By David Fickling
A Japanese oil tanker sneaks through the Strait of Hormuz overnight, with the radio switched off, to hide its location. Iran is gaining a market for its crude oil, defying Western sanctions. The balance in global energy trade is shifting from the dominant powers to the emerging ones.
If you think this describes current events in the Middle East, maybe you should dust off the history books. The Nissho Maru incident in 1953 has been largely forgotten, but it heralded the great geopolitical crises of the following decades: the Suez crisis in 1956, the founding of OPEC in 1960 and the Arab oil embargo in 1973.
It also offers a lesson for the current crisis: nothing will stop Asian economies from trying to secure their energy independence, even if it angers Western allies. Meanwhile, the search for cheap energy – oil from developing countries in 1953 and renewable energy in 2026 – will overshadow all other considerations.
In Japan, there has been a resurgence of interest in "Nissho Maru" lately. A novel by far-right writer and former politician Naoki Hiakuta became a bestseller in 2013 and was brought to the big screen in a popular film by the director of "Godzilla Minus One". Indelible memories of the crisis may explain the turmoil caused by reports last week, which the company later denied, that a Mitsui OSK Lines oil tanker had managed to sneak through Hormuz.
The attention paid to this news reflects the current anti-elitist climate of a declining imperial class. In 1953, Japan had just emerged from the American occupation that followed World War II. Iran had just nationalized an oil industry previously run by the Anglo-Iranian Oil Co., or AIOC, BP's predecessor. This prompted an embargo by the Royal Navy.
In Japan, the owner of Nissho Maru, Idemitsu Kosan Co., was a young trader in contrast to the oligopoly of foreign oil giants and domestic zaibatsu groups that controlled the country's energy supplies. Pressured by American crude oil producers who sought to exclude him from his role as an intermediary as an importer, founder Sazo Indemitsu turned to Iran, which offered to sell him barrels at a 30% discount if he was willing to violate the British embargo.
The events unfolded like a spy thriller of the Cold War era. Iran enthusiastically welcomed the "Nissho Maru". The "Nissho Maru" then used tricks and daring manoeuvres to evade the British ships on the long journey to the East, before reaching Kawasaki and finally facing the AIOC in court over its right to cargo. Three months later, British and American intelligence conspired to overthrow Iran's Prime Minister, Mohamed Mossadeh, through a coup.
In the oil market, however, the rules of the game had changed forever. In 1950, almost all of the world's oil production was controlled either by the major Western oil companies or by the Soviet Union. By 1973, a wave of nationalization of resources had shrunk their share to just 40%.
Sazo Indemitsu's determination to overturn the established order was a foretaste of what was to come. Japan's powerful economic body, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), initially did not approve of its unconventional behaviour but eventually complied in the face of broad popular support.
Under MITI's guidance, cheap imported fuels and close ties to the Middle East's now newly established state-owned oil industries later became the cornerstones of Japan's industrialization. To date, Tokyo enjoys unusually warm relations with Tehran.
This episode should worry Western capitals. Asian countries import about 85% of the oil and gas that normally passes through Hormuz. Since 1945, their energy policies have been based on two pillars: The reliability of supplies from the Persian Gulf and the resilience of the American "security umbrella" that ensures tankers reach the ports of landing.
Both of these pillars are currently collapsing, and rapid re-evaluations are needed. In the short term, this will provide Tehran with more friends than it would otherwise have. With oil and gas running out in a matter of weeks, the $2 million per ship fee that Iran charges to guarantee safe passage to countries it considers non-hostile seems quite competitive, compared to the cost of $5 million or more for the uncertain promise of ship insurance. Both Thailand and Malaysia have said in recent days that they have negotiated guarantees with Tehran for the safe passage of their ships.
In the long run, oil shortages will force many countries to turn to new energy sources. China's exports of electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines offer Asia a way to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas, just as the nationalization of resources in the 1950s allowed Japan to break the stranglehold of Anglo-American oil companies. Clean energy is already cheaper than fossil fuels almost everywhere in the region. The current crisis proves that it is also safer.
By deceiving the financial and military might of the British Empire in 1953, the Nissho Maru exposed a force that was in rapid decline. The American president, Donald Trump, who took office last year promising a new era of American energy sovereignty based on fossil fuels, is now proving in the clearest way that history repeats itself.
Adaptation – Editing: Lydia Roubopoulou
