By Natasha Lindstaedt
On Monday, Chinese President Xi Jinping took a position on the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, pointing out that smooth passage through the sea route must be maintained - just as reports of Iran's seizure of ships are intensifying the climate of uncertainty.
This was the first time Beijing had commented on the issue since the U.S. and Israel began their war with Iran and Lebanon in late February. In addition to calling for the Strait to be opened, Xi also stressed the importance of an immediate and complete ceasefire to end hostilities in the Gulf.
Xi aims to exert more influence in the region and restore the status quo. For Beijing, any disruption to global trade or a global economic downturn would hurt its export economy. Net exports contributed to a third of China's GDP in 2025, with uncertainty over developments over the Strait of Hormuz posing a huge challenge for China. But what kind of influence does China have to enforce a return to normalcy, and why has the Middle East become so important to it?
China's Growing Interdependence with the Middle East
Undoubtedly, China's interest in the Middle East has grown significantly in recent years. Following the trade war between China and the US initiated by Trump, Beijing acted quickly to diversify its trade relations, with the Middle East emerging as a key partner. The development of these relations had been underway for several years, as China sought to improve its relations with the Gulf states. Trade activity between China and Middle East and North African (MENA) countries increased to $480.7 billion. in 2024, with crude oil being China's main import from the region.
Even before taking steps to reduce its economic interdependence with the US, China aimed to protect energy production in the Middle East and transport it safely from the region to China. 18% of the oil imported by China comes from Russia and 53% from the Middle East. China is the Middle East's largest oil consumer, and about 45% of the oil that reaches the country passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
China's mediating role
Given that Beijing's interest in the region is growing, it was not surprising that Pakistan turned to China to help broker the first truce between the US and Iran. However, China had not been particularly active in the field of the peace process or direct mediation in the past, preferring to play the role of a neutral mediator and avoid commitments. Nevertheless, its role as a mediator and peacekeeper has strengthened over the years (by 2020, China had sent 2,249 peacekeepers to 25 missions, compared to just 20 in 1989), as China has made efforts to strengthen its global image.
China's model of mediation is very different from that of the West. China's diplomatic and mediation efforts are based on neutrality, pragmatism, and non-intervention, rarely using economic sanctions and choosing to rely on other factors of economic influence. In practice, Beijing's approach lacks transparency and is shaped by its own economic and strategic interests at the expense of others. However, for some countries, this model may be more attractive than the American model of coercive diplomacy and selective promotion of democratic norms, as well as the UN model, which emphasizes multilateralism and international law but moves slowly due to bureaucracy.
For China, engaging in mediation is part of its broader strategy to build the image of a stable and pragmatic power as opposed to the U.S. As China views the U.S. as its biggest competitor in the Middle East, its mediation efforts are driven by a desire to strengthen its diplomatic influence and bargaining power, as well as to marginalize the U.S. and regional security mechanisms under its leadership. Not surprisingly, China has repeatedly refused to participate in any security alliance formed by the U.S. or the U.K.
China has strengthened its prestige as a mediator in the region, using its economic ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran to support the normalization of relations between the two states in 2023, after seven years of "indirect war." As both countries depended on China's energy demands and investments, Beijing emphasized the importance of regional stability for long-term economic cooperation. For China, the dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran has been crucial for its global energy security and transportation projects.
China's influence on Iran
China wishes to maintain relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia. While China's relationship with Riyadh has generally had less friction, was more predictable, and was based on economic interdependence, its relationship with Tehran is not... smooth.
This is partly due to the fact that this relationship is driven by Beijing's desire to strengthen Iran, primarily to act as a counterweight to US influence in the region. For this reason, it sought to develop economic ties with Iran, helping it circumvent Western sanctions. In 2021, the two countries signed a 25-year memorandum of strategic cooperation aimed at strengthening their ties at the economic and technological levels.
Although China has not formally concluded defense agreements with Iran, Beijing recently handed over reconnaissance satellites to Iran to pinpoint the exact locations of US military installations. China may be preparing to send weapons to Iran.
However, Tehran does not maintain close diplomatic relations with Beijing. Although China is Iran's largest trading partner, with 80-90% of its crude oil going to China, the two states have little in common culturally or ideologically.
And it is unclear how much China "counts" for Iran. It may pressure it to offer some concessions, but limited – not significant ones. China had consultations with Iran to prevent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in January 2024, but in the current conflict, it remains to be seen what influence China has. Case in point: Iran prevented Chinese ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, without doing Beijing a favour.
At best, China may be able to secure a partial reopening of shipping routes for ships from states that Tehran considers neutral or friendly. However, even with its significant economic influence over Iran, Beijing does not seem likely to impose the full reopening of the Strait, which Iran sees as its most strategic negotiating weapon. Moreover, any pressure from Beijing is tempered by Tehran's belief that China will not become overly involved or allow itself to fail.
Forbes
