Filenews 30 December 2024 - by Paul lddon
The Republic of Cyprus continues its military support with new arms purchases and its ultimate goal of joining NATO.
President Nikos Christodoulides expressed this intention in an interview with The Associated Press in late November 2024.
"Because we do not want the National Guard to miss such opportunities, we are in discussions with the US – and we thank them for their positive response – on how the Republic of Cyprus can make the best use of these opportunities, so that when everything is ready, the Republic of Cyprus will become a NATO member-state." told the agency.
In another interview in early December, Cypriot Defence Minister Vassilis Palmas underlined the need for Cyprus to upgrade its defence given its geopolitical position.
"The situation in the eastern Mediterranean, with its constantly changing geostrategic balances and competing interests, makes it even more imperative to strengthen our defense capabilities," he told the AP.
Meanwhile, Cyprus acquired at least two batteries of Barak MX anti-aircraft missiles and dozens of interceptor missiles from Israel – the financial part of the market was not disclosed. The Israeli system will replace Russian-made Tor-M2 anti-aircraft systems currently held by the Cyprus National Guard and is part of a wider effort to replace older Russian weaponry, acquired by Cyprus in the 1990s, with Western ones.
"This is a very important market. But what matters most is not the acquisition of anti-aircraft systems itself, but the steady improvement of ties with Israel, which can bring multidimensional benefits to the Republic of Cyprus," commented George Tzogopoulos, senior fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne.
President Christodoulides took office in early 2023 with a commitment to allocate at least 2% of GDP to defense spending, as foreseen for NATO member states.
"The Republic of Cyprus is indeed strengthening its defence. But it does it gradually," Tzogopoulos noted.
Citing data from the European Defence Agency, he noted that from 2018-23, Cyprus' total defence spending increased to €518 million. from €382 million, while defence investment more than doubled to €130 million from €62.2 million
"In my opinion, the Republic of Cyprus is trying to contribute to European defence initiatives and prove its geopolitical importance, as the EU is taking some small steps in the defence sector," Tzogopoulos added.
"At the same time, the strengthening of its ties with the US 'force' the Republic of Cyprus to westernize its armed forces by spending and investing more resources," he said. "Of course, the regional geopolitical environment contributes in this direction."
"Last summer, Hezbollah directly threatened the Republic of Cyprus, causing concern not only in Nicosia but also in Washington," Tzogopoulos recalled.
However, the chances of Cyprus joining NATO soon are still slim, given that Turkey will veto it. Turkey is the only country to recognize the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus", where it has about 35,000 troops.
"I don't see how the Republic of Cyprus could join NATO under the current circumstances. Turkey should give the green light and this will not happen without a solution to the Cyprus problem," Tzogopoulos said.
"The discussion may put some pressure on Turkey to abandon the idea of a two-state solution, but even so history has shown us how complex the solution of the Cyprus problem is after the Turkish invasion of '74," he added.
While Washington is interested in safeguarding and encouraging Nicosia's Western orientation, Tzogopoulos notes that this is happening "independently" of discussions on the Republic of Cyprus' accession to NATO. In this context, the United States and Cyprus may cooperate more closely on agreements, arms purchases and training.
"Nicosia is currently making a strategic calculation that has opportunities and risks. The opportunities are related to its closer ties with the West, constantly showing how useful it is to the United States and Israel," Tzogopoulos said. "But the risks are serious and concern the dissatisfaction of both Turkey and Russia and the alignment of the policy of these two countries at the expense of Nicosia's interests."
"Over time, the priority for the Republic of Cyprus has been the solution of the Cyprus problem – and not its involvement in regional and international competition," he stressed.
According to the analyst, Cyprus' main backer, Greece, missed an opportunity immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
"They could then have linked the possible accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO with the accession of the Republic of Cyprus," he said. "Under extreme circumstances, the results could have been better – at least limiting Turkey's influence."
Unsurprisingly, Turkey has spoken out against recent arms purchases from Nicosia. The Turkish Foreign Ministry called them a "mistake", warning that they could "start an arms race" on the divided island.
The speaker of the Turkish parliament argued that Cyprus will soon "see that the weapons it buys are useless". In the late 1990s, Turkey threatened to pre-emptively attack Nicosia when it bought S-300 long-range air defense systems from Russia, triggering a crisis that only defused when Greece agreed to receive the missiles. It seems unlikely that Turkey and Cyprus are at risk of a similar crisis today.
However, a resurgence of tension is a strong possibility.
"Turkey is deeply concerned about the new foreign policy orientation of the Republic of Cyprus, which includes closer ties with the US and Israel," Gamgopolus commented. "Nicosia's acquisition of Western weapons is indicative of the trend following the lifting of the US arms embargo on Cyprus."
The US imposed an arms embargo on Cyprus in 1987 in an attempt to prevent an arms race on the island.
That's why Cyprus turned to Russia for the S-300s in the 1990s. That is why Cyprus has been buying French weapons all these years, mainly Exocet anti-ship missiles. In 2020, the US decided to lift the embargo, paving the way for possible US arms sales to the Republic of Cyprus.
As Turkey strengthens its naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean under the doctrine of the "Blue Homeland", it considers Cyprus' cooperation with the West and the upgrading of its arsenal problematic.
"The Republic of Cyprus should carefully study the scenarios of the Turkish-American bazaar in the Eastern Mediterranean," Tzogopoulos said. "This haggling is expected to become more intense under the Trump administration."
Performance – editing: Michalis Papantonopoulos
