THE BLOCKADE OF HORMUZ IS A BET THAT TRUMP CANNOT WIN -Filenews 16/4
By Marc Champion
For someone who understands the power of influence, Donald Trump is too slow to acknowledge the influence that Iran has gained in the Strait of Hormuz. The US president's threat to shut it down completely, while also blocking Iranian exports passing through it, is far more likely to drag him deeper into a politically damaging war than to force Tehran into capitulation.
Energy blockades are acts of war. If in doubt, remember Pearl Harbour, which took place about six months after the US imposed an oil embargo on Japan. They also take time to perform. So the already fragile two-week Gulf truce is now in jeopardy, and the only thing that is certain is that the blockade itself is a showdown that the US cannot win.
Stopping Iran and other countries' oil exports through Hormuz — a sea route through which about a fifth of the world's oil supply passes — makes sense. Iran's economy is heavily dependent on trade revenues through this passage, and it has always been strange that the U.S. ended up in a treaty in which only Iranian crude and other goods were allowed to transit. In theory, a blockade could increase pressure on Tehran, without the need for a significant escalation of the war.
But this is only true if one believes that the Islamic Republic will not respond with attacks on more energy facilities in the Gulf and that it will succumb to pressure before Trump. Both scenarios seem so unlikely that it's hard to understand what the White House hopes to gain from this effort.
Trump entered the war amid negotiations that failed to enforce the surrender he wanted to justify his decision, during his first term in the White House, to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deals. U.S. demands for Iran to abandon all uranium enrichment, curb its long-range ballistic missile program, and abandon its allies — from Lebanon's Hezbollah to Yemen's Houthis — that are part of its defense strategy were intended to deprive the Tehran regime of its ability to destabilize the region.
From Iran's point of view, however, these weapons were also its protection. They were the deterrents he needed to keep at bay the retaliation of the US and Israel. Obviously, they failed. However, the current war has given the Islamic Republic a new and stronger means of pressure: the power to disrupt, or possibly even control and economically exploit, the world's most important energy strategic passage.
The chances that Tehran will now abandon all four of its means of deterrence in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, or any other incentive that the US might offer, are almost slim. Trump says he doesn't care at all if the Iranians return to the negotiating table. Vice President Jay Di Vance argues that a rejection of Washington's latest and final offer would hurt Iran more than the U.S.
All of this, frankly, makes no sense and reveals the inability of Trump and his closest advisers to realize that inflicting more damage on the opponent does not automatically equate to victory. I would like to believe that the volatile nature of his statements in the midst of war, which are sometimes contradictory even within the same social media post, is part of a brilliant plan. However, they are nothing more than expressions of his frustration at the fact that US military superiority does not translate into success.
Trump says he won the war, but also that he may have to destroy a civilization if he doesn't back down. He says the country's nuclear program has been "wiped out," but also that Tehran's refusal to abandon it is an obstacle to any deal. He is asking NATO allies to open Hormuz by force, while the US Navy appears reluctant to do so. Now he wants to close the Straits so that Iran can open them. This is a man in denial.
Wars tend to thwart plans and get out of the control of those involved, and this one is no exception. It remains possible that the Iranian regime will collapse under pressure, although there is no such indication yet. And as long as this is the case, the president will have to recognize some hard truths at some point: He has not won yet, he has no clear military strategy to achieve it, and neither he nor the global economy can withstand a closed Hormuz.
Have no doubt, the Iranian regime must not acquire nuclear weapons. The only essential question is how this can be realistically achieved. Its leaders are also in a weaker position than they want to show with their declarations of victory. The situation will become more difficult once the fighting stops and they will have to find the money and popular consensus to stay in power – which they lacked even before the American-Israeli attack of February 28.
For now, the unpleasant reality is that the regime has "the upper hand", as the former head of Britain's MI6, Alex Younger, put it last month. Not because he is stronger than his opponents, but because he knows he can block Hormuz and is more willing to impose the economic pain that will result on his own people than Trump or other countries around the world.
The U.S. government must recognize that it cannot hope for a quick victory under these circumstances, even if it blocks all Iranian trade through Hormuz. It can do so if it wants to escalate a war with no clear prospect of success and at a huge cost to the US and the rest of the world. Or Trump can accept that he should, at least temporarily, abandon his ultimatums and return to negotiations with a more realistic timetable, with the truce in place and Hormuz open.
Iranian negotiators have made it clear that they are ready to return to diplomacy, and commodity and equity markets seem, judging by their still relatively optimistic reaction, to believe that this must happen. Trump will regret it if he continues to test that belief for a long time to come.
