Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the press that Israel's continued attacks on Iran were necessary because of the rapid acceleration of Iran's nuclear program, which he described as an "immediate existential threat." While Israel's official justification—or casus belli—was to halt Iran's nuclear progress, Israeli leaders may have had broader strategic goals in mind.
Iran's nuclear program may have attracted international interest, but in the past it has been its conventional missiles that have caused damage. That is why Israel's attack was not only about Iran's nuclear facilities, but also about its military bases, with the aim of preventing Iran from transporting its missiles from warehouses to launch bases. In addition, Israel hit Iran's air defense network by destroying dozens of radar stations and launchers.
What are Iran's nuclear capabilities?
To build a nuclear bomb, uranium must be 90 percent enriched, and Iran has a growing stock of uranium enriched to 60 percent, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran's nuclear program accelerated after the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, which blocked inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities by international observers. Iran's nuclear program is spread across more than 12 locations across the Islamic Republic. The largest uranium enrichment facility is located in Natanz and has already been targeted by Israel.
Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons, but according to public statements, Israeli leaders estimate that Iran could produce the fissile material to produce eight nuclear warheads within two weeks. Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, claimed in an interview with NPR last week that Israel had information that Iran was "running" a secret program to develop all the necessary parts to assemble a bomb — a goal that accelerated after the Hezbollah leader was killed. Hassan Nasrallah, from Israel in September 2024.
Israel's strikes in October 2024 against Iran caused critical damage to the air defense around its nuclear facilities. Most of them are underground. In order for the underground installations to suffer substantial damage, they will have to receive a very strong blow, in proportion to the location and the protection measures of each infrastructure.
The Iranian army compared to the Israeli Defense Forces
Targeting Iran's nuclear facilities will be difficult, although the superiority of Israeli power in the skies can be further expanded. Israel has a much more modern air force, with F-351 stealth fighters and upgraded F-15 and F-16 surveillance aircraft, and has the ability to hit targets with high precision.
In contrast, Iran's air force is outdated and shows signs of "abandonment." It has over 300 aircraft, including American F-4s and F-5s, as well as MiG-29s from the Soviet era, but its fleet was purchased decades ago. Iran's air defense network is particularly weak, with recent Israeli strikes encountering little resistance. Israeli F-16s arrived less than 50 miles from Tehran, and Iran was only able to lift one MiG-29 to defend the capital. Instead of upgrading its air force, Iran has relied on missile storage.
In the past, the most effective way Iran used to strike Israel was ballistic missiles. For this purpose, it needed medium-range missiles that can travel over 600 miles (1,000 kilometers), and Iran has a wide range of such missiles that it acquired through its cooperation with North Korea.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence estimated in 2024 that Iran has the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, according to Euronews, with about 3,000 ballistic missiles and an unknown number of cruise missiles. Among Iran's ballistic missiles is the Sejil, which can develop speeds of more than 10,500 miles per hour and a range of 1,550 miles (2,000 kilometers). Sejil was reportedly used by Hezbollah in attacks against Israel in October 2024. Iran claims to have developed a high-precision hypersonic missile, the Fattah, which can be launched at breakneck speed, making it harder to intercept.
Many of these missiles were damaged by Israel's June 13 attack. In addition, two-thirds of these missiles are medium-range and therefore can hit Israel. It is unclear how many missiles were ready for launch. Iran would lose its deterrent power if it launched all of its ballistic missiles, so it cannot use its entire arsenal to respond to Israel. The New York Times reported that Iran initially wanted to respond with 1,000 missiles, but eventually fired about 200.
In addition, with the Iron Dome, Israel has a multi-layered missile defense network that can intercept short-range missiles, while David's Sling and Arrow can counter medium- and long-range threats, including cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. These defense systems were tested in April 2024, when Iran retaliated for Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. However, despite the involvement of more than 170 drones and 150 cruise and ballistic missiles, the attack caused minimal damage to Israel, and the vast majority of them were shot down.
When Iran attacked Israel in October 2024 with about 150 ballistic missiles, most of them were intercepted again. Israel's recent offensive was aimed at further limiting Iran's missile launch capabilities. On Friday, Tel Aviv also struck Tabriz – the site from which Iranian missiles were launched against Israel in October 2024.
With its conventional weapons being neutralized, Iran does not have much potential to strike Israel critically. Historically, Iran has opted for smaller targets, firing missiles at critical infrastructure to undermine stability in the region. Through his proxies in the region, he sent drones to oil facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019, disrupting the global supply chain, fired ballistic missiles from Iranian territory at two U.S. military bases in Iraq in 2020, and targeted the al-Assad air base in Iraq with ballistic missiles and rockets in January 2024. These attacks were mostly aimed at creating unrest, as the permanent military damage they caused was small. The most effective strategy for retaliation that Iran can implement is sabotage.
The blockade on Iran's nuclear ambitions
Trying to thwart Iran's nuclear program remains a key priority for both the U.S. and Israel. While the Trump administration has emphasized bilateral talks to address Tehran's nuclear program and nuclear ambitions, Israel has not shown much patience to wait to see how these negotiations unfold.
To justify its recent attack on Iran, Israel claimed to have information that Tehran was ready to equip its ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. But targeting nuclear facilities has had little success in the past. In June 1981, the Israeli attack on a nuclear reactor in Iraq caused some damage, but triggered the Tehran regime to become more determined in acquiring nuclear weapons.
Although it is difficult to eliminate Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel has managed to significantly weaken Iran's missile arsenal.
