in-cyprus 8 February 2026 - by Frixos Dalitis
The result of the parliamentary elections due in May is likely to push the country towards a political crisis and state instability. All signals from polls so far point to a parliament without a stable majority: dysfunctional, and in many cases forced into a de facto governing role, creating political chaos.
Government bills would land before a legislature lacking real balance. Dialogue and cooperation through consultation would prove difficult, while attempts at final compromise on major issues, as has happened until now, would end in confusion. Such a situation could even lead to the forced dissolution of parliament and fresh parliamentary elections, as the state would struggle to function. In a more extreme scenario, the country could be dragged into early presidential elections if political fluidity turns into outright instability, as reflected at the ballot box.
The country’s presidential system does offer greater governmental stability than parliamentary systems, which in several European states have slid more easily into periods of instability. A recent example is Greece in the previous decade, during the SYRIZA period, with a fragmented parliament and an enhanced role for Golden Dawn and other forces that later faded, such as To Potami. Italy has also gone through phases of instability, while France is currently experiencing an unstable climate.
In Cyprus, however, a small state dealing with existential issues such as the Cyprus problem and only recently emerging from an economic crisis, a scenario of political chaos would have a far greater impact, politically and economically.
Over the past 10 days, two opinion polls have been made public. According to information, at least two internal party polls were also carried out in roughly the same period: one by Pindarou (DISY headquarters) and one by Ezekia Papaioannou (AKEL headquarters). All four confirm the fragmented political landscape expected to emerge from the parliamentary elections and reinforce scenarios that increasingly point to an unstable and unpredictable post-election environment after 24 May.
The latest RIK poll showed DISY in first place on 17%, with AKEL close behind on 16%. ELAM appears to be consolidating third place with 11%, while Odysseas Michaelides’ Alma recorded 9%, Direct Democracy 6.5% and DIKO 6%. The poll was conducted by Cypronetwork.
The previous week, Pulse presented a poll to Pindarou, carried out for the party. According to information, it recorded DISY on 15%, AKEL on 13.5%, ELAM on 11.5%, Alma on 10%, Direct Democracy on 6% and DIKO on 5%.
In last week’s Alpha poll, conducted by RAI, voting intention with redistribution showed DISY on 22.9%, AKEL on 21.8%, ELAM on 16.5%, Alma on 10.5%, Direct Democracy on 10.1%, DIKO on 7.9% and Volt on 4%.
These findings point to a parliament without a stable majority anchored in a coherent ideological framework or clear political direction. From today’s parliamentary parties, only four are likely to secure entry to the new parliament: DISY, AKEL, ELAM and DIKO. Of these, ELAM is the only party recording rising support.
ELAM is set to become the key power broker and a central player in the new parliament, strengthened in every poll. As the third-largest party, it would effectively assume the role historically held by DIKO, with the difference that ELAM expresses an extreme ideology on several issues, sometimes with populist traits typical of parties in that space. DISY and DIKO often accuse ELAM, particularly on economic issues, of voting in line with AKEL. It is also a party with which the others cannot, or do not want to, cooperate.
DISY and DIKO together will not command a majority in the new parliament, as DIKO and EDEK are unlikely to enter. DISY, which polls suggest will remain the largest party, is recording significant losses compared with the previous parliamentary elections. Based on estimates of actual ballot data, its share is expected to be five to eight points lower than in 2021, when it won just under 28%. That would mean losing between two and four of its current 17 MPs.
DIKO, amid strong rumours of cooperation with DISY over the speakership and possibly through to the next presidential elections, is polling in single digits. In 2021, it won 11.29%. In two of the last three polls, its support even fell below the threshold for the third allocation of seats. In the worst-case scenario for the party, that would mean losing more than half of its current MPs.
In 2021, DIKO elected nine MPs and recently added Andreas Apostolou of EDEK and Michalis Giakoumis of DIPA, bringing its parliamentary group to eleven. Both come from other governing parties and, in most cases, voted alongside DIKO.
Under current conditions, DISY and DIKO together are likely to muster around 20 MPs and therefore fall short of a majority.
AKEL largely cooperated in parliament with the Greens and, at times, on socio-economic issues, with EDEK. It could also work with other centre parties to shape a broader political consensus. In the new parliament, it may lose that stable support. At the same time, despite years in opposition and high-pitched rhetoric on many issues, the left-wing party continues to lose ground. Every poll shows it below its 2021 result of 22.34%. Holding its share is now the primary goal at Ezekia Papaioannou. Although it remains the main opposition force, its role as the central pillar of the alternative political pole is weakening.
