Filenews 16 January 2022 - by Kostas Venizelos
As time runs towards Turkey's 2023 elections, Erdogan will become more aggressive, mainly towards Greece and Cyprus, foreign diplomats who are monitoring what is happening in that country estimate.
At the same time, it is obvious that the rapprochement of international players with Ankara encourages the Turkish President to continue at the same tempo, with the same behaviour.
The occupying Turkey is moving with violations in the Aegean, maintains a high-key aggressive rhetoric while in relation to Cyprus, the planning of imposing faits accomplis is underway. Both in Famagusta and in the EEZ. The information says that in Famagusta, the actions are done gradually, with small steps, but with a constant orientation of the colonization of the enclosed area.
At the same time in the EEZ, the Turkish presence also sustains the illegal and unreasonable claims of the occupying power. Reports say that the Ankara regime is investing in its involvement in natural gas and is attempting, always bypassing the Republic of Cyprus, to enter into an "informal" understanding with countries whose companies operate in our region.
The fact that Erdogan is under pressure in the run-up to the elections - the low percentages he secures - and the economic crisis, may lead him to extreme actions. And in this case he may extract the crisis in search of a weak link to prove his strength. It is for this reason that, as good connoisseurs of Turkish politics say, all those who are opposite the occupying power must be vigilant.
Letter on the "5"
After Turkey, which reacted almost immediately, the occupying regime made a démarche to the United Nations for the licensing by Nicosia of the "5" sea parcel of the Cyprus EEZ to the consortium ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum. A letter to the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, was sent on December 30 by the "representative" of the occupying regime in New York, Mehmet Dânâ. In it, he says that the licensing of "5" is "yet another blatant attempt to violate the inalienable and inherent rights of the Turkish Cypriot ''people'' to the natural wealth in and around the island". He goes on to say that "in the spirit of cooperation, the Turkish Cypriot side submitted an updated and expanded proposal on the issue of hydrocarbons on July 13, 2019"."
The representative of the occupying regime does not shy away from making threats. ''.. We will once again be forced to take the necessary measures to protect our legitimate rights and interests. It must also be borne in mind that any regional co-operation or forum on this issue that excludes the Turkish Cypriot side and Turkey, is unrealistic but also counterproductive and can serve no other purpose than to increase tension in the Eastern Mediterranean." The official of the pseudo-state says that "the Turkish Cypriot side, as co-owner of hydrocarbon resources in and around the island, is ready to participate in an ''Eastern Mediterranean Conference'', proposed by Turkey, which will take into account the legitimate rights and interests of all relevant parties and stakeholders in the region."
Rapprochement with US
The information brings the Americans and Turks to take a comprehensive approach to overcome their differences. It is believed that the American non-paper on the Eastmed pipeline was made to satisfy Ankara. The American intervention was a plan, which in recent times had been forgotten by all involved.
It is clear that despite the many difficulties that exist in the relations between the US and Turkey, Washington is keen to normalize. It is estimated to pave the way for the day after Erdogan's fall. The point, however, is that discussions have begun. What will happen to the S-400s, especially when Ankara does not want to mess with Moscow, is one of the big issues. The U.S., especially the deep state of the State Department, wants Turkey in the Western fold, and this will ensure this by satisfying Ankara's "demands" and claims in the region. Ukrainian should also be included in the equation. The Americans talk directly to the Russians, but they need support. Additional forces of support, as can the European Union and Turkey.
It's not just the U.S. that is approaching Ankara. Reports say that Germany, with a new government recently, does not intend to change Merkel's policy towards the occupying power. On the contrary, it will aim to upgrade economic relations. Spain is on the same path, as are other partners.
It is clear that all these bridges being built on Erdogan can be enjoyed by his successor in the event of a change, which will receive much more than him to support the West, but are currently being exploited by the current regime in Ankara.
ON WEDNESDAY IN ATHENS IOANNIS KASOULIDIS
The new Foreign Minister, Ioannis Kasoulides, will be in Athens next Wednesday for talks with his Greek counterpart, Nikos Dendias. On the agenda of the discussions that the two Foreign Ministers will have, will be the Cyprus issue, the Turkish moves in Famagusta and the EEZ, the Euro-Turkish and the Greek-Turkish ones. Further, the tripartite ones will be raised and it is expected that the issue will be raised with the American non-paper on the Eastmed pipeline. In view of the fact that it is his first trip to the Greek capital since taking office, Mr. Kasoulides will be received by the President of the Republic, Katerina Sakellaropoulou, and the Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
Tatar talks about political criteria for MOH
Four points in principle, the Turkish side claims have been agreed between the two negotiators. This is mentioned in the document of the occupying leader, Ersin Tatar, which is attached to the latest report of the Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, and concerns good offices (Cyprus).
According to the document, the G.G. has been informed by Mr. Tatar about this agreement, which concerns confidence-building measures, "as part of the bottom-up process". According to the document, in order to be applied, the following criteria must be met:
A) Be mutually agreed.
B) There should be mutual benefit.
C) To respect the equality of both sides.
D) It will not imply or imply the extension of the power of one side to the other.
The last two points refer to the Turkish logic of the "two entities", which are a basic axis of policy for the Turkish side.
A competent source, who was asked to comment on the above, pointed out that it is the usual attempt of the Turkish side to present everything as intergovernmental cooperation and that there are agreements. As the same source pointed out, none of this is wrong and of course the Technical Committees operate on an equal basis. He went on to say that whatever is done must be agreed and of course no one agrees if it has no benefit and the CBMs cannot be used as a vehicle for political pursuits. But these self-evident things, it is added, cannot be turned into a product of negotiation and agreement. He noted that they selectively record some data from the way the Technical Committees operate and try to integrate them into a supposed "bottom-up" approach.
