Filenews 18 April 2024 - by Marc Champion
If the approach of the West, and the US in particular, to Ukraine does not change very soon, the country risks being crushed at enormous cost – for Ukrainians, Europe and the US.
The difference in Israeli-Ukrainian support
No comparison could be more stark than the experiences this weekend in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, and Israel, as each region came under intense attack with Shahed missiles and drones.
Israel was left virtually untouched by a massive barrage of fire on Saturday, protected by its own air defense systems and the actions of US, UK, French and Jordanian military forces that helped shoot down many of the warheads launched by Iran before they reached Israeli airspace. For all the criticism that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rightly receives for the way he conducted the retaliatory war against Hamas in Gaza, this coordinated response was exactly as it was supposed to be carried out.
Such extensive and direct aid cannot simply be attributed to Israeli exceptionalism. Jordan's involvement, despite its strained relationship with Netanyahu and its deeply sympathetic population for the Palestinian cause, proves this. Jordan simply recognized, as did the other participants, that Iran should not be allowed to achieve its goal because that would carry risks far beyond Israel.
This is primarily because Iran has an aggressive, totalitarian and fanatically Islamist regime that is concerned with undermining and destabilizing the region around it. Second, if Israeli cities and lives were destroyed by a barrage of missiles and drones, this would have necessitated a swift and tough response, triggering a regional war that would skyrocket economic costs and jeopardize security around the world.
The same goes for Ukraine, which was almost abandoned when Russian missiles and drones struck earlier in the day. No one expected American and British pilots to take to the skies, but Ukraine's allies are now depriving it of the means to defend itself. As a result, Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million, is a city of 1.4 million. Just 32 kilometers from the Russian border, it was unable to repel the major air attack, making it uninhabitable and ready for conquest.
The main power and heating stations as well as apartment buildings were hit, killing at least seven people. The attack was just part of an accelerated series of bombardments against major Ukrainian cities still in Russian President Vladimir Putin's crosshairs, including so-called double strikes aimed first at killing civilians and then rescue workers arriving to help them.
Russia, like Iran, is an authoritarian state, captive to its own fanaticism as it tries to resurrect a lost imperial glory at the expense of its neighbors. Putin has proven vindictive. He has put his economy on a war footing and is convinced that he is in a culture war with the West. Anyone who believes that he will not continue to pursue his ambitions after a military success in Ukraine by turning his attention to Moldova, the Baltic states and the Balkans, while imposing dramatic changes in politics and security in Europe, has misjudged the situation.
Responsibilities
There are many responsibilities for this turn of events, but in order of blame, US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson, with the support of Donald Trump, deserves first place. The blockage of funding since October has played a huge role in the fact that Ukraine now has a five- or six-to-one disadvantage in artillery fire, due to a lack of ammunition, and has become increasingly exposed to missile attacks due to a lack of interception means that only the U.S. can provide. As a result, lives are lost.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán deserves a special mention in Europe, where he too has done everything he can to delay European Union aid to Ukraine and ensure Russia's victory, presenting his pro-Putin stance as an offer for peace. Less blatant, but also to blame for the inability to think and act strategically is German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has provided significant assistance to Ukraine over time but has also systematically delayed the transfer of key equipment.
Delay matters in war, because so much can change overnight. Like a central bank that sets monetary policy, decisions on arms supplies and recruitment must be made well in advance of when their impact on the front lines is needed. Here, too, the administrations of Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also bear responsibility. Biden and his advisers dripped out the types and quantities of weapons Ukraine needs in a way that it can survive but not end the war — even before Johnson blocked further aid. They are also pressuring Ukraine not to hit key Russian infrastructure, despite Russia attacking Ukrainian infrastructure from its territory.
Zelensky's failure has been to muster the political courage (no one can fault his personal bravery) needed to mobilize more troops when the decision was necessary last year. The result is that Ukraine is now facing a severe shortage of manpower at the front. The brigades are short on strength, unable to replace the dead and wounded or rest soldiers who have been at the front for two years under constant rain of Russian artillery fire.
The situation may still change
These bleak prospects can still be reversed. Johnson, after months of filibustering, promised to hold separate votes on aid to Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine as early as Friday. We'll see what safeguards are introduced as the package passed by the Senate in February breaks down. Kiev desperately needs all the EUR 60.6 billion. dollars that were in it, and more specifically the supplies of weapons and ammunition.
On Tuesday, the Rada, or Ukraine's parliament, finally sent a much-amended conscription bill for Zelensky to sign, the success of which will largely depend on whether potential recruits believe there will be weapons to use and ammunition to protect them. Despite not having a navy, Kiev's maritime drones have won a major battle against Russia's Black Sea fleet. The first F-16s will soon fly over Ukraine and the Czech Republic has organized an admirable campaign to secure 800,000 shells for Ukraine's artillery.
Two of the best Western analysts of the war in Ukraine, Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, and Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, recently returned from a trip to Ukraine with the following conclusions: They found the situation grim, but not yet catastrophic. The Russians have solved their manpower problems and are adapting, they said, but they are still losing three times as many personnel and far more equipment as Ukraine by making slow gains in the field, despite their advantages in troop numbers and firepower. To prevent a Russian advance on the front, Ukraine must restore manpower, build defenses and secure ammunition supplies.
"I think Ukraine can hold out if these things are addressed," Lee said after their trip, adding that the officers and politicians they spoke to were fully aware of their mission. At this point, they will have to define a winning strategy that no longer includes the unlikely goal of recovering all lost territory. "But again, that depends on making key decisions, and the sooner the better."
With the start of mobilization, the most important of these decisions will fall to Western leaders. Johnson, in particular, will bear heavy and personal responsibility for the consequences if Ukraine's allies fail or continue to procrastinate.
Performance – Editing: S. Ketidjian
