Filenews 9 August 2024 - by Marc Champion
In the Middle East, the belief has prevailed that no player involved in the current Gaza standoff has an interest in fomenting a wider war. The appointment of Hamas' military commander Yahya Sinwar to the group's top job is a reminder that this was never entirely true.
Sinwar occupies a post opened by the July 31 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas' political bureau, while on a visit to Tehran. This assassination was one of two that took place in a short period of time and violated the rules of engagement in Israel's perpetual hybrid conflict with Iran and its proxies. Both the Islamic Republic of Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah — whose de facto deputy leader was killed by Israeli drones in Beirut the day before — vowed retaliation.
Iran-Hezbollah retaliation
The consensus among Middle Eastern analysts is that both will seek a form of attack that is simultaneously strong enough to restore deterrence with Israel, but not bloody enough to drive the region into a broader war that will enlist U.S. military might. President Joe Biden's administration is working 24 hours a day to ensure de-escalation, after which it hopes to finally secure the ceasefire agreement in Gaza needed to more credibly de-escalate the conflict.
The architect of Hamas' atrocities on October 7
Sinwar, the architect of Hamas' Oct. 7 atrocities against Israel, has always been the group's ultimate decision-maker, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters after the appointment. With Gaza ceasefire talks in their final stages, Blinken said "we firmly believe they should cross the finish line very, very soon." Let's hope he's right – it's long been the logical choice for both Israelis and Palestinians. But if there is a quick fix, it is likely to be despite Sinwar's upgrade, not because of it.
The 61-year-old militant launched his terrorist attack against Israel 10 months ago knowing full well that this would provoke the reaction it provoked. He had been preparing for years, hypnotizing Israel into complacency with the message that he was no longer interested in violence, but was also building Hamas' military infrastructure and tunnels.
In messages to other Hamas leaders published by the Wall Street Journal in June, Sinwar described the tens of thousands of civilian deaths in Gaza as "necessary sacrifices" for the cause. Hamas, he said, now had the Israelis "exactly where we want them." He demanded that Palestinian negotiators agree only to a permanent ceasefire. In other words, he believed that Hamas was winning. The only thing that had not yet gone according to his plans was the expectation that Hezbollah and Iran would be involved in the conflict.
Expansion of the war?
Blinken and the general consensus are right that Iran does not want a full-blown war, which, as Tehran knows, would risk seriously degrading its precious asset, Hezbollah's missile strike capabilities, and inviting attacks on Iranian soil at a time when the regime is deeply unpopular at home. Neither Hezbollah wants an Israeli invasion, for similar reasons, nor the US, for different reasons. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also know that the cost of a new invasion of Lebanon would be daunting, given the vast arsenal Hezbollah has amassed since the IDF's last inconclusive invasion in 2006.
And yet, Hezbollah continues to carry out attacks on the border almost daily, saying it will not stop until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel, meanwhile, says its tolerance for having to keep tens of thousands of Israelis away from their homes because of the bombing is over. All of this looks like a vicious circle in which no one puts down their weapons until the war in Gaza is over and at a time when the two people needed for this to happen – Hamas' new political leader and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – do not want a ceasefire unless they capitulate to each other.
Diplomacy
Netanyahu toyed with the U.S.-led peace talks, only to sabotage them with new demands when they came close to success. Hamas, led by Sinwar, has done much the same, insisting that any Israeli withdrawal must be permanent while offering no withdrawal of its own. Even a newly elected Israeli prime minister, free from the constraints of Netanyahu's extremist cabinet, would struggle to agree to a permanent peace that would leave Hamas at the head of Gaza and Sinwar free.
Sinwar carefully studied his opponents while in an Israeli prison, according to a New York Times interview with the prison dentist who once saved his life — diagnosing a malignant brain tumour — and got to know him well. The story is telling, because Sinwar was released in 2011 as part of a prisoner swap of a single Israeli soldier for more than 1,000 Palestinians, despite the fact that he had blocked it in negotiations because it did not meet his maximalist demands. The Israelis solved this problem by placing it in isolation, paving the way for a deal with more pragmatic Hamas negotiators.
"Arsonist"
There is no way that Sinwar will go into isolation now that he is the leader of Hamas. Until he is killed or captured, he will hold the second of the two keys needed to unlock peace in Gaza and thus de-escalate tensions on Israel's border with Lebanon. The situation will remain unchanged even if Iran and Hezbollah manage to carry out their expected retaliation for Israel's killings in a way that avoids escalation, because Sinwar – like Netanyahu – is an "arsonist".
Performance – Editing: Stathis Ketitzian
