Filenews 19 June 2024 - by Gearoid Reidy
When it comes to North Korea, Western interest tends to waver: from approaching the tactical patience of the Barack Obama era to Donald Trump's barrage of summits.
U.S. and North Korea
These days, the spotlight is elsewhere. With the devastation in Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas drawing most of the political attention in the US, Pyongyang seems to be of so little concern to the average American that it is no longer even on the country's list of greatest enemies.
In an annual Gallup poll that asks respondents who America's biggest enemy is, just 4 percent answered North Korea this year, up from 51 percent in 2018. President Joe Biden's U.S. administration remains far more focused on Beijing than Pyongyang, and the missile launches that once spooked international markets are now practically indifferent.
North and South Korea
This could be one reason North Korea has resorted to flying balloons loaded with secretory bills over the border, apparently in response to activist groups in the south sending packages with leaflets and other information. Although the sight of North and South Korea exchanging manure and Korean pop music over the border makes good headlines, it is not likely to turn the global gaze to the very real dangers that exist on the peninsula.
Putin's visit to North Korea
But to better understand why North Korea shouldn't be ignored, look at what's taking place these days in the country. Russian President Vladimir Putin is on a two-day visit to North Korea until Wednesday, his first such visit in 24 years. Since Kim Jong Un's trip to Russia last September, Putin has been in North Korea as ties between the two strongmen become increasingly cordial.
Both countries have much to gain and little to lose from strengthening bilateral relations, and have already been subject to such severe sanctions that the U.S. and its allies have little leverage to punish them further. The two countries have an "inseparable comrade-in-arms relationship and a long-standing strategic relationship, and relations are steadily developing at the highest level," Kim told Putin in a message last week, according to North Korea's state-run Central News Agency.
The countries intend to sign an agreement on a strategic partnership, including on security and economic cooperation, Russian state news agency Tass quoted Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov as saying. Officials in Seoul are concerned about such a pact. Russia needs allies, and Kim has shown his willingness to help, as evidenced by North Korean weaponry found on Ukrainian battlefields. Both the U.S. and South Korea say Kim has already sent millions of artillery shells to Russia, which the Russians need to continue its assault on Ukraine. (North Korea denies this.)
For its part, North Korea can use Russia's presence on the UN Security Council to advance its goals of weakening sanctions by helping it bolster its arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles. This is already underway: In March, Russia used its veto in the Security Council to reject the renewal of the UN panel of experts that monitors sanctions on Pyongyang. Kim also needs Russian technology for his space program, following the failure to launch a spy satellite last month, while Russian oil will also find demand in a country in need of energy supplies.
South Korea and Japan
Under President Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea stands firmly against its neighboUr. But only a few years ago his predecessor, Moon Jae-in, tried to bring nations closer together. The situation could change again in the next elections in 2027. Japan, meanwhile, is reported by South Korean media that it held secret talks with representatives of the Kim regime in Mongolia last month. Time is ticking for any possible resolution to the issue of kidnappings of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s — as well as possibly the leadership of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, one reason why Tokyo may revive the idea of a bilateral summit.
How Pyongyang Can Use Moscow
As it has done many times before, Pyongyang will try to use these issues to get caught between the United States and its allies. Both diplomacy and putting harsher pressure on the man he called a "thug" failed to bring any progress for Biden. Between the Biden administration's distractions and Trump's possible return to the White House, North Korea has a window to bolster its influence. Meanwhile, Putin can help speed up efforts to circumvent sanctions.
Warning
This is a reason to welcome the news of a trilateral security pact between Japan, South Korea and the US, which will be ratified soon. All three countries have been distracted in the past, while Pyongyang remains focused on its goals. Let Putin's visit serve as a warning that geopolitical situations are changing.
