Filenews 14 February 2025
Olive oil is entering a phase of gradual de-escalation of prices, after the rapid rise recorded in 2024 due to low production and increased demand. According to Niki Yavroglou, CEO of Hellenic Fine Oils, producer prices have already fallen, however, the decline has not been fully reflected on supermarket shelves.
Why prices haven't fallen yet
As Yiavroglou explains, formulators and supermarkets have stocks bought at high prices, so the reduction is delayed. It is expected that within the next 1-2 months, the de-escalation will also be seen by consumers.
At the same time, reduced demand from Italy and high stocks from Spain – which this year exceed 1 million tonnes – are creating additional pressure on prices. Standardizers in Greece already buy extra virgin olive oil below €4.5 per kilo, while in Laconia the producer price reaches €4.3.
How the market is shaped
Experts expect the price decline to continue, as Turkey has doubled its production, while Spain and Tunisia are recording strong returns. Similarly, George Mitrakos (SEVITEL) confirms that the de-escalation is already evident and that from the end of February prices in supermarkets will fully reflect the new reality.
How much will the shelf price decrease?
The estimate is that the price of extra virgin olive oil will fall below €8 per kilo and will be €6.5-7, with supermarket offers affecting the final price.
Developments in Spain, where the May bloom will determine the next harvest, will give a clearer picture of the market's trajectory in 2026. Until then, consumers expect the reduction to be fully passed on to retail prices.
