By James Stavridis
The removal of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán this month, after a crushing election defeat, sparked a flurry of comments. Many of them were about the implications for far-right populism in Europe. Others focused on the potential impact on American politics, given the close ties of President Donald Trump's MAGA movement to Orbán's Fidesz party and the personal political capital invested by Vice President J D Vance.
What has received less attention, however, is how Orbán's departure will affect geopolitical and military strategy, both in Europe and in the broader context. How his fall will change the dynamics in NATO, change the calculations about Ukraine's future and shape relations between the US and the European Union.
I met Orbán for the first time shortly after his second election to office, in the spring of 2010, when I travelled to Budapest with the excellent US ambassador, Eleni Kounalaki (now Lieutenant Governor of California). At first glance, Orbán seemed charismatic and intelligent to me. His English was quite good and his positions seemed well thought out. I left with the impression that he was someone I would like to work with. Those were the first impressions.
We discussed at length the NATO mission in Afghanistan, where Hungary had more than 600 troops, most of whom were engaged in the training of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Orbán was generally supportive, but clearly had his doubts about several other NATO missions, from peacekeeping in the neighbouring Balkans to fighting piracy off the coast of Somalia. When war broke out in Libya a year later, Hungary refused to participate, and over the next decade Orbán became a huge thorn in the side of the Alliance.
Worst of all, it has moved closer and closer to Vladimir Putin's Russia, moving forward with controversial energy deals with Moscow and in support of a number of Russian positions that oppose NATO's goals.
Given the Alliance's demand for full unanimity on important issues, he single-handedly managed to block the accession of Sweden and Finland for more than a year. He did everything he could to undermine European support for Ukraine. When rejected by the electorate, he was widely regarded as Putin's top ally in Europe and a "Trojan horse" within the Alliance.
With his defeat, three key geopolitical and military advantages emerged for the West. The first and most obvious is that Hungary will no longer seek to block European engagement and support for Ukraine. While there may still be some problems from Slovakia's leader, Robert Ficoo, the biggest rival of NATO and EU positions has now left.
This means that more immediate military, economic and humanitarian aid can be channelled to Kyiv. This is more necessary than ever, given the almost complete withdrawal of US support under the Trump administration. NATO will also have greater freedom of movement to provide training, information, technology and logistical support to the fighting Ukrainians. Very bad news for Moscow.
A second strategic aspect of Hungary's shift to the West is geographical. Located in the heart of Central Europe, Hungary borders seven countries, including Ukraine. It is a crossroads country that has managed to create strategic and logistical barriers for NATO and the EU. (This role dates back to the Austro-Hungarian Empire of the 19th and 20th centuries, when Hungarians leveraged their geographical location to boost their economy through trade.)
With the possibility of the country moving away from Moscow, not only Ukraine, but also its border with Serbia, becomes of great importance, given Putin's constant efforts to expand Russian influence in the Balkans. In addition, Papa Air Base in western Hungary is home to NATO's multinational Strategic Airlift Capability and fleet of C-17 transport aircraft, on which I relied as the supreme commander of the allied forces.
Finally, with Orbán's departure, the Hungarian army can quickly modernize and join NATO seamlessly. Although it has only about 30,000 troops, Hungary is investing in modern front-line equipment – including new German Leopard 2A7 tanks and powerful Swedish JAS39 Gripen fighters. Although it barely meets NATO's old target of spending 2% of GDP on defense, the new prime minister, Peter Mayar of the center-right Tisza party, has pledged to increase that figure to 5% by 2034.
The end of Viktor Orbán's long political rule in Hungary is excellent news on many fronts, and especially for the NATO alliance.
Adaptation – Editing: Lydia Roubopoulou
BloombergOpinion
