THE NIGHTMARE OF ELECTRICITY SHORTAGE CONTINUES - Filenews 1/3 by Christakis Hatzilaou
In the summer of 2025, Cyprus found itself in a state of emergency, due to a shortage of electricity, in the heart of the tourist season, which shattered the country's image on a global level.
Despite promises to solve the problem through the installation of central storage by the Cyprus Transmission System Operator (TSOC) and the strengthening of conventional production before the summer of 2026, reality has once again disappointed expectations. The nightmare of electricity shortage may be repeated in the summer of 2026, as no substantial actions have been taken, compared to last year's electricity sufficiency.
There is a scene of uncertainty
Uncertainty and inertia, combined with increased electricity prices, are causing intense public discontent and concern. Many report that the State is unable to address the basic needs of society and the economy, despite the increasing pressures and problems in the electricity sector.
The public admission of the authorities that the central storage of the TSOC will not be ready for the summer of 2026, reinforces the sense of inertia and uncertainty. This makes it imperative for a clear public debate and the need to clarify some basic definitions, concepts and responsibilities regarding the adequacy and operation of the electricity system.
Secure supply of electricity
In order to ensure the secure supply of electricity to the Cypriot consumer, two basic conditions must be met:
1. Sufficiency in Electricity: The available installed power generation must reliably meet the electricity demand from consumers.
2. Safety in the Operation of the Electrical System: Ensuring that the system will be able to operate safely and reliably under any conditions of demand for electricity.
Under the applicable legislation, the Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (CERA) is responsible for ensuring satisfactory long-term adequacy, while the TSOC is responsible for the safe operation of Cyprus' electricity system.
Long-term and functional adequacy
Long-term adequacy requires ensuring a satisfactory margin of reserve installed capacity, which according to CERA Decision 144/2017 should be between 20-40%. The reserve margin is defined as the percentage of the difference between the available installed capacity generation and the maximum annual demand for electricity versus the maximum annual demand. Thereafter, the available installed capacity, provided that a satisfactory margin is ensured by CERA, is made available to the TSOC, which is responsible for the safe and functional coverage of electricity demand at all times (ensuring operational adequacy).
Operating Margin Policy
Operational adequacy is ensured through the TSOC's margin policy, which requires at least 40 MW of rotating reserve and 130 MW of replacement reserve (conventional fast-starting generating units).
This value of 170 MW constitutes the minimum operating margin allowed to ensure marginal operational efficiency. If the minimum margin is not ensured, then a shortage of electricity arises, which may lead to electricity cuts in order to restore marginal operational adequacy.
Deficiency for summer 2026?
Based on the definitions and concepts, as explained above, we will attempt to determine whether summer 2026 ensures satisfactory, both long-term and operational adequacy.
– Long-term adequacy
For the summer 2026 season, according to the published draft for the Ten-Year Transmission Development Plan 2026-2035 of the TSOC, a maximum demand of 1200 MW has been predicted for the transmission system, which should be reliably covered by the available conventional production.
It is noted in this regard that a deficiency problem for the summer season 2026 may occur in the evening when there will be no possibility of contribution from photovoltaic production. Taking into account that the total available installed capacity of the conventional units for the summer season 2026 is estimated to be in the order of 1415 MW (resulting from the total installed capacity of 1478 MW, taking into account the restrictions on the units due to high temperatures), it is concluded that the margin of reserve installed capacity amounts to 18%.
In our technocratic view, the margin of reserve for the small and isolated electricity system of Cyprus with the aging conventional units of the EAC should be close to 40%. Therefore, with regard to long-term adequacy – for which CERA is responsible – and if a satisfactory rate of between 20-40% is not ensured in accordance with CERA Decision 144/2017, it is predicted that during the summer period 2026 there will be a shortage of electricity. In this regard, it is emphasized that the available installed capacity of 1415 MW has not taken into account the "available" conventional units in the area of Vasilikos (420 MW) that can only operate with natural gas.
– Functional adequacy
For the assessment of operational adequacy for the summer 2026 season, the TSOC, apparently taking into account the relevant maximum provision for the transmission system (1200 MW), the total available installed electricity generation capacity (1415 MW) and a failure rate of 15% (212 MW), will probably arrive at an operating margin of 3 MW, which does not meet the minimum permitted operating margin of 170 MW of the TSOC operating margin policy.
In this regard, it is noted that EAC's conventional production units are considered to be relatively old, subject to systematic and frequent stress, as a result of the uncontrollably increasing penetration of RES. For this reason, the estimated failure rate of conventional production units, used to calculate the operating margin during the summer 2026 season, is in the order of 15%.
Therefore, with regard to operational adequacy – for which the TSOC is responsible – and as long as the minimum operating margin of 170 MW provided for in the TSOC operating margin policy is not ensured, it is foreseen that an electricity shortage will occur during the summer 2026 season.
What is provided for in the event of a deficiency?
In this regard, it is noted that, according to Article 34 of the Regulation of the Electricity Market Law 2021, in the event that the assessment of electricity adequacy demonstrates that the existing installed electricity production capacity is not sufficient to ensure a satisfactory supply of electricity in the Republic and this makes it necessary to take measures related to power mechanisms, CERA must inform the Minister of Energy accordingly, so that the procedure for increasing the installed capacity in electricity production can be activated in a timely manner.
Conclusion
Based on the above analysis of long-term and operational adequacy, and if extreme weather conditions prevail and the TSOC forecasts for peak demand and breakdown rate are verified, it is foreseen, if the envisaged procedure for increasing installed capacity in electricity production is not activated in a timely manner in accordance with the legislation, that during the summer season 2026 there will be a shortage of electricity in a similar way as had happened in summer 2025.
Postscript: The analysis of data on a possible electricity shortage in the summer of 2026 sends a clear and at the same time worrying message to all recipients. The state, for the second year in a row, is probably unable to ensure uninterrupted and reliable electricity supply to citizens.
When the state cannot ensure the obvious, comments and words lose their meaning.
* Electrical engineer, with many years of experience in the operation of the Electrical System
