Filenews 10 March 2022
The heads of diplomacy of Russia and Ukraine will have their first face-to-face meeting in Turkey today since the outbreak of war on 24 February, while bombings in many Ukrainian cities continue.
Sergey Lavrov and Dmitro Kuleba will be welcomed as host by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavuşoğlu in Antalya (south), a tourist resort preferred by many Russian tourists.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has multiplied mediation efforts since the outbreak of the crisis, yesterday assured that Turkey "can talk to both Ukraine and Russia." "We are working to prevent this crisis from turning into a tragedy," he added.
The Turkish president will talk to his US counterpart Joe Biden around 17:00 (Greek time), the White House announced.
New ceasefire
Ukraine and Russia agreed on Wednesday to declare a twelve-hour ceasefire again on a series of so-called humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians.
Mr. Kuleba assured yesterday via Facebook that he will do everything in his power to make the talks "as effective as possible", noting however that his expectations are "limited".
"I do not have high hopes, but we will do everything to get the maximum," he said, warning that "everything will depend on the instructions Lavrov received before the talks."
The atmosphere may be very tense. The Ukrainian foreign minister also recently called his Russian counterpart "modern Ribbentrop", speaking to CNN, referring to the minister of Hitler's regime during World War II.
Mr Lavrov will make his first trip to Antalya since the outbreak of war, as Moscow suffers from a barrage of Western sanctions and looks increasingly isolated. It is expected to arrive in the Turkish seaside town in the afternoon.
The two ministers will also be met later today by the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ahead of talks aimed at "making progress on the urgent issue of security" of the Ukrainian nuclear facilities, Rafael Grossi informed via Twitter.
What we expect from the discussions
Turkey, a NATO member country, is considered an ally of Ukraine, and has also supplied it with armed unmanned drones (UAVs). While maintaining relations with Russia, from where it attracts many tourists and from where it procures grain and energy.
Ahead of the phone call with Joe Biden, Mr. Erdogan spoke Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin to call for a ceasefire.
The talks in Antalya come after Russia saw "progress" yesterday in its talks with Ukraine on the border with Belarus, according to the Russian diplomacy spokeswoman.
Maria Zakharova also reiterated that Moscow is not seeking to "overthrow the government" of Ukraine.
Several analysts, however, have reservations, amid the war that has already turned more than two million Ukrainians into refugees.
"Any effort can help, but I don't think we should expect any immediate success" in the negotiations between Sergei Lavrov and Dmitro Kuleba, says Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East programme at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
"To reach an agreement, the two parties will need to make painful compromises," warns Burke Essen of the German Institute for International Relations and Security.
Mr. Erdogan may boast that he was able to organise this meeting "on neutral ground," notes Soner Kagaptay, a Washington institute researcher, though he confesses that he would be "truly surprised" if any agreement were reached in Antalya.
He recalled that other leaders had taken initiatives to resolve the crisis, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, without the slightest tangible result for the time being.
Since the outbreak of the crisis, Ankara has maintained very delicate balances between the warring parties and has managed to keep channels of communication open.
"We are not abandoning either Kiev or Moscow" and we are not "backtracking on Turkey's interests", Mr Erdogan summed up in the early days of the war, while denouncing Russia's "unacceptable" invasion of Ukraine.
However, it has not announced, like Western countries, sanctions on Russia, while keeping air and sea routes open.
"This active neutrality has allowed Turkey to be at the centre of the diplomatic game," Burk Essen estimates. Whatever the results of the meeting, it is a "major diplomatic success" of the Turkish government, whose relations with the West have gone through many storms in recent years, according to the German analyst.
Source: ANA - MPA
