Filenews 17 January 1015 - by Malik Kaylan
The Russians may be gaining ground in Ukraine, but they are losing throughout the rest of the world. In fact, Putin is losing. And it also loses its legitimacy. We will talk in detail about where Russia is retreating. And surely we have to thank Ukraine's monumental sacrifice for this. For Putin, of course, the sacrifice is worth it as long as it leads to Moscow's victory over Kiev. Because it will also be able to use Ukraine's resources and regain its lost prestige.
Syria was the first domino to fall. Mainly because Russia wasted military resources in Ukraine and was unable to defend the Assad regime. But there is another factor that led to the collapse of Russian power in Syria with... suspicious speed; From this column we have again referred to the scenario of a deal where Russia is "allowed" to prevail over Ukraine. In return, Israel neutralizes Iran and its proxies. Which means Israel can even directly bomb Iran, something for which U.S. presidents have steadfastly refused to give the green light. This will change soon.
Evidence has just emerged confirming half of this deal: that Moscow "sold" Iran and its proxies. This does not diminish the value of Ukraine, which with its resistance has exhausted Russian military resources, nor does it underestimate Israel, which has levelled Iran's proxies. Nevertheless, it appears that Putin has given up on Syria. Iran's top military official said in a speech that Russia had "sold out." According to a January 9 New York Times article titled "Top Iranian General Admits Big Defeat in Syria," General Behrouz Esbati made a number of startling revelations — among other things, claiming that Russia "deceived Iran." And furthermore that the Russians had "turned off radars" to allow Israel to bomb targets in Syria. The international media have rarely recorded such silence from two such major world powers on issues that concern them.
Still, Syria's collapse, combined with slow but steady attrition in Ukraine, has severely damaged Russia's prestige, emboldening its adversaries around the world. Turkey has benefited immensely in Syria and elsewhere. The Turks banned Russian ships from entering Turkish ports. And they have sent proxies to Libya against Moscow-backed General Haftar. In Georgia's breakaway provinces, things are not looking good for Putin – Abkhazia's pro-Russian president was forced to resign due to mass anti-Russian protests. Azerbaijan has publicly rebuked Moscow for the recent downing of the Azerbaijani plane over Chechnya. The pro-Putin strongman of Chechnya, Kadyrov, is disgraced for this insult and his public support for suspects of assassination attempts in Uzbekistan. In Moldova's separatist region of Transnistria, the pro-Putin regime is wobbling as the world freezes because Ukraine shut down a gas pipeline coming from Russia. Armenia has renounced its alliance with Moscow. Romania's pro-Russia presidential candidate has been rejected by the country's Supreme Court. Across Africa, particularly in Sudan, Russia's shadow is shrinking after the loss of Syrian ports from where goods were transported to the south. Even in Ukraine, Moscow has resorted to the solution of imported mercenaries after running out of Russian troops.
So far the direct beneficiaries of this Russian retreat have been Israel and Turkey. For the West, this picture is a historic opportunity. Putin's overeffort in Ukraine has given Western allies ample opportunity to block the regime's attempt to recreate the Russian Empire. At a time when the West's global and regional rivals are expanding their influence in Europe, the Middle East and the Far East, circumstances continue to be favorable to stem this trend – and the West continues to miss the opportunity.
For example: Europe and the USA have underestimated the events in Tbilisi over the years. Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008 and regime change led to Russian attacks on Ukraine. Eventually, Georgians took their fate into their own hands by taking to the streets to oust the pro-Russian government of Bidzina Ivanishvili, and we hear some voices in the US Congress publicly supporting them. Finally.
It is clear that for the West to begin unravelling Putin's imperial web of intrigue and power, Western leaders must consider what a post-Putin Russia — even a smaller Russia — will look like. When this is done, it will mean that EU and US leaders intend to truly exploit events in Syria and chart a stable future. Unfortunately, such a debate has not yet been opened.
