Filenews 29 November 2025 - by Despina Psyllou
The coming years are ominous for Cyprus, as this year's summer November is an indication of the extinction of autumn as we knew it. The increase in temperature is a fact, as a consequence of climate change. From the beginning of this year until November, 67% of the days, that is, 219 out of 328, were warmer than normal. The need for air conditioning tends to more than triple in the coming years, with an increase of 153%. Cyprus is estimated to turn into Cairo. At the same time, the rain is scarce and is expected to occur with rarer episodes of greater intensity and destruction. Last year, 1.3 billion tons less rainwater than the normal thirty years, while a reduction in rainfall of up to 20% compared to the beginning of the 20th century is expected.
"Often, we refer to the fact that times have changed, when this is partly correct," says Professor at the Centre for Climate and Atmospheric Research (CARE-C) of the Cyprus Institute, Dr. Panos Hadjinikolaou. In fact, he points out, what has changed is that some months are warmer and are now warmer.
Cyprus, he says, has been warming by 0.4 to 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade since 1981, while autumn rainfall has fallen by 5 to 10 millimeters per decade. "In 2025, Athalassa station in Nicosia recorded 219 out of 328 days (67%) above the long-term average."
Regarding this November (until the 25th of the month), Dr. Hatzinikolaou noted that he had not seen anything similar in the last 43 years where measurements are made at the Athalassa station, as it shows extreme deviations, which reach up to 8 degrees Celsius above normal. In fact, they make November, along with March, the months with the greatest warming in the period 2001-2024 compared to 1983-2000 (about +2 degrees Celsius)."
"From November this year we get a taste earlier than what we expected to happen after the middle to the end of the century. In other words, to experience November as September," he said and added that volatility is also changing. "Extreme values are easily recorded both upwards and downwards. We will have more ups and downs," he underlined.
Dr.. Hatzinikolaou, also states that the prolonged drought that preceded all these months may have contributed to the high temperatures of November. "When there is moisture in the soil, it evaporates. Evaporation is accompanied by cooling of the atmosphere," he explained, among other things.
Predictions for the future: What will happen to the temperature?
Temperature increase as well as other challenges are also highlighted in the study of the Cyprus Institute "Climate change and extreme phenomena on the Mediterranean island of Cyprus: From historical trends to future predictions", which was prepared in 2011 and updated in the academic year 2024-2025.
Among other things, the following are expected:
- An increase in the so-called summer days, that is, those that will exceed 35 degrees in temperature.
- A reduction in rainfall of up to 20% by the middle to the end of the century compared to its beginnings.
- Reduction of rain in quantity and incidents, any incidents, although rarer, will be more intense.
- An increase in the need for cooling from air conditioning – CDD (Cooling Degree Days) index – by up to 153% by the end of the century. "That is, it will more than double, increasing from 442 to 1,116 degree-days, while heating needs are halved."
The economic costs and health consequences
The increase in temperature has an impact on various sectors, such as health and the economy, points out Mr. Hatzinikolaou.
Among other things, the increase in temperature means "heat stress" for citizens, as well as an increase in deaths. Visible consequences are also expected in the plant and animal kingdoms, with possible extinctions of endemic species. "Of course, all sectors translate into money in the end."
"As Cyprus, what the authorities can do is defensive actions." For example, he said, early warning models should be improved and actions should be taken by sector. "Let's say, for drought, to have smart technologies that warn farmers to reduce humidity. So, we want early warning and preparation. Adaptation is very important," he concluded.
Kleanthis Nikolaidis: We will become Cairo. 1.3 billion tons less rainwater last year compared to 30 years ago
The effects of climate change will be serious for Cyprus, with its future looming, says the former director of the Department of Meteorology, Kleanthis Nicolaides. Our country, he said, around the middle of the century (around 2055) will have the climate of Cairo. "That is, very often 40s, which will be extended beyond July and August"
"What are we observing today? That our temperatures are 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above the reference temperatures. Our winters are getting warmer throughout Cyprus and the rain is decreasing," he says.
"In the period 1941-1970, the average cumulative rainfall for Cyprus was about 533 mm. The current thirty years (1991 – 2020) have about 450 millimeters. We have a downward difference of about 80 millimeters. These numbers are of enormous importance, as 1 millimeter of rain across Cyprus is equivalent to 9.5 million tons of water. We are losing tons of water and this is also shown by the calculation of 80 X 9.5 million. which is equal to almost 1 billion. tons of water".
Last year, we had only 313 millimeters of rain throughout Cyprus, he pointed out. In other words, we had 137 millimeters less rain compared to the last thirty years, that is, 1.3 billion tons less water.
The effects of climate change in Cyprus, in addition to the amount of rain, can also be seen in its intensity. "Instead of having mild rains, we have extreme rains with a very large volume of water, very local characteristics in a short period of time." Besides, he underlined, "we no longer have first rains. That is, to rain light rains throughout Cyprus for a day or two." On the contrary, he points out, on November 21 the mercury jumped to 30 degrees, almost 10 points above normal.
These irrational weather behaviours, notes Mr. Nikolaidis, affect nature, which should – with the drop in temperatures – hibernate. "A few days ago, "F" wrote that they found a viper on a path. The mulberry trees (in fact, at a very high altitude) have not shed their leaves. The roses continue to bloom."
The only solution that Mr. Nikolaidis sees to deal with the consequences and enrich the underground aquifer, to fill the dams, to irrigate crops and forests and to save ourselves from the expensive water of desalination, is to enhance the rain by artificial means, i.e. the seeding of clouds.
