Filenews 24 April 2025 - by Marc Champion
Donald Trump likes to talk about himself in the superlative, and this is entirely justified: No U.S. president in modern history has launched so many ambitious foreign policy initiatives in such a short period of time. These include his efforts to transform the terms of world trade, end the intractable wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and combat the threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East without starting a war with Iran.
If he succeeds in all of these endeavours, even the most hardline "anti-Trumpists" will have to recognize his ability to bring about change and close issues where others have failed. At the same time, however, Trump's supporters must recognize that his approach may well fail in ways that will leave the world in a frighteningly worse situation. And that would make him, to borrow the words he used for Joe Biden on Easter Sunday, "our WORST and most incompetent president."
This more radical U.S. government seems to be dangerously close to a scene taken from Looney Tunes' Coyote. This is the scene towards the end of almost every episode of the cartoon, where the hero is still furiously chasing his nemesis, Rhode Runner, but does not realize that he has run over the edge of the cliff and has no choice but to fall. There is still time for the government to return to solid ground, although there is little evidence that it will.
Let's start with the war in Ukraine. Trump firmly believed, when he took office just a few months ago, that Kiev was the main obstacle to its termination. His strategy seems to have been to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the vast majority of Russian demands, as well as a deal on resources that would mortgage his country's economic future to the United States.
But Zelensky has never been the main obstacle to peace. This dubious "honour" is held by Russian President Vladimir Putin, a man whom Trump clearly admires and wants to use as an ally against both liberal Europe and communist China. The Russian leader invaded Ukraine three years ago to regain control of the wealthiest colony of the former Soviet and Russian empires, and he sees no reason to abandon that goal now — especially with a leader in the White House who so clearly wants to make friends. Putin insists that not only must all current Russian territorial claims be satisfied before any ceasefire, but also Western sanctions must be lifted and Ukraine "demilitarized" so that it can finish its work later.
Ukraine has long accepted U.S. terms for an unconditional initial 30-day ceasefire and has said it is ready to sign the U.S. government's request for control of all Ukrainian investments in minerals and infrastructure, as well as 50 percent of their revenues, as early as this week. Putin, however, has not agreed to anything. In a sign of frustration in Washington, Foreign Minister Marco Rubio threatened on Friday that the U.S. would withdraw if there was no progress. Putin declared a 30-hour Easter truce the next day, no doubt to turn attention back to Ukraine.
This is a decisive moment. If the U.S. withdraws not only from the peace talks, but also from Ukraine's defense, it will mark a huge victory for Moscow. However, such a move would not produce peace. Instead, it will guarantee more dead Ukrainians and more European instability than before Trump was involved, because Kiev will have no choice but to continue fighting against this existential Russian threat. Government officials are planning more ceasefire talks this week.
What Trump and his associates need to do is unfreeze arms shipments to Ukraine and increase sanctions against Moscow to make it clear that its maximalist war goals are unattainable. The only way for Putin to avoid escalating the damage to the economy and his people would be to negotiate a lasting end to the conflict, with seriousness. Unfortunately, with Trump reserving a vitriolic stance towards Zelensky, there is little indication that this will happen.
Perhaps the best we can hope for is that Trump will learn from the U.S. administration's experience in talks with Iran. There, Trump is also trying to contain the aggressive intentions of a country he considers an ally, in this case Israel. Trump's goal is to be admired: What reasonable person would prefer to see Iran's nuclear ambitions tempered through war, if that can be done through negotiation? This is true even if in this case Tehran – unlike Kiev – is indeed the ultimate culprit, having financed and armed Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel, while pursuing an illegal nuclear program for decades.
So, here, again, we are faced with a decisive moment. Trump sent fellow real estate agent Steve Witkov, his personal envoy for everything, to talk to the Iranians, mediated by Oman. Witkov quickly realized that while the Iranians in their current weakened state may be open to a reduction of their nuclear enrichment program to the levels that warrant a strictly civilian use, they are not going to destroy it completely. Nor will they abandon ballistic missile production or cut off all contact with the so-called Axis of Resistance – from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen – as Israel and some officials in the Trump administration demand.
Victory is never easy in geopolitics, because countries rarely capitulate unless defeat forces them. This is true for both Ukraine and Iran, for China, as it resists Trump's attack on its trade surpluses, and for Hamas – albeit a terrorist organization rather than a state – in Gaza. If the U.S. president recognizes this fact, looking downwards, before taking the step on the Coyote cliff, then he can slow down, adopt more feasible strategies, and offer solutions instead of chaos.
I don't expect much. All one can do is hope that Trump will avoid the alternative, one that would cause a series of dramatic foreign policy failures and that would strip him of the title of the genius negotiator he thinks he is, leaving him with the one he gave Biden on Sunday: an "extremely destructive idiot."
Rendering – Editing: Lydia Roubopoulou
