Filenews 16 March 2022 - by Marilena Panagi
During 10% of the days of the pandemic in Cyprus, 25.5% of the deaths of the two years of coronavirus were recorded on the island. In the first 76 days of 2022 (from January 1st until yesterday that is), there were 231 deaths out of a total of 904 that had occurred during the 757 total days of the pandemic in our country.
"Following the evolution of the pandemic, we must learn to "read" correctly the numbers with which we are bombarded every day so as not to adapt our behaviour to simple "slogans" or to findings that probably lead us to wrong conclusions," stressed the head of the Advisory Scientific Committee on the pandemic, Konstantinos Tsioutis, speaking to "F", claiming that "now, we are not yet going through a transitional period for the pandemic in the sense that the virus is tending to become endemic, but now, we are going through a transitional period, in the sense that we need to readjust everything in order to be able to adapt to the circumstances imposed on our lives by the pandemic and to be able to continue safely without being limited."
"We see that although the 'Omikron' mutation in general gives milder symptoms and fewer hospitalizations, but on the other hand, unfortunately, we see that with this mutation, people who do not have the necessary immunity, still face the same risk, while the number of deaths has not decreased at all and the real effects will be seen in the final account. Epidemiological indicators of deaths, such as mortality, may be low or decreasing, but we cannot ignore the daily deaths we record."
According to the official data of the Ministry of Health, of the 229 deaths of 2022, for which there was a data analysis until yesterday, 35 concerned people who had received all 3 doses of the vaccine and of these 15, 65%, were people over 80 years of age. 137 were people with no history of vaccination of which, 134, 60%, were people over the age of 50. The 104 were elders over the age of 70. 41 people were partially vaccinated, (with a dose of vaccine) and 9 had received both doses.
Overall for 2022, 79.45% of deaths involved people without a history of vaccination, 27.4% people partially vaccinated, 15.2% people who had received two doses of vaccine and 7.8% people who had received the third dose. This, if read in reverse, shows us that 20% of the deaths involved people with a history of vaccination.
"Omikron" mutation and re-infections
During this time, Mr. Tsioutis said, "we need to understand our data correctly. We have a mutation very contagious. We have huge daily numbers of cases for the population of Cyprus. We are in a boom that began in November and just in the last two months the index has been going up and down without us being able to say that it is stabilising. The ratio of cases to hospitalizations has changed and this is due to pre-existing immunity, because we have on the one hand people who have been vaccinated, most of the population, and on the other we have people who have been ill. Although we know that immunity is generally deductible, we cannot know for sure when the protective immunity against severe disease subsides."
The "Omikron" mutation, "we see that it is transmitted both to people who have previously passed the coronavirus and to vaccinated people. It does not cause severe symptoms in the youngest but is still fatal for the elderly and vulnerable and is still dangerous for people 50 years and older."
Indicative of this "and the large number of re-infections observed in recent times without giving us a similar number of hospitalizations. Suffice it to say that last week from the epidemiological surveillance unit, a total of 2,480 cases of people who were infected for the second time were recorded, with their number constituting one-third of the total number of cases of that week (17,111)."
According to official data, the highest rate of re-infections was recorded in the Limassol district (41.90%), with Nicosia following with 27.89%. The median age of people infected for at least the second time was 26 years while the interval between the first and second infections was on average 247 days.
"In order to properly understand the situation," said the head of the IBS, "perhaps we should divide the population into three categories: The younger ones who are not at risk, but have never been at risk, the vulnerable and the elderly who have always been at risk, and the people admitted for hospitalization in wards and ICU. These three 'categories' of the population are of great importance for public health and the health system, but they need different analysis and different treatment."
Unfortunately, he added, "the mentalities and impressions of the first category have prevailed, which is the largest percentage of our population and with the lowest chances of having severe symptoms, but, at the same time, they represent the largest percentage of those who get stuck and transmit."
On the other hand, "we have the vulnerable people of our population, who are not few, who are part of our society and our daily lives and, if they get stuck, they are more likely to have severe symptoms and end up in a hospital".
Finally, "we have the people who end up in the hospital, who, in proportion to the population, may be the fewest, but they are the ones who are most burdened and are led to hospitalization, to an ICU or even to death. Therefore, we must recognize these particularities of our society, approach them in a targeted manner, in order to ensure that the measures and practices applied, the preparedness of the health system, but also the communication, reach everyone and each of these groups implements the necessary measures (individually and socially), so that we can learn to live with the virus, but above all, do it safely. So this is the essence of the readjustment and not the immediate and abrupt return to the pre-pandemic situation."
Increase in positivity rate
The positivity rate, i.e. the number of cases detected in relation to the number of tests carried out, showed an increase last week in all age groups. For older people, the increase in this percentage was also significant. In detail, and according to the data of the epidemiological surveillance unit, in the week of March 5-11, the positivity rate in the 60-64 age group increased from 1.43% in the week that preceded it to 3.54%. In the 65-70 age group, from 2.08% it increased to 3.13%, in the ages of 70-75 years from 2.09% it reached 3.26%, in the 76-80 age group from 2.18% it reached 3.59%, in the 80-84 year olds from 3.11% it rose to 3.87% and in the over-85s the positivity rate increased from 2.27% in the week before to 3.86%. The overall positivity rate last week had risen from 1.71% to 2.74%.
Four times the number of intubated
"The number of hospitalized in recent times must also be 'read' correctly," said the spokesman of the CySEC, Charalambos Charilaou. "In our hospitals in addition to the 100-110 coronavirus patients hospitalized, we have another 20-22 who are, in fact, intubated in intensive care units. These people were admitted to hospitals when they contracted the virus. Due to the severity of their condition, which Covid-19 caused they were intubated and are in the ICU and at the moment it must be said that the number of these people is almost four times the number of intubated patients with 'active' coronavirus, and we cannot overlook that."
Concluding, Mr. Harilaou stressed that "we should not overlook the number of deaths we have either and this number should keep us on our toes, because it shows us that it is imperative that we continue to be careful. The elderly, more the unvaccinated but also our vaccinated elderly and the rest of the vulnerable are still at risk."
According to the official data of the CySEC, in recent days, the average age of people in hospitalization is 70 years with an average of 55% being people without a history of vaccination (i.e. 45% have a vaccination history).
The increase in cases in the last week is troubling, as Mr. Harilaou mentioned, the CySEC, since it usually implies an increase in the number of hospitalized patients. "If we will see an increase this time," he said, "we will see it in the next twenty-four hours because always in hospitals the rise begins to occur within a week, ten days after the start of each outbreak. We hope that the 'Omikron' mutation will keep the numbers down, but we have to prepare ourselves and we do our calculations on the basis of the positivity rate in society."
