Filenews 10 December 2024 - by Hal Brands
Many factors contributed to the downfall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that led the offensive; Turkey, which strengthened and supported HTS; The numerous Syrian groups and civilians who delivered the "final punch" to the hated tyrant. But Assad's fall was also the work of Yahya Sinwar.
When Sinwar ordered Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, he intended to spark a revolution in the Middle East. Today, the region is being reshaped, but not as he wanted: The successful Israeli offensive has destroyed Hamas and the rest of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," and Assad is its most recent victim.
The Hamas militants who invaded Israel on October 7 sought more than a campaign of rape, kidnapping and murder. They wanted to crush Israel's security and launch a multi-front war that would destroy the Jewish state.
For a while, it seems that this worked. Israel has been sucked into a painful, unacceptable to part of international public opinion, war in Gaza. Areas in the north were evacuated due to attacks by Lebanese Hezbollah. Yemeni Houthis pushed the Israeli port of Eilat into bankruptcy through attacks on Red Sea shipping routes. Iran fired missiles and drones at Israeli cities.
All of this was seen by many Israelis as an existential challenge. But by exposing Israeli weaknesses, Sinwar eventually ended up liberating Israel's forces.
Fourteen months later, Hamas has been destroyed and its leaders killed, including Sinwar. Hezbollah has suffered severe defeats — and been forced to accept a ceasefire — under the pressure of explosions, airstrikes and the Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon. The Iranian missiles did not cause much damage to Israel, but the Israeli response destroyed Iran's defense capabilities and shamed the regime. Now, the "fall" of Syria, a cornerstone of Iran's regional strategy, came as an indirect result of Israeli strikes.
For years, support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia has supported Assad. But Russia has weakened and turned its attention to the war in Ukraine. Iran and Hezbollah have suffered severe defeats at the hands of Israel. This provided an opportunity for HTS to launch a decisive attack against the regime, yet another "collateral damage" of Sinnoir's genocidal dream.
The result: a real revolution in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Syria linked Iran to Hezbollah and was its oldest ally in the region. Assad's fall deprives Tehran of strategic depth and reach; it seriously complicates the task of restoring a badly damaged network of proxies.
Assad's departure is also a humiliation for Russia, which had claimed that the intervention that saved Assad in 2015 was a major victory over the West. By jeopardizing Russian bases on Syria's Mediterranean coast, it also threatens Moscow's ability to project power in Africa.
That's why Israel is a vital ally for the U.S.: Because its victories are critical defeats for America's enemies. And this revolution in the Middle East may not be over yet.
Israel and the US have an opportunity to put further pressure on Iran in the coming months. Tehran has lost its best air defense systems and the strategic security that Hezbollah and other proxies were supposed to provide. Now she will face a new U.S. president, Donald Trump, who will likely step up economic pressure — through sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to roll back its nuclear program, or potentially triggering the collapse of the regime. Tehran could still face an attack on its nuclear facilities if Israeli leaders decide it is the right time to exploit the advantage.
This does not mean that the Middle East is entering a bright, new era of peace. The collapse of the Assad regime could trigger a resurgence of the Islamic State, the emergence of a jihadist regime in Damascus, or a march toward chaos affecting the entire region.
The fate of Assad's remaining chemical weapons is uncertain, which is why the Israeli air force has launched a hunt. U.S.-Turkish relations could become extremely tense if the Turks seize the opportunity to attack Syrian Kurdish groups allied in some way with Washington. And although Iran is in dire straits, it has yet to play its last card.
The Houthis could step up their assault on freedom of navigation if they acquire anti-ship cruise missiles from Moscow. Iran could tighten its grip on Iraq through the Shiite militias it influences. It may also, if it feels trapped, pursue the development of nuclear weapons, confronting the new administration with the choice of backing down or starting a major Middle East war that Trump has pledged to avoid.
But for now, the regional balance of power is more favorable to the US, Israel and their allies than at any time in recent years. Sinwar is likely to go down in history as the architect of a murderous surprise attack that quickly backfired in highly counterproductive ways. It's not the legacy he pursued on October 7, 2023, but it's the one he deserves.
*Brands is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, co-author of "Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China," and a member of the U.S. Department of State's Foreign Affairs Council. He is a senior advisor at Macro Advisory Partners.
