Filenews 13 March 2022 - by Panicos Panayiotou, New York
It may only take a spark to light a huge fire. And when propaganda overshadows the truth, it is easy for a mistake or a provocation to bring about a more general conflict with uncontrollable proportions. At the heart of analyses of think tanks and veteran diplomats and military in the United States has been, in recent days, the "visible possibility" of a "better-case scenario" for a World (conventional) War III and for a "worst-case scenario" a nuclear war that will completely destroy the planet.
The dramatic events taking place in Ukraine and the multi-layered knock-on effects of the Russian invasion on a military, political and economic level are leading the whole world into uncharted waters. Many recognise that there is a serious risk that the US and its NATO allies will be "dragged" into war at any time as a result of various scenarios.
According to experts who cited information from military sources, since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, at least four specific cases have been recorded in which there was a real threat to world peace and security. If a ceasefire is not implemented as soon as possible and if no agreement is reached, it is estimated that the reactions and consequences for crimes against humanity will increasingly be strengthened with thousands of innocent victims, while at the same time reinforcing the likelihood of decisions being taken or incidents that would contribute to the expansion of the war outside Ukraine.
Based on the views expressed in several analyses, as long as Vladimir Putin realizes that the resistance of the Ukrainians, the unprecedented sanctions against Russia and the losses to Russian forces have a huge cost for his country and for him personally (regardless of the outcome on the ground and whether it will flatten entire cities and towns), it is predicted that it will become more and more aggressive, unpredictable and destructive. The only glimmer of hope that many see is the prospect of whether, at some point, the Russian president is "pressured" by the events or by other factors (e.g. internal front) for "compromise" but without appearing to be the "loser".
On the contrary, as almost everyone in the US appreciates, because it will never admit defeat or error, in order to proceed with any agreement it would have to be interpreted and presented as its own victory and that the Russian "military operation" in Ukraine would not take place if the Ukrainian leadership and the West accepted from the beginning what they (or some of them) might accept, through the drama of war. But some analysts claim that Putin had set out to destroy Ukraine and especially Kiev (just like chechnya's capital, Grozny), to dismantle it economically and militarily and then make it completely dependent on Russia. And, as it is argued, so far, it seems to have failed on another level and with other ramifications, because it has managed to unite the majority of the international community against Russia, to suffer unprecedented sanctions, to "resurrect" NATO and to lead Europe into a rapid period of rearmament (the most remarkable development being the Berlin decision).
"World War III has never been closer," according to the "Washington Post," noting that so far, the Biden administration and Western powers have made "extremely careful manoeuvres" to avoid direct conflict with Russia and President Putin, the man who controls the world's largest nuclear arsenal and who has shown no qualms about using nuclear weapons. Ukraine's Western allies are supplying weapons and other material, but have ruled out the idea of imposing a no-fly zone. EU countries provide air defence systems, but have refused Ukraine's request for fighter jets. No country has offered to send troops, except for too many people of mainly Ukrainian origin, men and women, from the USA and European countries who are going to Ukraine to fight against the Russian invaders, defending the country's freedom and territorial integrity.
Foreign Affairs magazine reported that for obvious reasons, much of the concern about escalation has been focused on the nuclear issue. Putin's announcement that Russian strategic nuclear forces would be put on higher alert is estimated to be a clear attempt to deter direct military action by the West, raising the stakes of a nuclear attack. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sent a "warning message" to the West, arguing that if there is a third world war, it will be fought with nuclear weapons.
Outside Ukraine
Although the United Nations and the leaderships of most countries are now taking nuclear escalation seriously, because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and indirect threats of nuclear use, but also because of the possibility of an accident or a provocation, it is believed that the great dangers of a conventional war between NATO and Russia should not be excluded. Low-level conventional conflicts between nuclear powers have occurred in the past, such as between China - Soviet Union in the 1960s and India - Pakistan in 1999.
If the war in Ukraine, for as long as it lasts and in whatever form it develops, is not confined within the country's borders and at some point something happens in a NATO member country, then it is considered by almost all experts that The Third World War will have begun.
