Filenews 7 January 2024 - by Chrysanthos Manoli
The Ministry of Energy, the Energy Regulatory Authority, the Transmission Operator and the Electricity Authority are trying to keep their fears about possible electricity deficit problems out of the news, but the concern is real, justified and perceived by a large part of the energy people.
Phileleftheros reports that electricity sufficiency was one of the issues discussed between Energy Minister George Papanastasiou and CERA's top management at a meeting last Wednesday. No statements or announcements were made, but there is unofficial information that, after all the authorities involved collect and evaluate the data on electricity production and consumption in 2024 but mainly in 2025, a broad meeting will be convened, probably in early February.
Despite some optimism observed in the state energy environment to cover energy consumption in 2024 with existing production units, conventional and green, no one can ensure this, as peak demand depends largely on weather conditions (e.g. a prolonged heat wave in summer will test the limits of the system). The production may hold unpleasant surprises in case of damages, which are no longer rare in Vasilikos.
If the gas comes
However, the major concern of the competent authorities concerns 2025, a year when the use of natural gas at the EAC station in Vasilikos or at the new plant being built next to the private PEC, owned by the Cyfield Group, is likely to finally begin, after many years of unsuccessful attempts. If the goal of completing the infrastructure is achieved (especially the gas transmission system from the Prometheus FSRU to the power plants, for which serious delays are recorded), all units of the Vasilikos plant will need to go through a few months of trials, on a rotational basis. During the trial period, the affected unit will not be able to contribute to meeting demand, which is quite important, since these are high-power units, especially during the summer period when demand skyrockets and there is no luxury of losing production.
Urgent aid
The Ministry of Energy and CERA agree that in order to ensure electricity sufficiency in 2025, conventional production must be urgently boosted. Any decisions need to be taken as soon as possible (probably already delayed) to allow time to add new units to the network.
The new station being built by PEC in Vasilikos (230 megawatts) will also have to go through trials for the use of natural gas and it is doubtful that it will be able to be exploited during the summer season of '25. On the other hand, by the summer of '25, EAC's 6th unit in Vasilikos (160 megawatts) will have been delivered for use, but it can only operate with the use of natural gas. Therefore, it cannot be used in 2024, even if it is delivered on time.
The solutions which, according to our information, will be discussed extensively in the near future are two:
– Acceleration of the licensing procedures for the installation by EAC of two small and flexible units, with a capacity of 40 megawatts each, at Dhekelia station. This solution seems to be generally favoured, as it ensures a significant increase in production in an exceptional circumstance, but it will also be used in the coming years, to replace the polluting steam boilers in Dhekelia, which operate in violation of the legislation, following a derogation given by the Commission. However, the question arises whether the tendering, awarding and execution procedures can be completed before the summer of '25, which is rather doubtful, unless exceptional and urgent procedures are chosen.
It should also be noted that objections to the installation of new conventional units by EAC in Dhekelia are expressed by private companies in the energy sector, which, however, for the time being do not seem to be adopted by either the Ministry of Energy or CERA.
– A second solution, which is considered more expensive and significantly more polluting (therefore doubly expensive, due to the cost of pollutants), is to rent small mobile units from abroad, as was done in 2011-12, after the Vasilikos station disaster.
