Filenews 13 November 2022
By Panikos Charalambous
From the outset, I declare an inability to fully understand the geopolitical and energy games in our region. At the same time, however, I wonder - not today but for some time now - whether we finally understand here in Cyprus truly our own role and whether in the end we will just be a pawn on the chessboard, without any real possibilities of self-will and decisions. Not only because of our size and Turkish aspirations, but mainly because of the greater geopolitical interests and strategies pursued in the region. And all this while developments are changing rapidly and the scenery is changing in a way that becomes more complex and more dangerous.
The scene today
Things today, in general, are as follows:
1. The first natural gas in the EEZ of Cyprus was detected in 2011 in the Aphrodite field. And while almost 12 years have passed since then, this remains beneath the seabed untapped.
2. In January 2020, at a solemn ceremony in Athens, an interstate agreement was signed between Greece, Cyprus and Israel for the creation of the 2,000 km EastMed natural gas pipeline. The aim was to transport natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean region to Europe via Greece and Italy. The original plans included Italy. but in the end it did not participate. Two years later, the obvious was admitted: that it was an economically unsustainable project.
To this end, I would remind you of the statement made by Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides last January. in which he noted that "the construction of the pipeline was in the air from the beginning."
3. Last July it was announced that the exploratory drilling at the Saturn target had been successfully completed. in block 6 of the Cypriot EEZ and that 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) natural gas reserves were discovered. However, confirmatory drilling will have to be carried out.
4. On 14 October last, the agreement for the commencement of the works of the EuroAsia Interconnector project was signed in Nicosia. It concerns the creation of a pipeline for the transport of electricity via a 1200 km long undersea cable. It will start from Israel, pass through Cyprus and end in Greece via Crete. In the first phase, the interconnection will take place between Cyprus and Crete. It is estimated to be ready and start operating within the first half of 2028. This is a very important project, since it will end the electrical isolation of our country for the first time in its history and will connect Europe with the Middle East. The project will be dual-flow, as it can transport electricity to and from Cyprus and between the associated regions/countries. In fact, according to what he stated on October 14, at the East Mediterranean Gas Forum - EMGF, President Anastasiades, Cyprus from 2027 will be a net exporter of electricity.
5. Grandiose plans for Cyprus to become a natural gas centre have been abandoned. The transfer of gas from the Cypriot EEZ to either Egypt or Israel, or to both countries, is now being considered. We have already officially declared our readiness to consider proposals to connect our natural gas fields with Israel, Egypt and Lebanon in order to export gas to Europe.
The Turkey factor
In all this, however, the Turkey factor must not be overlooked. President Erdoğan and those around him daily threaten to defend the "rights" of Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots in the Eastern Mediterranean. Already, in relation to EastMed, They argued that the pipeline will pass through a "Turkish EEZ" and indicated to Greece and Israel that they need its permission. At the same time, Ankara is preparing exploration and drilling in blocks south of Cyprus located in the Cypriot EEZ, as it challenges the right of the Republic of Cyprus to define economic zones in such a wide range. This is the same policy it pursues towards the Greek islands. Hence the signing of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.
U.S. support
The United States has all this time supported and continues to support the efforts for the energy promotion of the Eastern Mediterranean and the utilization of natural gas by Europe, for its greatest possible independence from Russia. In this context, they supported the actions of the Republic of Cyprus for the establishment of economic zones to the south and east, despite Turkey's reactions and the failure to resolve the Cyprus problem. They had hoped, of course, that the discovery of natural gas would act as a catalyst in efforts to resolve the Cyprus problem, but the shipwreck at Crans Montana in 2017 belied their expectations once again. However, they continue to support energy initiatives in the region. The Ukrainian crisis has further highlighted the strategic goal of US policy for a Europe without dependencies on Russia.
USA, Turkey, Eastern Mediterranean
In the frame we should also put Ankara's relations with the United States. In recent years, the US has found itself faced with a Turkey with plans that are not in line with its own and an Erdoğan who seeks a Turkey that is stronger geopolitically and with a role greater than what they have in mind in Washington. This, of course, goes against the role of another important US partner in the region, Israel. Hence Ankara-Tel Aviv relations are at their worst level in decades.
I personally believe that the US energy plans in the region, without the inclusion of Turkey, wanted to send a message to Ankara that things can move forward without it. Although they would prefer the exact opposite to be the case.
Turkey, however, did not stand idly by. While its relations with Russia reached rock bottom in November 2015, due to the collapse of a Russian bomber by a Turkish F-16, today, a few years later, Moscow and Ankara are behaving like best friends. Turkey, among other things, proceeded to purchase the Russian S400 missiles against US suggestions, made itself a major player in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, avoiding applying Western sanctions against Russia, and recently agreed to become an energy hub for Russian gas. With her moves, she declares to everyone that she is present, that she should not be underestimated and that she cannot be excluded from energy developments in the region.
The riddle Libya and the pipelines
Since 2019, Libya has also entered the canvas of energy - geopolitical developments in the region, with the Turkish-Libyan memorandum. A memorandum that was denounced from the outset as illegal, with the US underlining that it has no substance. Recently, however, a new development has been recorded which, if anything, raises questions as to whether Libya will abandon its fervent embrace with Ankara. The country's state-owned oil company, NOC, revealed that the construction of a new pipeline that will transport natural gas from Libya to Greece and another (second) one that will transport natural gas to Egypt is being considered.
The U.S. was quick to support Libya's plans, adding that it supports projects that promote the energy interconnection of the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa with Europe.
- It goes without saying that many other things could be mentioned, but space does not allow it. I will come back to the topic in my next article.
*Journalist
