Filenews 12 June 2022 - by Kostas Venizelou
Erdogan is constantly sending ultimatums to Athens and Nicosia with warning shots aimed at triggering the already "flammable climate". For the first time in the Greek capital, even those who usually downplayed Turkish movements and machinations, consider that it is not excluded that there will be a "hot incident" in the Aegean or a new action to impose new faits accomplis in Cyprus during the summer. This, of course, will also depend on the deterrent moves that will take place on the Greek side.
It is clear that Erdogan has now defined the framework for the moves and now it remains how far he wants and how far he can go. From Smyrna and addressing primarily Greece, he said that "I'm not kidding, I'm talking seriously. This nation is determined and when it says something it means it." With this warning he wanted to take another step towards the realization of his threats, which in recent times have been upgraded qualitatively. He wanted to convince that he was not bluffing.
It is now clear from what we are witnessing both in the public sphere and behind the scenes that the intentions of the occupying Turkey are now clear. He has shaped the next steps and is moving on.
First, he closed all channels of communication with Athens. He ended contacts at various levels while Erdogan said he would not talk to the Greek Prime Minister again! The lack of communication complicates the situation and it is obvious that even in the event of an "accident", there will be no possibility of understanding. The phone will be... Broken.
Secondly, from the timeless questioning of the continental shelf of the Greek islands, it now challenges their sovereign rights in the territory. He denies that they are Greek islands. The Turkish opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, urged him to go ahead and seize islands, saying that he would support him, is also recalled.
Thirdly, it also preserves the issue of the Muslim minority. It now refers to the "oppression of the Turkish minority in Thrace, Kos and Rhodes". He is looking for an opportunity to intervene. As it did in Cyprus in 1974, but also recently Russia in Ukraine.
In relation to Cyprus, although Ankara treats Hellenism as one, Erdogan announced a move and reiterated a policy. He described both after the exercise in Izmir
First, it will continue its illegal activities in the Cyprus EEZ. It is expected that in July the new drilling rig, recently acquired by the occupying power, will be sent for drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean. The works will be carried out in parallel with those of the companies licensed by the Republic of Cyprus.
Secondly, as far as the Cyprus issue is concerned, it insists on a two-state solution, because "the Greek Cypriot side leaves it no other choice". This line is put forward in order not to proceed with any new effort.
⦁ It is clear that Erdogan, with a vision of neo-Ottoman Turkey, is moving in the theory of "living space", of expansionist wars. This view of things alludes to the Nazis, to Hitler ("Lebensraum"). A theory, which was updated by Erdogan's erstwhile associate, whom he dethroned, Ahmet Davutoglu. Ankara insists it is "suffocating" and that Greece and Cyprus have more space than they deserve.
Erdogan said what he would do. He usually does what he says. The aim is for Athens and Nicosia to formulate deterrence mechanisms and policies. It is, as political observers note, the only way for the leader of the occupying power not to carry out his threats. If Turkey realises that its moves are being viewed with fear, then it will move on. If he realises that there is a determination to deal with them, then he will obviously not move on. In addition to strategic planning, Turkish President puts the 2023 elections in the equation. An episode, which will cause him a cost, will not serve him. Unless, threatening Greece, it moves towards the weak link, Cyprus. And in Cyprus what it can do is faits accomplis on land and sea. It is obvious that no one can dispute a move to annex the occupied territories to Turkey.
"Our proposal remains open..." referring to the MOUs
Nicosia, while saying that the Turkish side instantly rejected the MOHs and deconstructed them, at the same time hastens to point out that "our proposal remains open". In a briefing note of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yiannakis Kasoulides, to the diplomatic staff (Central Service and the Diplomatic Missions), dated June 6, 2022, the head of Cypriot diplomacy acknowledges that in Famagusta the occupying regime "is acting towards the imposition and consolidation of new faits accomplis, the reversal of which becomes extremely difficult over time". The Ministry of Foreign Affairs refers to the turkish side's rejection of Nicosia's proposal for a MOU.
Noting that President Anastasiades sent a letter to the occupying leader, Ersin Tatar, on May 20th, he says that "unfortunately, the sincere efforts and bona fide proposals of the President of the Republic of Cyprus were instantly and without discussion opposed by their rejection by the Turkish Communist Party, who with public statements deconstructed the content of the letter, stressing at the same time that they are working on new proposals for cooperation between the two states (sic)". In the briefing note, Yiannakis Kasoulides says that the rejection of the MOUs was accompanied by the opening of part of the coastal front of the enclosed area of Famagusta.
At the same time, Mr. Kasoulides stresses that "despite our strong disappointment at the rejection of the CBMs by the Turkish Cypriots, our side will continue to make sincere efforts to create mobility and conditions for the resumption of negotiations, something that should be made clear to our immediate interlocutors. The sincerity of our intentions was and remains unchanged and is not open to misinterpretations or other malicious conclusions and/or political expediency. Our proposal remains open..." The note refers to the recent military exercise , "Agapenor", which took place during the period 29 May-2 June, within the framework of the cooperation between Cyprus and Israel. As we are informed, Nicosia has received démarches from a neighbouring country about what has come to light and had been leaked from the Israeli side about the scenario of the exercise. That is why he hastens to mention that "despite the clear defensive aims of the exercise, it was unfortunately left to be understood in the international press that it focused on simulated actions against Iran and Hezbollah, which in no way corresponds to the real purpose of the exercise."
