Filenews 9 August 2024 - by Paul Iddon
Russia has reportedly begun delivering radar and air defense equipment to the Islamic Republic of Iran amid the escalating Tehran-Tel Aviv standoff. The move could potentially reveal vulnerabilities and weaknesses in advanced Russian systems, given that Israel has already demonstrated how it can break through Russian air defenses in Iran.
Iranian officials have requested the equipment and Moscow has begun deliveries, the New York Times reported Monday. The report cited two unnamed Iranian officials, one of whom is a member of the Revolutionary Guards.
The report did not specify the exact type of equipment Russia is delivering. Iran is interested in acquiring the S-400 Triumf long-range air defense missile system. Tehran acquired advanced S-300 PMU-2 systems from Moscow in 2016 and also has Russian short- and medium-range Buk and Tor systems.
Iran is pressuring Russia to deliver the Su-35 Flanker fighter jets it ordered in 2021, according to senior Iranian sources cited by Reuters. Iran expects about 25 aircraft, while previous reports that they had been delivered are not valid.
Any delivery of advanced Russian military equipment to Iran could now prove dangerous for Moscow. Iran has vowed to attack Israel following the July 31 assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. An Iranian attack would likely trigger an Israeli response and potentially target advanced Iranian military hardware, including Russian-made systems.
The scenario is not hypothetical. When Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel in April, Tel Aviv responded by destroying the radar of an Iranian S-300 PMU-2 in the central Isfahan region, near the main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz.
(Incidentally, radars Russia is delivering could include a repaired or replaceable 30N6E2 "Tombstone" radar in place of the one destroyed in that Israeli strike.)
Israel was trained to strike the S-300s at least a decade before the strike on Isfahan. The Israeli Air Force trained in 2013 against the Greek S-300 PMU-1 in Crete, gaining valuable insights into its capabilities and potential vulnerabilities it could exploit in the future against a Syrian or Iranian system.
That same year, Israel did not allow the delivery of an S-300 battery from Russia to Damascus, suggesting that it would pre-emptively destroy any S-300s in Syria before it was even put into service.
Russia delivered an S-300 battery to Syria in 2018 under different circumstances, but not to the Syrian army. This meant that Syria was not allowed to use the system – which remained under the control of Russian military personnel – to counter hundreds of Israeli airstrikes in the country. The "Syrian" S-300 was launched once in 2022 and then summarily withdrawn from the country, proving that Syria practically neither owned nor controlled the air defense system.
Russia did not want Syria to use the S-300s, not only to avoid any conflict between Israel and Syria, but for fear that it would not achieve its objectives or might be destroyed by enemy attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed in 2019 that Saudi Arabia buy Russian S-300 or S-400 systems, as Iran and Turkey did, instead of Western systems, to defend its infrastructure, which had come under unprecedented drone attack.
All this before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Since then, attacks in Ukraine have destroyed many Russian high-tech systems, including the S-400 in Crimea. The destruction of the most sophisticated Russian equipment in Ukraine is one reason that has reduced the global arms market's interest in Moscow's military hardware from 2022 onwards.
The delivery of advanced weaponry to Iran amid a standoff with Israel could have negative consequences for Russia if there is a significant escalation. Putin does not want this because it could stop supplying Iranian drones and other equipment to the Russian military. The Russian president has warned Tehran to avoid targeting Israeli civilians, knowing that this would not increase the likelihood of escalation but could lead to all-out conflict.
While it is not known exactly what Russia is delivering to Iran, it is unlikely that these are equipment that substantially and directly upgrades its defenses – such as an S-400 or an Su-35 squadron. Nevertheless, even if it delivers advanced components for Iranian systems, Israel could destroy or sabotage them while they are still in storage. Such a move could both prevent Iran from modernizing its armed forces and highlight Israel's steadfast opposition to Moscow supplying weapons to Tehran.
All these factors indicate that Russia is once again risking the reputation of its defense industry, which has already been hit by Ukraine. In this case, its willingness to do so may indicate how dependent Moscow has been on Iranian goodwill for the past two and a half years.
