Filenews 30 December 2024
A historian of the future may be struck by how dysfunctional the most powerful country on Earth has become in the last decade. Despite extraordinary technological advances and respectable economic growth, the well-being of most Americans is declining. Even many of the "winners" are deeply anxious about how they will be able to pass on success to their children. There is also an unsustainable public debt, with no visible prospect of a solution.
So while Donald Trump's election to the presidency came as a surprise to many, the forces on which he was based have been building since 2016. The current predicament of the US is not unprecedented. Complex human societies organized into states have existed for 5,000 years. For a while, they may experience periods of inner peace and order, but they inevitably enter times of great social upheaval and political disintegration. Think of the French and Russian Revolutions or the American Civil War.
Because; An analysis of hundreds of crises over the past thousands of years identifies a common cause: a situation of "elite overproduction." Simply put, when too many prospective members of the elite compete for a fixed number of positions of power. It's like a game of musical chairs, with the number of chairs remaining constant while the number of players increases. As the game progresses, it creates more and more angry losers. And some of them are turning into "anti-elites" – that is, willing to challenge the status quo.
Popular impoverishment is the second important component of a crisis. Together with elite overproduction, it creates an explosive mix as anti-elites tap into popular discontent in their attempt to overthrow the ruling class.
The American ruling class is a coalition of the top rich (the so-called 1%, until recently represented by the Republican Party) and the top holders of university and professional degrees (the top 10%, represented by the Democrats). Both parties have undergone rapid transformation over the past decade. This is especially true for Republicans, who are transforming themselves into a truly "revolutionary" party that supports radical right-wing populism, according to some, or a working-class party, according to others.
Anti-elite
This transition began with Trump's unexpected victory in 2016. Trump, of course, was not a revolutionary. He was a political businessman who channelled popular discontent, especially among white Americans without college degrees, to propel himself to power. Once in office, however, he tried to fulfil his campaign promises (quite unusual for an establishment politician). Not all of his initiatives were contrary to the interests of the ruling class, but he vehemently opposed the priorities of the economic elites, pursuing anti-immigration policies, rejecting traditional free-market orthodoxy in favour of industrial protectionism, and expressing skepticism about NATO.
In 2020, America's ruling class felt it suppressed the "revolution." The Democratic Party had controlled its own populist wing and had become the party of the entire ruling class – the 10% and the 1%. This realignment was marked by Kamala Harris' raising much more money than Trump in the last election cycle, as well as support for Harris from Republicans like Liz and Dick Cheney or neoconservatives like Bill Kristol. Meanwhile, Trump has had remarkable success in reshaping the Republican Party into a right-wing populist party.
It is important to understand that Trump is just the tip of the iceberg. What we saw in 2024 was a consolidation of a different anti-elite coalition around the Trump ticket. Some of them, like U.S. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, climbed the ranks of the Republicans. Other politicians, such as Robert Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, defected from the Democrats. Non-politicians of the new "anti-elite" include media executives such as Tucker Carlson, who was fired from Fox News but started a hugely successful independent show on X, or tycoon Elon Musk, who came under fire from the establishment for his furious pro-Trumpism. What united these counter-elites was that they were all blowing fury against the ruling class.
Two roads
The American ruling class is in a difficult position that has been repeated thousands of times in human history. Many ordinary Americans have withdrawn their support from ruling elites. According to Carlson, they have raised "a pulsating middle finger to America's ruling class."
Large groups of credible candidates, frustrated in their quest for positions of power, are breeding grounds for anti-elites who dream of overthrowing the existing regime. Most wealth holders are reluctant to sacrifice any personal advantage for the sake of maintaining the status quo. The technical term for this is "revolutionary situation". For the ruling classes, there are two ways out. One leads to their overthrow. The alternative is for the ruling elites to support reforms that will balance the social system, reversing trends of popular impoverishment and overproduction of elite candidates. It happened in America, about a century ago, with Fr. Roosevelt's New Deal.
Can it be done again? In the wake of the 2024 election, the answer becomes clearer. If Trump and his group of anti-elites implement what they preach, which seems most likely, then we are on a path of replacing elites instead of gradual reforms.
Performance – Editing: George D. Pavlopoulos
