Filenews 15 December 2022
By David Hambling
According to reports, the US is finalizing the mission of Patriot batteries to Ukraine, which is increasingly being attacked by Russian drones and cruise missiles. UN estimates say 50% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has been destroyed and subsequent power outages affect millions of citizens. But is the Patriot the right missile to defend Ukraine?
The MIM-104 Patriot is the top long-range air defence system of the US military, capable of hitting supersonic targets at a distance of 160 km. and very high height. While earlier missiles could only hit aircraft, the Patriot was also able to intercept ballistic and cruise missiles and was deployed during the Gulf War in 1991 to protect U.S. forces from Iraqi Scud missiles. Since then the Patriot has been upgraded several times and now has an Active Electronic Scanning radar, with high resolution and 360 degree coverage.
However, while it is effective against aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, the Patriot does not perform as well against small drones. In 2017, Yemen's Houthi rebels began hitting the positions of Patriot batteries in Saudi Arabia with Iranian Qasef-type kamikaze-drones. These drones hit the Patriot's radar, with the aim of shutting it down for a significant period of time to carry out attacks with long-range missiles.
Opinions differ on whether this tactic was effective, but what is certain is that since then the Houthis have carried out a series of highly effective attacks with long-range drones of Iranian technology. For the most part the Houthis hit oil facilities and airports, killing people and causing huge fires.
Their biggest success was the hit on the Abqaiq refinery in 2019 – with drones and missiles – which resulted in a fire breaking out in the facilities and skyrocketing the price of oil worldwide.
A Western defence official told Reuters that Abqaiq was protected by Patriot missiles. It was never known if the Patriot radar "lost" the small drones flying at a low altitude or if other problems arose.
Today, Ukraine is under attack by small kamikaze drones sent to the Russians by Iran. Some of them we have seen in Yemen as well. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains that Moscow has received at least 2,400 Shahed-136s, which are usually fired in groups to ensure that some escape air defense. The Patriots, at a cost of €1 million, are the first to be able to do so. dollars (or more) per shot, it is not a practical solution to neutralize mass-produced drones that cost a few thousand dollars.
Ukraine looks set to receive a Patriot not as support in an emergency situation, but because of the filibustering so far. Kiev was calling for Patriot missiles even before the Russian invasion, when the main threat to its territory was Russian aircraft and missiles. At the time, U.S. officials ruled that it would take a long time to train Ukrainian crews in using the system.
In March, when the supply of the Patriot missiles was put back on the table, U.S. officials said American operators of the batteries would have to be installed in Ukraine, which was not possible. Now that the Ukrainians have proved that they are learning quickly, including through the use of the US HARM missile, the view that it is possible for Ukrainians to learn rapid lessons is gaining ground. Details of when the new air defence systems will be operational have not been provided. The best-case scenario says it will take months -- rather than weeks -- although the Ukrainians have surprised again and responded earlier than expected to the use of weapons systems, such as with the Neptune anti-ship missile.
The Patriots will not stem the Russian wave of attacks, and it may be too late to prevent even greater damage to the power grid. However, other systems – notably the interceptor drones now procured – may prove to be an effective counterweight to shahed-136's stormy attacks. Small, low-cost and flexible interceptors are designed to counter drones, and their production may be more massive compared to large hypersonic missiles. The rapid-firing anti-aircraft guns supplied to the Ukrainians from Germany prove to be extremely effective against enemy drones.
In the future, the Patriots will provide a useful advantage to the Ukrainians – as long as the ballistic missile threat persists. The most important benefit, however, is that the U.S. is now willing to deliver heavier weapons to Kiev than the Javelin and Stinger they had sent in the early stages of the invasion. Patriot missiles were on the long list of military hardware that the U.S. did not want to give Ukraine: such as F-16 fighters as well as tanks and long-range missiles. Patriots are a first sign that things are changing, and with the new year we may see even more significant arms deliveries.
Source: Forbes
