Filenews 14 November 2021 - by Angelos Nikolaou
Cyprus is vulnerable to climate change and with a view to 2030 a lot will have to change to avoid the consequences for tourism and the economy in general and the impact on our lives. The future of our island and the wider region depends directly on the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions and how to stop global warming leading to extreme weather events. Professor Costas Papanikolas, president of the Cyprus Institute, and advisor to President Anastasiades and special envoy on climate change issues, in an interview with "F", gives the real dimension of the issue that is not at all optimistic and refers to the actions that need to be taken in order for things to lead to better days for future generations. After his presence at the Glasgow summit, he points out that the increase in temperature is already leading to many disastrous consequences.
To reverse the situation, reforestation measures and to limit methane emissions are needed. It refers to the Initiative of Cyprus for the coordination of actions of the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, an area characterized as a hotspot. He warns that if immediate measures are not taken "the hottest days of the summer season will be the coolest days of the respective periods of the coming years. For Cyprus, beaches such as Lady's Mile are expected to disappear, while the areas of the Nile Delta will be flooded with sea water and salted. The question is where the 40 million people who live there will end up.
-What are the goals for tackling climate change, as redefined at COP26 in Glasgow?
-The World Leaders' Summit in Glasgow marked the launch of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26). The 197 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meet in the context of COP26, five years after the Treaty of Paris, which was the most important achievement of these conferences because it is an agreement with specific objectives.
COP26 focused mainly on assessing the progress made in implementing the Paris Agreement. The overarching goal is still to limit global warming to one and a half degrees Celsius.
The increase in temperature so far (1.1 C) leads to many devastating consequences. In the estimation of scientists most of them are aggravating, but not entirely destructive, and several of them, but not all of them, are reversible.
In addition, cop26 presents their programmes to countries that had not so far committed to timetables, such as India, or updated – revised programmes from the other countries. There were also important side agreements. The first concerns the protection of forests with a view to implementation in 2030 in order to reverse the destructive course until then and begin the positive course with reforestation. The second concerns the limitation of methane emissions, which is a gas much more aggravating than carbon dioxide. Methane is about 35 times more aggravating than carbon dioxide. It is worth noting that both agreements are important steps but to see radical change we need leaps and bounds.
-Can you make an initial assessment of the situation after Glasgow?
-I would say that there is progress but it is being achieved at a much slower pace than is required. Recent reports from the Climate Action Tracker examine the promises made by governments before and during COP26. It concludes that, in 2030, greenhouse gas emissions that heat the planet will still be twice as high as it takes to keep the temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Scientists argue that limiting heating to 1.5 degrees will prevent the most dangerous effects of climate change. But when analysing the real policies of governments - instead of commitments - the projected global warming is 2.7 C by 2100 according to the publication. I'm not optimistic. But the battle is not lost. We must activate all the forces we have. The determining factor will be the demand (its lack) of citizens for immediate, decisive action.
-Do you consider that Cyprus is able to meet these goals?
-Cyprus as a member of the European Union is committed and has developed a plan to achieve the objectives of the Paris Treaty. It is true that we are behind in its implementation, like most countries. The European Union has set targets that go beyond those of the Paris Agreement. The EU aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This requires that the current levels of greenhouse gas emissions be significantly reduced in the coming decades. As an interim step towards climate neutrality, the EU aims to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030, the Fit for 55 programme. Cyprus as an EU member state will be committed to this ambitious goal.
-How is the Cyprus Initiative included in this global effort? What response did you find in Glasgow?
-The Initiative of Cyprus for the coordination of actions of the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME), includes 18 countries with a population of 450 million and gas emissions similar to those of the EU and with increasing trends. The Initiative is of great interest due to the volume of emissions but also due to the fact that EMME is predicted by all models to be affected with great severity by the effects of climate change. For this reason, the area is characterized by the scientific community as a "hotspot".
This is a region that is politico-economically heterogeneous and unstable. It is an area of intense political, economic and social conflicts, with ongoing wars and civil strife. That is why any attempt to coordinate the countries of the region is considered important. It is also the region where a huge percentage of hydrocarbons, especially oil and natural gas, is the main source of wealth for many countries. These features make up an extremely sensitive and complex problem. It is therefore logical that this Initiative should generate enormous interest and, of course, extremely ambitious.
-How can the states of the region help each other?
-There will be collaborations at the design level. Also, technological solutions will be common. For example, the same desalination technology that will be applied in Cyprus, can be applied to Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Israel. There is also no need for conclusions to be repeated over and over again. There must be data sharing and sharing good practices.
Finally, there will be joint projects which are important. One such project is the energy networks, which will allow greater penetration of renewable energy sources, which now in Cyprus, for example, is problematic because we simply do not have storage technologies. These need cross-border cooperation. For the countries of the Middle East, the same applies to the distribution of water resources, since rivers and groundwater do not respect borders. Any planning that does not take into account the whole region leads to irrational solutions and very often to conflicts.
Reduction of rainfall by 30%-40%
-What will be the impact of climate change on the EMME region?
