Filenews 28 December 2025 - by Xenia Turki
We live in difficult times. Economically, politically, socially. Insecurity and uncertainty prevail everywhere in the world. The optimism that once existed, that better days are dawning, has disappeared and more and more people are anxious about the future.
Tariff wars are the new reality. Global economic growth is declining at a very slow pace. War conflicts are raging in over 50 countries. Economic inequalities are increasing dramatically and so at the same time that a small group sees its incomes skyrocket, the rest are anxious about how the month will turn out. Technology is causing tectonic changes, transforming the way we live, work, and socialize.
We are entering 2026 with only one certainty: that nothing is certain anymore. In this environment, trust in institutions is being tested. Democracy is under pressure, public debate is polarized and disinformation is spreading at an unprecedented speed. Societies find it difficult to find common ground, as fear and insecurity often prevail over logic and cooperation. The decisions made today often seem short-term, unable to respond to the deeper and more complex challenges of the time.
And yet, in this dark circumstance, a strong need for change is also emerging. The search for meaning, solidarity and new forms of cooperation is becoming more urgent than ever. Perhaps uncertainty is ultimately an invitation: to redefine priorities, to invest in people and to rebuild hope, not as an easy promise, but as a conscious choice of responsibility and collective action.
Four experts, Anna Prokopiou Koukkidis, Dimitrios Iliadis, Athanasios Bozinis and Michalis Florentiadis talk to "Fileleftheros" about the year that is leaving us and describe the challenges that await us for the next one in key areas such as international relations, the environment, technology and the economy.
Through their interventions, a synthesis but realistic picture for 2025 is captured. They do not limit themselves to identifying the problems, but attempt to shed light on their root causes, highlighting the critical dilemmas that we will be called upon to face in 2026. Their views converge on the fact that the choices that will be made will determine not only the course of development, but also the quality of democracy, social cohesion and international stability.
In a world where developments are rapid and often unpredictable, knowledge and critical thinking are essential assets. The challenges ahead are not necessarily condemning; They can be turned into opportunities, as long as there is strategy, cooperation and political will for substantial changes.
Cypriot economy: High expectations – favourable conditions
2025 was a very good year for the Cypriot economy, as the growth rate is expected to be above 3%, inflation, aided by energy and food prices, is below 1% and unemployment is at a historically low level below 4.5%. In other words, a fairly favourable economic environment was observed with a high growth rate and relatively low inflation.
But what were the factors that led to this impressive performance? The developments in tourism were particularly positive, since 2025 was a record year. Arrivals increased at a rate of more than 10%. While tourism is a traditional sector, Cyprus also seems to have benefited from the investment and activity of mainly foreign technology and IT companies. These companies are employed in sectors where there is rapid growth and increase in turnover. However, it seems that the economy is mainly based on foreign companies coming to Cyprus rather than on the creation of Cypriot companies since it seems that the corresponding incentives for domestic entrepreneurship in these critical sectors of the future (technology and information technology) are missing.
Another positive development was the fiscal surplus which is expected to exceed 3% of GDP last year. Thus, Cyprus is expected to manage to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio below the significant level of 60%, which is considered as a kind of critical threshold for the European Union. The hope is to continue to reduce debt as a percentage of GDP, so that there is flexibility in case of slower growth rates in the future.
Finally, the international environment was also favourable for the Cypriot economy, since despite the threats of a "trade war" between the US and the rest of the world, in the end there were agreements that on the one hand increased restrictions and taxes on imports, but on the other hand things were better than the worst-case scenario.
* Michalis Florentiadis, CFA
Chief Economist, Head of Market Analysis
Environment 2025: The new climate reality
In 2025, the effects of the climate crisis were consolidated as the "new normal". According to the European Copernicus Service, the year is expected to end as the 2nd or 3rd warmest globally, while the three-year average 2023-2025 is expected to exceed +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This suggests that we are moving off track with the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit the temperature increase to below 2°C, and preferably to 1.5°C, relative to pre-industrial levels.
The need for adaptation became particularly visible in Europe, where 2025 was marked by intense climate variability. Prolonged periods of drought and drought affected southeastern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean, while heat stress waves occurred in southern and western Europe. At the same time, forest fires intensified and their period lengthened, while parts of northern and western Europe recorded episodes of increased rainfall and flooding.
The increasing frequency of droughts and floods, combined with the fact that 30% of European citizens live in areas facing seasonal or permanent water pressure, have prompted the EU to place water at the heart of climate policy. In June, the EU adopted the European Water Resilience Strategy, setting 2030 targets for efficiency, loss reduction and smart water management, as well as security and preparedness issues in crisis management.
