LOGIC DICTATES A DEAL WITH IRAN - WILL TRUMP DO IT? - Filenews 21/4
By Marc Champion
In the world of reason that markets seem to think will prevail in the Middle East, this war will end – and soon – because there are no realistic prospects of either side achieving a decisive victory by resuming the conflict. The cost of such an effort, meanwhile, ranges from punitive to catastrophic.
In this world, there is even a path that, over time, could give a "meaning" for the lives and resources lost since February 28. Both Israel and Lebanon, as well as the US and Iran, are finally in direct talks. This development could be used to bring both relationships to levels of security and stability that we haven't seen in decades.
In fact, the arguments in favour of a sustainable ceasefire and a process for resolving the crisis are so convincing that this still seems the only logical scenario for ending the war, even if the path to this outcome proves difficult and full of missteps.
The problem is that we don't seem to be living in such a reasonable world at the moment. Nor do we have a team of strategic advisers like Henry Kissinger to shape the grand deals required, nor a team of leaders with the personal and political courage required for compromise – like that of Anwar Sadat of Egypt when he made peace with Israel in 1979, or Yitzhak Rabin when he signed the 1993-1995 Oslo Accords with the Palestine Liberation Organization.
On the contrary, we have a divided leadership in Tehran, with weapons and power unfortunately in the wrong hands. The final decision on the terms to be accepted does not belong to the people with whom the US is negotiating – Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi – or even to the supreme leader. It is the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who control the country's missiles and security forces, who have the final say.
In Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed under pressure to accept a temporary ceasefire and start talks with the government in Beirut. The pressure came from US President Donald Trump, who felt that Israel's actions against Hezbollah undermined his efforts to end the war with Iran.
Unfortunately, this effort does not make Trump the logical part of the group. As for Iran, he seems to be living in his own film, reshaping reality to follow a scenario in which he plays the cruel and ultimately triumphant hero, without worrying about events.
This is an inherently unstable situation, as evidenced by the chaos of the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz. As soon as Aragchi declared that Hormuz would remain "fully open" for as long as the ceasefire in Lebanon was in place, everything began to fall apart.
Trump said the U.S. blockade of ships going to and from Iranian ports would continue. A report in the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was also going to extend its blockade to international waters, boarding ships carrying Iranian oil wherever they are in the world.
According to Trump, the negotiations are going well and will resume. An agreement could be reached in a matter of days, and there are only a few minor issues left to be resolved. Meanwhile, "regime change" in Iran has been completed – the hardliners have disappeared and a new group of sensible leaders has taken the reins, who are almost begging to sign its deal. Iran even agreed to hand over its enriched uranium. The US, for its part, continues to take a tough stance, maintaining its blockade and demands, offering nothing – not even money – in return.
None of this is true. It is the script of a fictional sequel to Trump's "Inspector Callahan". There has been no regime change in Iran. As the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in its analysis of the conflict on Saturday, "the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Ahmad Vahidi, and members of his inner circle have probably secured at least temporary control, not only of Iran's military response to this conflict, but also of Iran's negotiating position and approach over the past 48 hours." There are no more hardcore than these men.
Aragchi's social media post about the opening of the Strait of Hormuz provoked a strong reaction from other leaders of the country, as it became clear that the US was not responding with a similar move, an insult they saw as exacerbated by Trump's claims about the country's nuclear program. Thus, the Revolutionary Guards warned against attempting to cross Hormuz without their consent and opened fire on two boats to make their message clear.
Galibaf — who is himself a former commander of the Guards — said Trump had made seven statements on social media about their deal, all of which were untrue. Hormuz would remain closed until the U.S. ended its blockade, he said.
The reality is that there is no nuclear agreement and the distance between the two sides remains. Hardliners are still in control of the Islamic Republic. It is also possible that reaching an agreement will be more difficult now than if former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not been killed on the first day of the war, because there is no longer a single decision-maker in Tehran to whom even the Revolutionary Guards corps must bow. Khamenei's son and successor, Mojtaba, appears to have been so seriously injured in the airstrike against his father that he cannot even shoot a video to show that he is alive.
Meanwhile, the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford returns to the Gulf after completing its repairs, while Trump threatens to resume bombing against Iran after the ten-day truce ends this week. On the other hand, US intelligence reportedly believes that Iran has recovered missiles and launchers that had been buried under the rubble of US and Israeli bombings. As a result, according to the New York Times report, the US now believes that Iran's stockpiles of missiles and launchers have returned to 70% and 60% of pre-war levels, respectively.
The basic scenario for this war remains that, somehow, surely, the two sides will find a way to return to the negotiating table and reach a compromise, because both have so much to lose and so little to gain if the war resumes for good. That would be a safe prediction in a reasonable world. But in our current "real" world – one dominated by the interplay of the victory fantasies of Trump and the Revolutionary Guards – a return to war seems very likely.
Adaptation – Editing: Lydia Roubopoulou
