Beijing is preparing to welcome the spring with increased security measures, curfews and intense diplomatic mobility, as Donald Trump's upcoming visit in mid-May – his first to China in almost a decade – is expected to be a turning point in US-Chinese relations. However, from Beijing's perspective, the US president will arrive there in a much weaker position than his last meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea, just six months ago.
This change is not conjunctural. For the second time since his return to the White House, Trump is attempting to harness the geoeconomic power of the US against a major strategic adversary, but he appears to have underestimated both the resilience and adaptability of the Chinese economy, causing wider global economic turbulence.
Washington, initially, tried to pressure China through high-intensity tariffs, seeking to hit its production model and reshape global value chains. Beijing responded with targeted restrictions on rare earth exports, putting intense pressure on Western industries and leading to a trade war that ended in a temporary truce, under the pressure of a global supply crisis of critical materials, from electronics to defense systems.
Trump is now facing an even more unstable geopolitical equation. The Iran-Israel conflict and US military operations in the Middle East have led to a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy channel. This development has caused one of the deepest disruptions in energy markets in history, turning a military crisis into a global economic war of attrition.
Spillover effects favor states that the US has been trying to contain, while China has systematically strengthened. The spike in oil prices has led Washington to temporarily ease sanctions on Russia and Iran, weakening a key pillar of the US geoeconomic strategy in order to ensure supply adequacy.
Strategy
For Xi Jinping, the timing serves as a confirmation of a long-term strategy based on energy self-sufficiency, industrial independence and state planning in conditions of crisis. China, which operates with an almost "war economy" logic in strategic sectors, appears better prepared to absorb the shocks.
The country has invested huge funds in renewable energy while maintaining a strong presence in coal, which limits dependence on external suppliers. China has the world's largest installed solar power capacity, while about 50% of new vehicles sold there are electric, reducing consumers' sensitivity to international energy fluctuations.
At the same time, its energy structure is polycentric: dependence on just one oil supplier has been reduced, with Russia and Saudi Arabia accounting for most of Chinese imports. Overall, the country's energy self-sufficiency is close to 80%, an extremely high level for a net energy importer.
In contrast, in the United States, political pressure is mounting as the government seeks to curb fuel prices ahead of the elections. The economic staff estimates that the price of gasoline could fall in the summer, but the market remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
Washington's strategy, meanwhile, includes efforts to control critical energy flows from countries such as Iran and Venezuela, aimed at weakening Chinese influence in the long term. The effectiveness of this policy, however, remains questionable, as energy markets have become more fragmented and politicized.
China, at the same time, appears to be operating with relative stability, while other economies are facing energy shortages, power outages and consumption-restricting measures. The difference in resilience is attributed to Beijing's precautionary strategy, which began as early as the late 2010s.
Xi had already warned in 2023 of the need to prepare against "extreme scenarios of global destabilization", after two major shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the first trade war with the US. This strategy was transformed into institutional tools for export control, financial shielding and industrial import substitution.
Particularly important has been the role of rare earths, where China has developed licensing and control mechanisms that allow it to monitor and direct critical feedstock flows. Although these exports represent a small percentage of total trade, they are a highly leveraged geoeconomic tool.
In the new international environment, the Iran-US conflict serves as a parallel example of the use of energy chokepoints as weapons of power, while the challenge to the dominance of the dollar intensifies through alternative payment mechanisms and local currencies.
Opportunity
For China, the current situation is not just a crisis, but also an opportunity. The acceleration of the global green transition is boosting Chinese exports of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, empowering its economic and geopolitical influence.
As Trump prepares for his trip to Beijing, the international environment has changed radically. The visit is not just a diplomatic event, but a sign of a new era where economic wars, energy crises and supply chains have turned into central fields of geopolitical confrontation.
In this context, China does not appear as a passive recipient of pressure, but as a player that has systematically prepared for a world of permanent instability – a world that Trump, as everything shows, will arrive not to impose his terms, but to negotiate in an environment already shaped by others.
Adaptation – Editing: George D. Pavlopoulos
BloombergOpinion
