ukraine faces a serious obstacle. The Russian president's strategy of exhausting his victim—with his much smaller population compared to Russia's—through a war of attrition, is not yielding the expected results.
Russia is losing more soldiers every month than it is recruiting. For the first time in about two years, Ukraine is gaining more territory than it is losing. Ukraine is strengthening its drone technology and expanding its capabilities in the missile sector. It also hits targets deeper inside Russia, hitting supply lines and destroying Moscow's oil infrastructure. Putin is fighting back by escalating attacks on political targets, especially in Kiev.
Most worryingly, Russia may be expanding its military operations beyond Ukraine. It has repeatedly issued threats against the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Both at the rhetorical level and through cyberattacks, while recently a Russian drone entered the territory of Lithuania. The Kremlin is making false accusations that could be used in the future as a pretext for new military attacks.
Putin may pull out of the drawer a ploy that Hitler had used against Czechoslovakia in 1938, claiming that citizens of German descent were suffering in the country. Putin will claim that Russian minorities are being persecuted and that, therefore, he must send troops to save them. Citizens of Russian origin make up about 25% of the population of Latvia and about 20% of Estonia.
Putin wants to split the EU and NATO and make Moscow the dominant power in Europe. Putin's plan is supported by the fact that extreme political forces – which stand against the US and Ukraine's independence – are gaining ground, especially in France and Germany. Would Donald Trump risk a war with Russia if Putin did indeed mobilize against a Baltic country, even if it is a member of NATO? Or even if Putin occupied one or two islands in the Baltic Sea that belong to Sweden, Finland or Denmark?
Putin estimates that Trump will be timid. After all, the US has sent its message by withdrawing forces and military equipment from Europe at a time when the Old Continent is facing the first real possibility of attack in decades. The cuts go far beyond a friendly push to increase defense spending by NATO member states. The US has told the North Atlantic Alliance that it intends to reduce by up to 50% the amount of military equipment it would have provided in the past in the event of an attack or threat of attack: an invitation to any future problems.
In 1950, US Secretary of State Dean Acheson, in a speech, excluded South Korea from the areas that Washington considered vital to its security. Seeing the opportunity, Moscow gave the green light to North Korea to attack the South. The war that broke out in defense of South Korea claimed the lives of 38.000 Americans and more than 2 million. Koreans.
Unfortunately, Washington's desire to strike a deal with a radical, terrorist Iranian government that has never kept a commitment that does not favour it will not act as a deterrent to its adversaries.
The US must strengthen its support for Ukraine and consolidate its alliance with the Europeans. None of this precludes the taking of appropriate measures to deter China. The only real obstacle is Washington's will to do what is necessary for the security of the U.S. and the Free World.
Forbes
