Filenews 13 May 2022
Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine failed on many fronts, but one of the most serious consequences is Finland's - almost certain now - accession to NATO.
The Nordic nation is expected to announce its intention to join NATO next Sunday, when the Foreign Affairs Committee will also have drafted a response to the government's security report - which includes the option of joining the alliance. The Finnish Parliament will then hold an extraordinary debate on whether to adopt the recommendations of the security report.
At this point it is very likely that NATO will invite the country to talk about joining the alliance and - as the Alliance's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Thursday - it is widely believed that this will happen very quickly, as Finland already meets most of the criteria and it is unlikely that any of the NATO members will oppose its accession.
Many recent opinion polls have shown that at least 60% of Finns are in favour of joining NATO, marking a huge jump from the previous high of around 30% in previous years.
If this happens, as expected, the country of six million inhabitants will have redesigned the European Security Charter in a way that was previously considered inconceivable, and could have huge consequences for Russia.
How Putin will react
But how could Russia respond?
Military movements. For now, Putin is busy with the front in Ukraine, so it is estimated that he is unlikely to make any sudden moves towards Finland.
Russian troops near the 1300 km common border have been rearranged south. However, over time, it is likely to move troops and missiles closer to the Finnish border and carry out aggressive air and naval patrols.
Hybrid warfare. Cyberattacks and cyber espionage have been going on for some time, targeting most European states. These may now be aimed specifically at Finland and Sweden if they join NATO, accompanied by the usual official denials of guilt.
Overthrow. Vladimir Putin likes to "play" strategically rather than resorting to tacticalism, and he may well decide that the historical neutrality of these two Scandinavian countries means that any decision to join NATO can be overturned.
Over time, that is, he may choose to try to shape Finnish public opinion against NATO with the help of propaganda and disinformation.
In any case, however, according to the BBC, as much as the war in Ukraine eventually led to the opposite of the desired result for Putin- which was to halt NATO's expansion to the east- the development with Finland reinforces his rhetoric, which even includes the use of nuclear weapons. The West ignores a great world power like Russia and threatens it by bringing more and more to its borders the NATO alliance.