In the Mediterranean and especially in Cyprus, the water crisis took an even more acute form. In 2025, Cyprus experienced the third consecutive year of drought with dam stocks below 10%, strategically turning to desalination for water supply needs. This development highlighted water scarcity as a systemic security risk for Cyprus and not as a temporary phenomenon, as the government presented an investment plan with a total cost of €1.2 billion for the country's water security. The great challenge was and remains the availability of sufficient quantities of good quality water for agriculture, as it is inextricably linked to the economy and social well-being.
The real question that 2025 leaves is not whether the effects will intensify, but whether governments, institutions, societies and the economy will be able to adapt to the new normal in a timely manner, in a way that maintains cohesion, prosperity and security.
*Dr. Dimitrios Iliadis
Research Assistant Professor – KIOS Centre of Excellence for Research and Innovation, University of Cyprus.
Artificial Intelligence is a field of competition at a global level
Artificial Intelligence is one of the key strategic technologies of the Future, along with Cyberspace, robotics, neurotechnology, Nanotechnology and quantum mechanics. Artificial Intelligence, as a basic science of computer science, is today perhaps the biggest point of technological competition at a global level and especially between the USA, Russia and China, in terms of its use in strategic applications as a factor of power and development, in military operations, in economic development, in crisis management, in the decision-making process, in Cyber protection, health, digital governance, education and democracy.
The strong ability of AI to analyze and manage big data gives it the strong privilege of being a field of global competition today for which state will be able to develop effective models for predicting and managing crises and threats. Although fears of a potential threat to humanity due to the expansion of AI through a supercomputational singularity have not yet been confirmed, the use of AI for Cyber Warfare, Cyber Propaganda, Hybrid Warfare especially with the widespread dissemination of fake news, images and videos is a key threat to global security.
The global governance effort of AI is currently a rather difficult enigma for the international community. The dynamic use of algorithms by multiple actors of the international system and the globalization of information through cyberspace makes the ethical application of AI significantly more difficult, and the possibility of AI weaponization is increasing.
The interdependence of AI with robotics, neurotechnology, quantum mechanics and other future technologies will create new trends in the strategic use of these new technologies by states in the international system. The two regional wars highlighted the shift of states to wars and defenses, now relying on high strategic technology, while the near future shows that the global community will turn its attention to the convergence of new strategic technologies.
*Athanasios I. Bozinis
Assistant Professor of "Global Political Economy and New Technologies – Biosecurity", Department of International and European Studies, University of Macedonia.
Safety, security, security!
If one key word sums up humanity's concerns for 2025, it can only be the word security and in particular the feedback of external and internal threats that make the distinction between internal and external security more imperceptible. In an increasingly fragile world, the big question is who will be the willing security provider for everyone else.
>First, the American president, Donald Trump, despite being possessed by the greatness of a planetary leader, moves unilaterally, even with contempt one could say towards his European allies. The ambiguity of his intentions leaves NATO and the EU in limbo, while keeping Moscow untouched and focusing more on China as a trade rival than as an authoritarian military threat to Washington's interests and the remaining democracies on our planet.
>Second, the war in Ukraine cannot be stopped at the point where it is today without security guarantees, that is, without American intervention, which seems to favour the interests and intentions of the invader rather than the Ukrainian people. Third, the Middle East peace agreement cannot even move to the next phase, let alone be completed, without American guarantees.
In addition, tensions over foreign policy issues on the international chessboard translate as a risk multiplier for the cohesion of societies and their resilience to external and internal threats. The military conflicts in the Middle East, as well as the internal turbulence and climate change affecting Africa, create migratory flows, with accumulated effects that cannot be absorbed by local Western societies, resulting in polarization, xenophobia and often racism, which are fully exploited by far-right movements.
At the same time, these same movements often reproduce and magnify Russian propaganda against Ukraine, Europe and the West in general, even including the war against the woke agenda in the discussion. The tone from the top, as with the election of Trump in the USA, is an external multiplier of all these internal tendencies.
So, where does internal security stop and where does external security stop? Can the security forces, the police, the army, the intelligence services, the rescue centers work independently of each other, or is a new Unified Security Doctrine inviolably required, which will move along the axes of inclusive security and human security? What constitutes border protection? Citizen protection? Protection of democracy? And what factors does a modern safety equation consist of? In the new era that humanity is going through, all of the above must be answered by every government.
*Anna Koukkidi – Prokopiou
2026 Yale Peace Fellow, Member of EMI – Eastern Mediterranean Initiative, Geneva Centre for Security/SwissPeace and President of the POLITEIA think tank.
