BAB EL MANDEB STRAIT - THE CRITICAL SHIPPING ROUTE UNDER THREAT - ''OIL COULD SKYROCKET TO $150" - Filenews 27/3
After Hormuz, Iran threatens to close a second strait in the Middle East, vital for global energy markets.
We are talking about the Bab el Mandeb Strait that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. While global markets are suffering strong tremors due to the war in the Middle East, its closure would exacerbate global economic problems and could push oil prices to $150 a barrel, experts warn, according to Politico.
An Iranian military official said on Saturday that if the U.S. and Israel attack more of the country's energy infrastructure, Iran would escalate "insecurity in other straits, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea."
The strait, hundreds of miles from the Strait of Hormuz, at the southwestern tip of Yemen, is a passage for ships carrying about 10 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies.
Bab el-Madeb has been targeted by the Houthis in the past.
"I have no doubt that eventually the Houthis will come in and do two things — first, they will block the Bab el-Madeb Strait, and second, they will try to prevent the Saudis from transporting oil in tankers to the port of Yanbu," said Dani Kitrinovic, a former top investigator on Iran in the Israeli Armed Forces.
Over the past month, the Strait has become an alternative avenue for promoting Middle Eastern oil to the market, as Iran's threats have effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. And while the Houthis agreed to a ceasefire last year, their leader warned this month that "our hands are on the trigger when it comes to military escalation."
"If the war escalates, we should expect them to engage and continue their naval campaign," said Noam Rydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Near East Policy Institute and an expert on energy and maritime hazards in the Middle East.
The Houthis slowed down global shipping through the Bab el-Madeb from 2023 to 2025. Despite the ceasefire, they never stopped threatening the region and could seek to replicate Iran's success in Hormuz, Raidan added.
"I won't say, 'Start a naval campaign,' because the Houthis never stopped. They stopped it last year, but that threat remains," Raidan said.
It should be noted that the world's two largest shipping companies, Switzerland-based MSC and Denmark's Maersk, are already quite concerned about attacks on Bab el Mandeb that they are now avoiding the area.
Nate Swanson, who was director for Iran at the White House National Security Council from 2022 to 2025, said he was surprised that Iran has not sought to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
"It could be patience for strategic reasons, it could be reduced capabilities, or it could be some kind of side deal with the Saudis," said Swansson, who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
If the negotiations stall or fail, the closure of the Bab el-Madeb Strait will be one of Iran's most powerful political levers, which could drag the Houthis into the war, Kirinovic said.
"If things escalate and Trump attacks energy facilities, the Iranians will be in a very difficult position," he stressed, adding that the closure of the Bab el-Madeb Strait could represent the next level of economic pain from the conflict in the Middle East. The Iranian regime is not as desperate for a deal as Trump seems to believe, he noted.
The strait is located between Yemen to the east and Djibouti and Eritrea to the west, and is only 20 miles wide at its widest point. It is a crucial shipping route for many global products, including electronics, clothing, furniture, household goods, and food such as wheat, corn, and coffee. It connects markets in Africa, Europe, and Asia, including the Middle East.
The Houthis have avoided joining the fight, but that could change if the US and Israel escalate, said Gregory Bruce, an analyst on Iran at the Eurasia Group, estimating that crude oil prices could jump quickly from current levels of $90 to $100 a barrel to $150 per barrel.
Capital.gr
