Filenews 28 April 2022
By Loren Thompson
Two months ago, analysts in the West were amazed to see the resurgence of Russian expansionism (or even revanchism) with Vladimir Putin setting the tone for an attack on Ukraine.
Eight weeks later, the scene has changed. Moscow's plan for a lightning-fast occupation of Ukrainian territory has collapsed and has been succeeded by an exterminating war of attrition with its deadlocks.
Those of us who considered Putin smart enough to avoid a military operation were wrong – even though our predictions of the difficulties Russia would face in invading the neighbouring country were largely verified.
So the time has come to re-evaluate the situation in which Putin's Russia finds itself and examine whether the country has reborn or is in an advanced stage of disintegration — that kind of disintegration that makes its leadership attack with the vehemence that Lenin estimated that capitalism would attack just before it collapsed.
In short, the Russian invasion of Ukraine may mark Putin's swan song, as reality "drowns" the ambitions of an isolated dictator.
If we stop treating Russia as an 'almost equal' competitor and look closely at the conditions prevailing in that country, we will see a weak and corrupt state that is not reminiscent of a superpower except in terms of its nuclear arsenal that it carries from its Soviet past.
Let us look at five indications that the war in Ukraine may not be another chapter in Putin's hegemony, but the last.
The failures of the Russian army
The fiasco of the Russian army in Ukraine has disproved the impression that it is equivalent to the American one. Soldiers are poorly trained and timid. Their information is incomplete. Their equipment is vulnerable and poorly maintained. Their leaders did not show flexibility to adapt to the conditions they encountered.
It seems that the corruption that permeates Russian society has also infected its army, damaging its principles and morale. This kind of rot is common in authoritarian states where loyalty counts more than initiative and disagreement is discouraged. Thus, a culture of mediocrity is cultivated in the ranks of the military.
The Russian economy had problems even before the sanctions
Russia's economy performed well in the early years of the Putin administration as it recovered from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Recently, however, it began to falter. Since Putin took office again in 2012, Russia has been growing at an average rate of 1.35% per year, stagnating in the middle-income countries category.
Its exports are focused on fossil fuels, while the rest of the advanced planet is turning to renewable energy. Despite efforts to strengthen the domestic technology industry, Russia is not competitive in the industry, with the exception of aerospace, and is forced to import many products, such as microchips. In terms of GDP per capita, Russia is only 55th in the world rankings, based on purchasing power parity, and is expected to slide further due to the economic sanctions imposed on it.
Demographic problem
Worse than GDP per capita, too, is life expectancy in Russia. The CIA's World Factbook ranks it 156th out of 226 countries with an average of 72.4 years (just below Moldova). Most industrialized countries, including the US, have an average life expectancy of 80 to 85 years.
Russia's population is shrinking in part due to the low fertility rate: 1.8 children per woman – well below the level of 2.1 needed to stabilize the population. Many European countries have lower fertility rates than Russia, however most are more developed. Russia – like the US – has taken advantage of immigration to keep its population stable, but the migration wave is now receding as economic opportunities in the country dwindle.
The new generation has become estranged and is increasingly migrating
Vladimir Putin is an "old type" of man. He does not surf the internet and does not have a smartphone. Therefore he has no point of contact with the younger generations, who spend much of their lives on social media. Young people have not participated strongly in the protests against the war in Ukraine, while the state is attempting to suppress those voices that disagree.
At the same time, more and more Russians are fleeing the country, especially after Putin's invasion of Ukraine. According to Deutsche Welle, hundreds of thousands of Russians have emigrated since the beginning of the war, "to the greatest exodus since the October Revolution." Immigrants come mainly from academic and technological circles, as well as other fields of knowledge, which means that a large brain drain is underway. Many of them are young.
Russia's clientelistic relations with other states
Moscow is pursuing colonial tactics for its security. It maintains a menagerie of client states that either once belonged to the Soviet Union or are now run by authoritarian regimes such as Cuba and Syria. All of these relations are costly for the Kremlin, which is trying to support the controversial country leaders.
For example, just before the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow sent troops to Kazakhstan to help the local government suppress the protests. Kazakhstan has huge rates of corruption and a long tradition of electoral fraud. The same goes for Belarus, which Russia supports in order to keep Alexander Lukashenko in power. Whatever the benefits of these bilateral relations, it is certain that they contribute little or nothing to the Russian economy.
Moreover, such "alliances" have nothing to do with NATO or similar organisations, where countries participate with free will and their leaders are elected.
The belief that Russia is "fighting" the US at any level – except for the nuclear arsenal – has little to do with reality. Even if one does not take into account the rumours of Putin's deteriorating health, it is hard to believe that the flimsy edifice created by the Russian president will continue to exist for much longer.
And in this, the war in Ukraine cannot help either.
Source: Forbes
