Filenews 11 August 2025
Mihir Sharma
Indians, still reeling from President Donald Trump's 50 percent tariffs, have come to a bitter conclusion: The U.S. leader seems to be singling out New Delhi while releasing Russia's real supporters in China.
The Indian establishment, which largely welcomed Trump's rise to power and genuinely believed that the two countries were on the threshold of a mutually beneficial deal, seems somewhat shocked. Few could have foreseen the humiliation of being almost the only country to come out of the negotiations with higher tariffs than those with which it was threatened. It wasn't the best time for Indian diplomacy either – Reuters quoted an official as saying that "we didn't have the necessary diplomatic support after the US struck better deals with Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan and the EU".
Perhaps this is why the reaction of the Foreign Ministry has been relatively subdued. Hoping that the negotiations could still be salvaged, New Delhi called the tariffs "unfair, unjustified and unreasonable," correctly pointing out that the U.S. continues to buy billions of dollars worth of fertilizers and uranium from Russia annually. With this statement, he also attacked the European Union, which wants freer trade with India, not tariff walls – but attacking the EU is usually everyone's preferred move in international relations, including Europeans.
It is true that India is not the only one. The Japanese, for example, have returned to buying crude oil from Russia, but no one seems to be chasing them. What the Indian statement did not mention, but could have stated, is that China has not accepted any penalties for its fat energy purchases from Russia.
This silence, however, masks great indignation. China is a much more reasonable target for Trump's wrath if control of Russia is really what he wants. Beijing provides far more substantial support — economic and political — to President Vladimir Putin than New Delhi does.
But China, it seems, is too big for Trump to intimidate now. It will likely be given more time than others to its negotiators to reach an agreement with the U.S., and it may continue to support Moscow with impunity that India has seen denied. (Trump said this week that he could punish Beijing with additional tariffs on Russian energy, although one of his top advisers downplayed the possibility.)
A New Delhi dissatisfied with the different treatment Beijing receives will shift the target of its discontent from China to the US. Policymakers who would welcome a U.S. trade war against China feel very differently about an America that avoids this confrontation to hit India instead. Beijing is emerging with its regime strengthened, the only country that can take on Trump.
The difference in approach hurts in part because Russian action is not as important to India as some might think. The rating agency ICRA estimates that India saved only $3.8 billion last fiscal year thanks to Russian oil – compare that to the $242 billion it spent on crude imports in total. Not all this $3.8 billion is being transferred to ordinary citizens either. A significant proportion of refined oil is re-exported, reducing consumer bills in the rest of the world.
Given the reduced discount to Russian oil, most in New Delhi assumed that the shift to other sources – including U.S. supplies – would probably be done sooner. But they didn't think there was any rush — perhaps this was part of a broader agreement between India and the U.S. This assumption was clearly unwise and was born out of overconfidence.
Change now – because of the US president – will have a serious political cost. Modi's opponents, acknowledging a rare opportunity to outdo him on issues of nationalism, accused him of being weak in the face of Trump. A current of anti-Americanism runs deep among the intellectual class, and India's unjust discrimination has brought it all to the surface.
When surrounded by unrestrained voices declaring that national pride is at stake, it is difficult for most leaders to make rational decisions. The government bears some responsibility for making the relatively small profits from Russia's trade sound like a matter of vital national interest. Now, he will have to find a way to gracefully reverse this message.
Others, unfriendly to the U.S. are also making moves to take advantage of New Delhi's embarrassment. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva — who has been hit by tariffs that are ostensibly political in nature — has called on Modii to form a united front against Trump. It has been reported that senior officials are soon to travel to Moscow – and the prime minister himself may travel to China for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in which Beijing has a leading role.
A trip to China by Modi would have been unthinkable just about a year ago – he has not visited it once in seven years. But it's not surprising, given that China seems to be able to shake off the attacks that India is facing. The only country Trump cannot terrorize may also be the only source of protection from him.
