in-cyprus 16 November 2025 - by Frixos Dalitis
Powerful seismic and aftershocks are predicted for the political scene in Cyprus, as the trends recorded so far suggest the country, besides the geological earthquake, will be hit by the electoral upheaval of the parliamentary elections. The time distance from Sunday, May 24, 2026, may be significant, yet analysts’ assessments indicate that, generally, a disposition for a negative vote exists towards traditional parties and a tendency towards more anti-establishment choices.
The last two public opinion polls from Reporter and RIK reflect these societal trends, which, if ultimately expressed at the ballot box, predict strong political Richter magnitudes. These, in turn, are expected to cause a domino effect of developments in the parties’ high offices.
All this holds true, of course, provided no shocking events or developments arise along the way that could completely overturn the picture. A disaster or an accident like the one at Mari, a political scandal, or even geopolitical developments in the wider region or the Cyprus problem could create entirely new facts and new voting criteria for society. Even the formation of a new political force can function in a subversive manner.
The conditions were different, for example, before the announced intention to create the “Direct Democracy” party by Phidias Panayiotou, compared to how trends are shaping up today, just as the conditions were different before the creation of “Alma” by Odysseas Michaelides. Consequently, the assessments concern the X-ray of intentions at this given moment, and under the prerequisite that nothing shockingly unexpected occurs.
Will They Break the 20% Barrier?
The battle for first place between DISY and AKEL may ultimately hold no significance whatsoever if the worst-case scenarios from the ballot box are confirmed for Pindarou (DISY headquarters) and Ezekia Papaioannou (AKEL headquarters). For the first time in their history, the two major parties are likely to be confined to percentages below 20%. As extreme as this scenario may seem, strong indications now exist that it can happen, as a result of the trend for a total overhaul of the party map.
Beyond the numerical data recorded by the polls so far, factors exist that reinforce this anxiety in the high offices of the two parties. The first factor applying pressure to Pindarou and Ezekia Papaioannou is the new and old party formations to which they appear to be losing percentages. In the initial equation were mainly DISY’s losses to ELAM and the estimates for AKEL leaks to Volt. Subsequently, the factor of “Alma” by Odysseas Michaelides entered the scene. The data were already difficult when Phidias Panayiotou returned to the forefront with the creation of “Direct Democracy”. Whatever percentage the MEP’s party formation ultimately receives, should it enter Parliament—which it has strong chances of achieving easily—this means percentages will be subtracted from the remaining parties.
In the last European elections, DISY and AKEL were confined to 24.78% and 21.49%, respectively. The trend of their percentage shrinkage is continuous. The approximately 70 thousand voters (19.36%) who then supported Phidias Panayiotou as an individual are not votes that will automatically transfer to his party, yet these are voters who will likely choose something beyond the traditional parties again.
The scene for the parliamentary elections is even more pressing and fluid. For DISY, the leakage of voters towards ELAM appears greater and is reflected by some movement of party members or the participation of former DISY members, such as Hamboullas and Papacharalambous, besides Marios Pelekanos, on the party’s ballot. DISY and AKEL also face pressure from Odysseas Michaelides’ Alma.
To summarise:
If approximately 20% of the voters who supported Phidias Panayiotou is distributed to other choices,
If ELAM moves towards 12–15%,
And if the new formations (Volt, DEK of Andreas Themistocleous, DIMAL of Christos Clerides, Green Party, “Sikou Panou,” KEK, Animal Party) collectively garner 10–12%, the pie the current parliamentary parties will have to share will shrink to 50–60%. DISY, AKEL, DIKO, EDEK, DIPA, and the Ecologists will have to divide this percentage.
A determining factor will be the cohesion that DISY manages to achieve, which so far records extremely low cohesion. For AKEL, cohesion is very high for the season, and the goal focuses on mobilising its inactive voters, with attention focused on preparing its ballots—an element also important for the party’s electoral percentage.
Odysseas’ Pressure on Centre Parties
Another element of the political scene’s trends is the stabilisation of Odysseas Michaelides’ Alma at a double-digit percentage, which constitutes his electoral goal. Alma, which, as has been repeatedly declared, identifies itself ideologically within the “radical centre,” exerts enormous electoral pressure on the traditional Centre parties.
Surveys so far show that DIKO and EDEK suffer large leaks towards Alma. In EDEK’s case, this is reflected by the participation of its former members in the new formation. The possibility of the former MEP Dimitris Papadakis and members of “Aichmi,” composed mainly of former EDEK members who have left or been expelled, joining is also considered open.
This explains the fierce attack launched in recent days by Nicolas Papadopoulos and Nikos Anastasiou against Odysseas Michaelides, whom, particularly DIKO, supported while he was the Auditor General. Alma appears to draw percentages from DIPA and the Ecologists too.
DIKO risks finding itself below 10% for the first time in its history, while the other parties fight a survival battle for entry into Parliament. Estimates suggest that all three will probably not manage to enter, and a scenario exists where none will enter if Volt records a high percentage. It remains questionable whether the repeated accusations by Andreas Chasapopoulos against Odysseas Michaelides will come at a cost and whether they will cause new departures.
Garoyan’s Withdrawal
Marios Garoyan, although he has not officially announced it, appears that he will ultimately not be a parliamentary candidate. He is expected to gradually withdraw from DIPA’s leadership as well. The objective for the party is to maintain its parliamentary presence.
Garoyan, with his likes and dislikes, possesses an audience that follows him. He is a personality that gives a particular political character to the space. That is why the “keys” to DIPA were handed over to him during its foundation in 2019, resulting in the party’s entry into Parliament in 2021 and the election of four MPs. His absence from the ballot is certainly expected to come at a cost for DIPA.
Phidias’ Popularity Falls – The Dialogue with Tornaritis
A noteworthy element recorded by the polls is that Phidias Panayiotou’s popularity as an individual is plummeting. His image is now considered quite to very negative by society. At the same time, however, “Direct Democracy” as a party appears to secure a comfortable entry into Parliament. Estimates even suggest that it may record an even higher percentage at the ballot box than the polls show. How does this happen?
At this point, the methodology of polling and the difficulties that companies face enter the equation. The percentage of those responding to telephone surveys is now very small. The number of required calls is multiplied beyond the sample size, as the overwhelming majority does not answer. Those who participate are usually more politicised and hold a more traditional view. Phidias Panayiotou’s audience does not fall into this category. A significant percentage of his support comes from younger ages who operate with different political criteria and on whom Phidias has a great appeal due to communication skills on social media.
Therefore, his highly negative image in the polls may not be completely indicative, considering the perception gap between voters of traditional parties and his audience. According to analyses of the European elections, 50% of those who voted for him did so as a reaction, and the other half did so consciously—a factor that must be taken into account.
It remains unknown who the party’s candidates will be, something which could affect its dynamic positively or negatively. The percentage of young voters’ participation is also an unpredictable factor.
It is also heard behind the scenes that a new approach occurred between Phidias Panayiotou and Christoforos Tornaritis for a possible electoral cooperation between “Direct Democracy” and “Sikou Panou” (Tornaritis’s party literally meaning get up). This information, in other times, would be insignificant, but in the current fluid scene, it holds significance.
