Filenews 16 November 2025
Demand for olive oil is forecast to continue to rise, due in part to its low price, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on Friday, expecting a "possible" record level of trade during the current period, despite tariffs imposed by the US government.
After a period of drought that led to a decrease in supply and a sharp increase in price, at the beginning of 2024, production was restored and is expected to be stable for the 2025-26 season, at 3.4 million tons, according to the FAO.
The wholesale price in Spain, the world's largest producer (about 40% of the total) fell by almost half compared to the peak price reached in January 2024. In September, it had fallen by 13% below the average price of the last five years. The trend is similar in Greece.
In contrast, the price remains quite high in Italy, where the drought extended into the summer of 2024.
In terms of production, the abundant rains in Tunisia led to a record harvest of more than 400,000 tons, which means that this country could emerge as the world's second-largest producer for the 2025-26 season, with 13% of the total.
Spain had good weather conditions at the beginning of the season, but in the summer it experienced drought and the volume of production is expected to be stable, while in Greece and Turkey the harvest is expected to be smaller compared to last year.
"Global consumption and trade are expected to continue to grow" although the former will not yet return to pre-2022 levels, the FAO estimates.
The EU will remain the largest exporter of olive oil "although the increased tariffs imposed by the US may lead to a decrease in volumes," the report added.
– In Cyprus, several olive mills buy oil at a wholesale price at prices between €4 and €5 per liter. Olive oil in bulk, in the retail market, by producers, is currently sold from €5 to €7 per liter.
