The El Niño phenomenon is expected to put our already overheated planet in the oven, which is estimated to be very strong this time, raising the mercury high, causing drought. The "super" El Niño is scheduled to start this fall, the director of the Department of Meteorology, Filippos Tymvios, told "F" and will last for months, before it leaves us. This will also affect our region, already overwhelmed by the climate crisis, as well as Cyprus.
"El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean and can affect the weather in a large part of the planet," he points out and clarifies that under normal conditions, the winds in the tropical Pacific push and accumulate the warm surface waters to the west, i.e. the region of Indonesia and Australia. The data changes during an El Niño episode, "the winds weaken and thus, warm waters spread towards the central and eastern Pacific, resulting in the warming of more areas as well as the change in sea currents".
The temperature of the sea, Mr. Tymvios clarifies, also affects the temperature of the atmosphere.
This year, he underlines, a "very strong El Niño" is expected, while clarifying that each episode is different "in terms of intensity, duration, the heating region in the Pacific, but also in the way the atmosphere reacts. The great peculiarity, today, is that a possible strong El Niño will manifest on a planet that is already warmer. This means that, even if the mechanism of El Niño is natural, its effects can be amplified by anthropogenic climate change."
Very strong incidents, Mr. Tymvios underlines, have also occurred in the past, such as in 1982 – 1983, 1997 – 1998 and 2015 – 2016. "Then we saw significant global impacts on temperature, rainfall, droughts and floods."
El Niño, however, is a natural phenomenon that has been occurring for many years. "It was not created by climate change. But today it does not manifest itself on a "neutral" planet, as it did 100 or 150 years ago. It manifests itself on a planet that has already warmed. So a strong El Niño can act as an additional boost on an already warm climate background. This is what interests us most: not only the phenomenon itself, but the environment in which it occurs," he underlines.
"The phenomenon returns irregularly, usually every 2 to 7 years", alternating between El Niño, La Niña cooling the ocean waters as well as neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The frequency with which they occur, emphasizes Mr. Tymvios, is not easy to determine if it has been shaken, however he said, "there are studies that show that extreme episodes of El Niño and La Niña may become more frequent by the end of the century. Probably from about one every 20 years to about one every 10 years. This mainly concerns extreme episodes and not necessarily every form of El Niño."
It comes in the summer but will peak later
In the summer of 2026, notes Mr. Tymvios, El Niño is expected to appear to strengthen towards the fall, while it will also affect the winter of 2026 – 2027. "When exactly it will fade is more uncertain, but usually such episodes last for several months and subside in the next spring or early summer. So we are talking about a phenomenon of months, not days or weeks."
In Cyprus, Mr. Tymvios notes, the effect of El Niño is expected to be indirect and passes through the large atmospheric circulation. "If there is an effect, it is more likely to be seen from autumn and especially winter, i.e. during our own rainy season. What we are particularly interested in is the big picture: That a strong El Niño can raise the global temperature background even further, in an area like the Eastern Mediterranean that is already warming rapidly. So we do not treat it as an immediate forecast for Cyprus, but as an important factor that we must monitor along with all the other data."
What worries meteorologists the most, Mr. Tymvios points out, is not only El Niño itself. "It is the combination of this phenomenon with the general warm background that already exists on the planet and especially in the Eastern Mediterranean region, where in recent years we have had particularly high sea temperatures."
However, Mr. Tymvios emphasizes that there are measures that can be taken to protect citizens from extreme conditions.
"We need to see protection from extreme events as a chain. It starts with scientific monitoring and early warning, continues with the operational readiness of the state and ends with the behaviour of the citizen."
For Cyprus, he says, the main axes of adjustment are:
> Taking care of protection from heat waves.
> To reduce the risk of fires.
> The best anti-flood preparation.
> Responsible water management.
"We cannot zero the risk, but we can greatly reduce the effects if we prepare before the phenomenon and not at the time it happens," he concludes.
