IRAN CAN TURN THE PERSIAN GULF INTO A MINEFIELD - Filenews 6/3
With war raging across the Middle East, shipping eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea route, which connects the boundaries of the Persian Gulf with the open waters of the Indian Ocean, is virtually closed.
Under normal circumstances, about 20% to 25% of the world's oil and gas flows south from the Gulf to the world's markets. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas points out, some of the crude oil could be traded through onshore pipelines, but the turmoil remains significant and will worsen over time.
Iran has effectively closed the strait through a combination of threats that include short-range ballistic missiles lined up along the coast, missile-armed warships and small boats with machine guns and rockets that can attack large, slow-moving tankers. These three threats alone are enough to scare the insurance industry, which has effectively stopped insuring transport. President Donald Trump, in a social media post, pledged to provide civil risk insurance "at a very reasonable price" to ships passing through the strait, but did not give further details. At the moment, the masters of many merchant ships are just anchoring and waiting for instructions from the nervous headquarters of shipping companies.
How long can Iran keep the Strait of Hormuz closed? What can the US and its allies do about it?
I have crossed the strait as a Navy officer dozens of times, since the late 1970s. It is a very difficult passage in terms of navigation. I have made the crossing under dangerous conditions similar to today's, in the mid-1980s, escorting tankers during the Iran-Iraq war, as part of Operation Earnest Will. We often had Iranian missile targeting radars "locking" our ship and their fighters flying over our heads.
As a tactical action officer, with the authority to use weapons, I was a nervous young sailor. I also led convoys of merchant ships whose flag we had changed to American, a strategy that is probably still being considered today.
The U.S. military is working hard to degrade Iran's naval capabilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base in Bandar Abbas has been attacked and, according to the Pentagon, nearly 20 Iranian vessels have sunk, one from a US submarine in the Indian Ocean. However, this may not be as devastating as it sounds: Iran started the war with a dozen frigates and corvettes, a few dozen attack and patrol speedboats, and hundreds, if not thousands, of small speedboats that can harass civilian shipping. And many of these ballistic missiles along the shores of the straits are still active.
Until the Pentagon manages to largely neutralize the threat, it is unlikely that merchant ships will want to risk the passage, whether they are insured or not. And even if Iran's naval forces are severely degraded, there is also a different, insidious and deadly threat: mines.
Iran used mines four decades ago against Saddam Hussein's Iraq. He has been planning an operation to close the Strait of Hormuz for decades and probably has more than 5.000 mines. A single impact can cause serious damage to a thin-hulled tanker. The Iranians can place them secretly with small boats, diesel-powered submarines and even civilian vessels, such as the ubiquitous sailing "dhows" of the Gulf. If the US does not destroy the mines in the port now, and the Iranians place a large number of them in the strait, the minesweeper will be the most valuable ship in the Gulf.
The US has about three to six minesweepers in the Gulf, while our allies and partners – including Saudi Arabia and Great Britain – could contribute about the same number. We could also use MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopters. The Navy's 59th Strike Force in Bahrain, which focuses on robotics and unmanned vehicles, has also experimented with minesweeper technology.
A flotilla of minesweepers is vulnerable and could only be used after the Iranian maritime threat is completely neutralized. And believe me, even under the best conditions, minesweeping is a very slow process. I have seen American vessels, the best in the field, take weeks to clear a minefield with a few hundred mines. The technology for detecting mines (sonar and magnetic sensors) is cumbersome and can be unreliable, depending on the state of the sea. Floating mines become especially dangerous for the minesweepers themselves.
The boats would have tried to clear an initial canal, but assuming that the Iranians mainly used floating mines (which are not fixed to the seabed), the ships would have to clear the canal almost constantly. A complete cleaning of the strait could take a few months.
The Navy needs greater minesweeping capability around the world. However, for now, the situation in the Gulf is critical and requires additional minesweepers, aircraft and Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) equipped for mine clearance. Both minesweepers and aircraft can be loaded onto larger ships, and some of them are probably already moving towards the Gulf. LCS are fast warships, and some of them are already in the area or heading towards it. And they need to arrive as quickly as they can – the world's energy reserves need it.
*Stavridis is dean emeritus of Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He serves on the boards of directors of Aon, Fortinet and Ankura Consulting Group
