Filenews 22 July 2025 - by Max Hastings
Donald Trump, as president of the United States, claims a unique distinction. In all previous terms in the White House, there were periods – even months – when even educated, informed British, Germans, Indians, Brazilians, French, or Australians did not pay attention to America's leader.
Of course, it focused our attention when a president visited our country or started a war or was put on trial or had an incredibly beautiful wife who dressed wonderfully. We knew that the U.S. was the richest and most influential country on earth, and that in important matters, we had to play the role of follower. But even someone like me, who lived in the U.S. for a few years and visited it regularly until January 2025, didn't wake up at night wondering what our neighbourhood's superpower could do next.
Today, this has changed. We used to make fun of the nervous guys who spent their lives terrified that a plane might crash into their house at some point. Now, however, we know exactly how these people feel.
We are hypnotized, haunted, by what Trump says and does, because no one can predict the next mood swing. That pleases him. All he wants from life is unimaginable riches and the rest of us to bow to his every whim. He is the Sun King, the focus of global attention, because he has shown the willingness and strength to cause a storm, or to shine, depending on the impulse.
No one should be able to pretend that this is normal. It is absolutely unnatural. It represents a political climate change, somehow more complicated than the fact that we live on a planet that is warming more and more. This is because some days our country – whatever it is – is in the microwave of the White House, while other days, suddenly, it is exposed to ice.
The latest example is Trump's announcement that the US will send Ukraine new air defense systems, which have been purchased by NATO members, along with long-range missiles. This is undoubtedly good news. Residents of Ukrainian cities endure nighttime strikes from Russian missiles and drones against which they have become almost defenseless, as the flow of American weapons has slowed.
The big question is how serious is the president's reversal after months of being critical of Ukraine and its leader – and how long it will last. He says he is "disappointed" with Vladimir Putin, but "is not done with him". Since his inauguration, Russian oligarchs have been able to operate more freely in the U.S., and Washington's agencies tasked with monitoring their activities have been shut down.
Trump has renewed his support for Ukraine mainly because he feels he is being snubbed by Putin personally. If that changes, so could U.S. policy.
At the same time, there is also the global economy. Some of the smartest economists say they are unsure whether U.S. businesses can survive the rollercoaster of terror started by Trump, more prominently that of tariffs, or whether the economy will sink. The deliberate uncertainty about the future of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, with attacks repeated by Trump last week, further shakes confidence.
The respected Martin Woolf of the Financial Times is among those who characterize Trump's tariffs as "crazy," an adjective he repeated this week. Mohamed El-Erian, a former Wall Street investment mind and now a prominent academic, is among those who admit he has no idea how Trump's capital will evolve.
We should never underestimate America's resilience and amazing capacity for innovation. But he writes in Foreign Affairs that the only rational course for other nations is to build strong economic defenses and reduce their dependence on the U.S. while creating new relationships, because there is no early prospect, and perhaps no prospect even after Trump, that the U.S. will regain its historic role as a reliable partner.
El-Erian warns both nations and companies against what behavioural science researchers call "active inaction" — "when actors recognize that they need to behave differently, but end up sticking to familiar patterns and approaches."
The question that almost every government in the world asks itself is whether it dares to defy Trump. Two weeks ago, he warned Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva that he would impose 50% tariffs on the country's exports to the U.S. unless criminal proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro were halted for attempting a coup attempt in 2022 to retain power after his defeat in the last election.
There is no excuse that this threat is linked to trade balances. It's just one element of what we might call Trump's dictator protection program. He was a staunch supporter of Bolsonaro, who is widely regarded as a formidable as well as corrupt leader. Bolsonaro's son, Eduardo, has close personal ties to the Trump family.
Lula responded angrily to Trump's threat, saying that "no one is above the law." His country's exports to the U.S. amount to just 2 percent of its GDP, but a 50 percent tariff would undoubtedly cause a stir.
The European Union faces even more serious dilemmas in determining its response to Trump's pressures, supported by tariff threats, on behalf of American Big Tech. Here there is an issue that goes beyond mere trade. Tech giants benefit greatly from operating almost open content policies, which some of us consider deeply dangerous, especially for young people.
Brussels is trying to regulate social media and punish companies that spread anti-social content. But Trump is fighting to allow tech giants to enjoy a free field of action — "free speech," as he and his followers call it — and escape EU punishment. Europe's fear of a broader trade war is so great that its regulators may even bow to Washington. It is highly doubtful whether the EU will risk using its Anti-Coercion Instrument against America, even though tariff blackmail offers an obvious excuse to do so.
Then there's Iran. Will the U.S. attempt to negotiate with the mullahs over its nuclear program or will it return to bombing? My friends, including a very well-informed Israeli, say that Benjamin Netanyahu fooled Trump into participating in his war – that the Iranians, while arguably a malicious force, were not going to build a nuclear weapon – and that power alone cannot solve the problems and threats posed by Iran's regional aggression.
However, we cannot know if Trump's feelings for Netanyahu will finally "end" him, as he now declares that he fell in love with Putin. The president himself does not know what he may do, or not do, next Tuesday. It's this ignorance that scares people so much – and makes us talk about Donald Trump almost every day.
Rendering – Editing: Lydia Roubopoulou