-Unfortunately, the increase in temperature in our region will be beyond normal, i.e. above the global average. If we continue with the pollutants without any measures, we will be driven to heating levels close to 5°C by the end of the century – which by far exceeds the target of 1.5 C. In such a scenario, the hottest days of the summer season will be the coolest days of the respective periods of the coming years. Large increases in both intensity and duration of heatwaves are expected. Extreme temperatures have the potential to become socially subversive, as the EMME region will likely be subjected to unprecedented extreme heat. In parts of the Middle East, maximum temperatures during heatwaves will approach 60°C, particularly in urban environments. Desertification and fires will be one of the results.
There will also be a reduction in rainfall from 30 to 40%. If there is no radical response, we will literally be led not just to destruction, but to the collapse of economies and a huge wave of immigration. The migration wave is estimated at tens of millions and this will lead to political and social instability. Such an event essentially means the collapse of the whole region. The consequences are really difficult to assess. I believe that they will be similar to what humanity has experienced during world wars.
Regional average sea levels are also projected to rise at a rate similar to that estimated for the global average, with the likely result that it will be close to up to one metre above the current level by the end of the 21st century. This would entail serious challenges for coastal communities, critical infrastructure and agriculture and would lead to the salinisation of coastal aquifers in the EMME region. For example, tourism will suffer irreparably, as beaches such as Lady's mile, for example, will disappear. In other neighbouring countries the impact will be much more dramatic. Much of the Nile Delta, an area home to 40 million people, will be flooded with sea water and everything will be salted. Where will these 40 million end up?
The cost of adaptation should not be considered a luxury
-Are we able to deal with the consequences of climate change?
-This question can be answered in a modular way, depending on who we define each time that "we are". First, as a global community? Second as an area of the Eastern Mediterranean – Middle East? Third as Cyprus. The answer in all three cases is emphatic 'yes'.
There is to a large extent an appropriate scientific understanding that allows us to move on to designing measures that tackle climate change at a global level. In this case, the framework is the Paris Convention to address and reduce greenhouse gases.
The individual treatment of the problems then becomes regional in nature. Otherwise climate change will occur in Greenland or in the countries of the tropical climates, otherwise in the northern countries and otherwise in geographical areas such as ours in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. There is no common solution here anymore. Each region should specify the actions and here lies the value of the Initiative since it specifies the effects as they will appear in Cyprus and the surrounding area.
At regional level, the solutions must be common, mainly for reasons of economy, but also because the problem often cannot be solved in isolation. Countries need to cooperate because the climate recognises no borders. Typical examples are the management of water resources and synergy in the production and distribution of energy with networks, which must be cross-border in order to be economically feasible. A good example is the electrical interconnection of countries such as Cyprus with Egypt and Greece. This will allow us to increase the use of renewable energy sources.
At the national level there are measures that each country alone can take. But even in these, there must be cooperation so that we do not all rediscover in a lack of way solutions that others have tried and have already learned to apply correctly. In other words, we must avoid mistakes that have been made elsewhere, through the exchange of information and good practice.
It is important to mention that the cost of adaptation is not large and should not be considered a luxury. On the contrary, the cost of not implementing these policies in the future will be too expensive or even unattainable.
Globally, climate change alleviation is governed by the Paris Treaty. However, recent publications (e.g. Washington Post) based on researches by leading scientists such as the Frenchman Philippe Ciais, who is also a professor at the Cyprus Institute, consider as unrealistic (deliberately underestimated) the official recording of pollutants in the atmosphere reported by various states. Thus, the objectives of the Paris Agreement are seen as over-optimistic because they are partly based on data that do not reveal the scale of the problem.
The path to 2030 determines what we will do
-How do you see the future of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region in 10 years and how in 30?
-The two are not independent. If we do not realise that the projects we hear about what needs to be achieved by 2050 must start to be implemented immediately, then either they will become much more expensive to implement or even unattainable.
So our path to 2030 will determine what we do in the next 20 years. But these are not different directions. The great danger is that there is a tendency to present ambitious plans for 2050, 2060 and 2070. The plans give the "feeling" that there is a deal with it, but unless very strong, rapid steps are taken by 2030, in my opinion the plans for 2050 and 2060 and 2070 will also fail. Care must be taken to ensure that thirty-year-old plans do not turn the wool over the eyes of the citizens that something will be done, when in reality the delay is disastrous.
The most important thing is what we achieve by 2030. It is an excellent initiative of the European Union for fit for 55. This is the way forward: to accelerate the 2030 targets with final achievement in 2050.
For our region, since it is a "hotspot" maybe 2050 will be too late. Many changes will be irreversible. The scientific community stresses that the Mediterranean and the Middle East, due to the particularity of its climate, is also the forerunner of the disasters that will follow worldwide. In our region we will see and feel climate change to evolve much faster and therefore many of its effects to be irreversible sooner.
An example of an irreversible phenomenon is the increase in the water level. The ice that is melting today will not be recreated anytime soon. It will take thousands or even hundreds of thousands of years to return to Greenland and Antarctica. And of course if the beaches are flooded they will remain flooded for thousands of years.
-Is the negative image reversible?
-The negative image is reversible to a large extent but not quickly. That is, if we manage to reduce greenhouse gases, the temperature will gradually decrease, too. But there are other effects that are unfortunately not reversible. The rise in the water level mentioned earlier is not reversible. But those that are reversible will also take decades to come back. If there will be a noticeable improvement, it will be in the twenty-second and twenty-third centuries. It is therefore better not to allow certain phenomena to occur.