Although May’s contest is a parliamentary election and the ballot will measure parties, the impact will be immediate for President Nikos Christodoulides’ government. In a recent interview with Phileleftheros, he pre-emptively set out the ideological and political direction of his governance and the parliamentary composition he wants: a centre-right majority. He clearly understands that without it, his government cannot implement its programme.
Asked about relations with ELAM, he said there is no alignment, citing major issues where ELAM voted against government bills. That does not, however, dispel the prevailing perception that ELAM acts as a de facto governing partner. Christodoulides appears to recognise that this is not in the government’s interest, as it cannot rely on ELAM in parliament. That is why he spoke of a centre-right majority of DISY, DIKO and DIPA, occasionally joined by EDEK.
Within the presidential circle and among the president’s aides, however, there is a belief that ELAM functions as a reservoir of votes for Christodoulides and that its rise is seen as a rejection of DISY’s opposition strategy. This dynamic harms both DISY and the government. At the same time, defections to ELAM or cooperation with it by figures who backed Christodoulides reinforce that perception. Responsibility lies with both the Presidential Palace and Pindarou, as both seem to be operating more in a contest of personalities than of policies ahead of the 2028 presidential elections.
Disillusionment also affects the government. It will not be measured directly at the ballot box nor drawn conclusively from governing parties’ results, but negative views of government performance recorded in several polls are indicative. The shock suffered by the government and its delayed reaction to the controversial video feed into wider public disappointment.
More broadly, all parties, in government and opposition, are campaigning without a clear ideological compass. Amid a toxic public atmosphere, they head to the polls with internal disputes unresolved and fail to project policies as the main lines of confrontation. Instead, they scramble to react to daily controversies, from the video involving the former head of the president’s office and Giorgos Lakkotrypis, to claims made online by “Annie Alexiou”, to water shortages, or earlier wildfires in mountainous Limassol.
Internal party problems are another key factor. In DISY, Nikos Sykas, Fedon Fedonos and Pieris Gypsiotes have opened new fronts, with introspection running deep, whether through reopening old wounds or leadership missteps.
In AKEL, the case of Irene Charalambidou remains a headache despite efforts to keep it low-key, as does that of Costas Costa in Limassol. The two most popular MPs in their districts will not stand again. Charalambidou will seek re-election from a different position, while Costa has voiced his dissatisfaction. There are also apparent leaks of support towards Feidias Panayiotou’s Direct Democracy.
In DIKO, the ticket is not yet finalised and internal grumbling is edging towards discontent with the leadership. A rift is now clear between the line expressed by Nicolas Papadopoulos and Chrysis Pantelides, which points towards cooperation with DISY, and the party’s pro-government wing. A third group argues that, regardless of ties with the government, the party’s contradictory signals are damaging.
In ELAM, major problems have not yet surfaced publicly, but two camps are evident: the old guard and newer arrivals, mainly former DISY members.
For the remaining parties, the immediate goal is simply to enter parliament.
Alma appears to be holding its ground, while the climate of scandal benefits its narrative. At the same time, it faces internal issues. Recently, another figure who appeared at Alma’s launch last May, Limassol lawyer Theodoulos Papavasileiou, left. He followed Hasapopoulos, Avraam Themistokleous and Andreas Serafim. The way figures close to Odysseas Michaelides behave and comment on social media also generates antipathy.
Feidias Panayiotou, on the other hand, seems to retain a loyal following. However, reports concerning alleged misuse of European Parliament funds and missteps, such as referring to people with intellectual disabilities as “crazy”, are starting to weigh on both him and his party.
Polls suggest that Odysseas Michaelides’ Alma and Feidias Panayiotou’s Direct Democracy will be key players in the new parliament, even chasing double-digit results. Panayiotou’s party lacks a clear ideological direction, defined policies or proposals, something the MEP himself has acknowledged on television, arguing that even those with proposals fail to solve problems. Beyond his personal popularity, the project rests on the idea of direct participation in decision-making through a promoted app. In practical parliamentary terms, that would place a group without shared positions inside the legislature, making cooperation on budgets, government bills or private members’ motions difficult.
Alma presents its ideological base as radical centrism, but it builds primarily on the issue of corruption. It has published proposals on some economic issues and its leadership seeks to present it as a party with positions across the board. It remains, however, a personality-driven party, with a declared aim of Odysseas Michaelides seeking the presidency. Its ideological positioning sits largely in the centre-left. As a result, it will operate in opposition, without clear convergence with AKEL on many issues, a fact that does not point to stable political cooperation inside or outside parliament.
