Filenews 5 September 2024 - by Chris Bryant
The election victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Thuringia on Sunday, the first electoral victory of a far-right party in regional elections in Germany since World War II, is a sign of a country whose confidence is at a low level.
To keep fringe parties at bay and remain a reliable partner for international allies, Germany desperately needs to rediscover its economic and political mojo. Otherwise, a troubled Germany could be a problem for Europe and the world.
Although populist groups on the left and right won more than 60 percent of the vote in the state of Thuringia and nearly half in Saxony, the other parties have ruled out participating in regional governments with the AfD, meaning it will probably not be able to implement its policies.
And if current polls are accurate, the AfD won't do as well in next year's federal election. Instead, the conservative Christian Democrats are expected to win about 30% of the vote in 2025 and thus the right to lead the next federal government. An early election before that is unlikely because the three coalition members have seen all their supporters pulled away.
This is reassuring, but only up to a point: A political firewall against the AfD would reinforce its voters' sense of being marginalized and ignored. Meanwhile, the opposition conservatives are now led by Friedrich Merz, whose views on immigration are tougher than those of Angela Merkel. (Merz has at least ruled out cooperation with the AfD, and has strongly advocated military support for Ukraine.)
Right now, Germans see problems everywhere they look, which makes them more easily attracted to the AfD and Buendnis Sahra Wagenknecht, a new leftist group that opposes immigration and wants to end sanctions against Russia.
The country's economy has been stagnating for two years and inflation is only just beginning to subside — violent crime has risen and Germany must support Ukraine's defense against a devastating Russian invasion.
Instead of offering reassurance, Germany's ever-battered coalition government has reinforced the impression that the country has gone off the rails. Reconciling the Free Democrats' anti-lending instincts with the Social Democrats' welfare commitments and the Greens' zeal to decarbonise is often a Sisyphean task.
Frustration is particularly acute in the former communist East, where loyalty to mainstream parties is less established, average wealth is lower, and the population is aging rapidly after many young people emigrated to the more prosperous West.
Germany has spent a decade allowing refugees from Syria and Afghanistan to take in, but now a large part of the population believes that this humanitarianism has gone too far. The murder of three Germans last month, allegedly carried out by a Syrian asylum seeker, has darkened the national mood – even moderates are now in favour of restricting immigration.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has rightly provided solid support to Ukraine, but concerns about the cost of funding its defense and supporting Ukrainian refugees are starting to take a toll among voters. Germany will meet NATO's target of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on the military this year for the first time in decades.
Some of the Germans' fears are well-founded and stem from dependencies that were not adequately addressed during Merkel's long tenure. Cheap Russian gas and seemingly insatiable Chinese demand for German cars and capital goods gave the country a false sense of security. The low national debt was partly a function of the failure to repair crumbling infrastructure. German companies have also spent a long time tinkering with internal combustion engines instead of embracing the industries of the future. The shrinking working-age population is also going to hold back the country's growth potential.
Other concerns are exaggerated or self-imposed: In general, Germany has also dealt with the loss of Russian gas in a dignified manner. While some energy-intensive businesses closed, the lights mostly remained on. A 49-point economic plan unveiled by the coalition in July also contained some decent ideas to boost investment, cut red tape and boost employment, including financial incentives for overtime and later retirement.
However, Germany's debt brake remains an obstacle to properly financing the country's needs and makes internal coalition disputes over limited financial resources inevitable. Unfortunately, a parliamentary consensus on this issue seems out of reach, because changing the Constitution requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority and opposition conservatives have no incentive to help.
Germany's European allies have benefited greatly from its willingness to absorb refugees and its financial support for Ukraine — it is the second-largest aid provider after the United States. Germany is also a top export destination for most EU member states.
But if the economy doesn't grow, disputes over how to distribute the economic pie are meant to grow, providing aid to extremists left and right. A stronger, more confident Germany is in everyone's interest – except, of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Performance – Editing: Stathis Ketitzian
